Serie A continues this weekend with an exciting lineup of fixtures, and we’ve selected three must-watch matchups that promise drama and intrigue.
Before diving into the action, let’s take a quick look at the latest outright odds. With just three points separating the top two, the title race looks set to go down to the wire. Inter Milan remain firm favourites at 2/7, while Napoli are available at 26/10. Atalanta sit third, nine points adrift, and unsurprisingly, they are priced at 80/1, while the rest of the pack are 250/1 or longer.
Click here for all the long-term Serie A outright markets
SATURDAY
AC MILAN v FIORENTINA – Click here to bet
Having faced city rivals Inter Milan for the fourth time this season in midweek for the first leg of their Coppa Italia semi-final, it remains to be seen how much that demanding fixture has taken out of AC Milan ahead of their crucial Serie A clash against Fiorentina on Saturday.
Currently sitting 9th in the table with 47 points from 30 matches (W13, D8, L9), AC Milan’s campaign has not gone as planned. Their recent resurgence with back-to-back league wins was halted last weekend by a disappointing 2-1 defeat away to Napoli. This result marked their fourth defeat in their last six league outings, highlighting their inconsistent form in recent weeks.
Despite these struggles, Milan will take confidence from their improving home form, where they have averaged 1.80 points per game this season. They have lost just once in their last five league matches at the San Siro, picking up three wins and a draw. Furthermore, their dominant head-to-head record against Fiorentina at home could prove decisive, with the Rossoneri aiming for their fifth consecutive home victory over the Viola.
Fiorentina, meanwhile, travel to Milan on the back of three consecutive wins in all competitions, hoping to reverse their fortunes at the San Siro. Sitting in 8th place with 51 points, they hold a four-point advantage over their hosts and remain firmly in contention for European football next season.
Last weekend’s hard-fought 1-0 victory over Atalanta made it back-to-back Serie A wins for Raffaele Palladino’s side. However, Fiorentina’s away form has been a major concern, with four straight defeats in all competitions, including three in the league. If they are to take something from this encounter, they must drastically improve their performances on the road.
Head-to-Head
AC Milan have dominated this fixture at the San Siro, winning their last four league meetings against Fiorentina. However, Fiorentina claimed a 2-1 victory in the reverse fixture earlier this season.
Betting
AC Milan 9/10
Draw 11/4
Fiorentina 3/1
Verdict
Milan’s inconsistent league form raises concerns, but their recent home performances and dominant head-to-head record against Fiorentina suggest they have the edge in this contest. Fiorentina’s struggles on the road make it difficult to back them here, especially against a Milan side eager to return to winning ways.
Suggested Bet: Full Time Result – AC Milan at 9/10
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SUNDAY
ATALANTA v LAZIO – Click here to bet
Atalanta host Lazio at the Gewiss Stadium this weekend in what promises to be a fascinating contest given how competitive this season has been and what’s at stake in terms of European qualification.
Coming off consecutive league defeats, most recently a 1-0 loss away to Fiorentina, the Nerazzurri have fallen away somewhat in terms of form in recent weeks but still find themselves in the top three with 58 points from 30 matches overall. Winless in their last six matches at home in all competitions, something does seem amiss within Atalanta’s camp, as they have claimed a meagre three points from a possible twelve league appearances in Bergamo. With form very much against them at present, Gian Piero Gasperini will need to dig deep to get his side out of their current slump. Unbeaten in their last two meetings against Lazio, they will certainly look to replicate that once again this weekend as they attempt to hold onto that all-important third spot.
Despite sitting 7th in the table, Lazio remain firmly in contention for a place in next season’s Champions League. With just four points separating them from fourth-placed Bologna, there is plenty to play for when it comes to Lazio’s ambitions this season. Marco Baroni’s side enter Sunday’s clash off the back of a 1-1 draw at home to Torino and, much like their hosts this weekend, appear a bit flat of late, perhaps showing signs of seasonal fatigue. Lazio have failed to register a win in their last three league appearances, with two draws and a defeat.
On the road, Lazio average 1.68 points per game, boasting the fourth-best away record in the league. With 25 points from a possible 45 in their 15 matches on their travels, they will be hoping to return to winning ways after their most recent road trip resulted in a 5-0 demolition at the hands of Bologna on Match day 29.
Head-to-Head
Atalanta are unbeaten in their last two meetings with Lazio, recording a win and a draw. Their most recent clash ended in a 1-1 stalemate in the reverse fixture earlier this season.
Betting
Atalanta 8/11
Draw 3/1
Lazio 15/4
Verdict
Atalanta’s disappointing home form is a concern, but their recent success against Lazio in Bergamo could offer a boost of confidence. Lazio, despite a strong away record, have struggled for results recently. This matchup is finely balanced, and with both teams eager for a turnaround, a draw seems like a plausible outcome.
Suggested Bet: Full Time Result – Draw at 3/1
AS ROMA v JUVENTUS – Click here to bet
The battle for a top-four finish in Serie A intensifies at the Stadio Olimpico on Sunday evening, where Roma and Juventus face off in a crucial encounter.
Following a 1-0 win away to Lecce last weekend, Claudio Ranieri’s side find themselves sixth overall with 52 points, just four points adrift of Bologna, who are currently holding fourth place. With a winning streak of seven consecutive league matches, the Giallorossi could not have asked for a better time to take on the Bianconeri. Boasting an average of 2.01 points per game on home soil this campaign, claiming 31 points from a possible 45, they will be quietly optimistic about maintaining their recent unbeaten run of two against the mighty Juve.
While Juventus may be entering Sunday’s clash on a winning note after their 1-0 victory at home to Genoa last Saturday, their recent league form certainly doesn’t make for great reading. With a slew of defeats along the way, the Black and Whites have managed just three points in their last three outings, having suffered heavy defeats to both Atalanta and Fiorentina before their recent bounce-back win last weekend. Currently in 5th place with 55 points, just three points above Lazio, this meeting could have significant implications. Another heavy defeat for Juventus could potentially see them surrender their spot to Lazio, a less-than-ideal scenario knowing that after this weekend, there will be just seven matches remaining in Serie A.
With two league wins from their last six on the road, Igor Tudor’s men will be aware of their rather uncharacteristic run of form. However, their overall record away from home speaks for itself, losing just twice overall while claiming 24 points from a possible 42—a rather respectable 1.71 points per game.
Head-to-Head
Roma are unbeaten in their last two league meetings with Juventus, both ending in draws. The reverse fixture earlier this season finished in a goalless stalemate.
Betting
AS Roma 29/20
Draw 22/10
Juventus 85/40
Verdict
The Giallorossi will be confident of extending their unbeaten run against Juventus, bolstered by their solid home form and an impressive seven-game winning streak. Despite Juventus’ solid record on the road, I believe Roma are the team to beat. Backing the hosts to avoid defeat in a match with three goals or fewer has proven successful in four of the last five encounters, and that’s the route I’m backing.
Suggested Bet: Double Chance and Total – AS Roma/Draw and Under 3.5 at 8/11
Click here for all this weekend’s Italian Football action
Note: All prices correct at the time of writing but are subject to change
