Week 34 kicks off this Friday, and we’ve highlighted three fixtures to cover the weekend. Here are my thoughts and selections for your consideration.
Before we do, here’s a quick look at the latest title odds. With Napoli and Inter Milan locked level on points at the top, it’s shaping up to be a two-horse race for the Scudetto. Inter Milan remain favourites at 8/10, with Napoli close behind at 1/1. The rest of the pack are chasing at 250/1 or greater.
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FRIDAY
ATALANTA v US LECCE – Click here to bet
We begin this weekend’s football action a little earlier with Friday’s clash, as Atalanta host US Lecce at the Gewiss Stadium. Currently sitting 3rd in the table with 64 points from 33 matches, Gian Piero Gasperini’s side have rediscovered some much needed form in recent weeks, having previously endured a run of three consecutive league defeats. Last weekend’s 1-0 win away to AC Milan marked back-to-back victories for the Black and Blues, putting them in a strong position for a Champions League berth with just five matches remaining.
Interestingly, Atalanta have performed better on the road than at home this season. With four home league defeats to date, Gasperini’s men have claimed 28 points from 16 matches at the Gewiss Stadium, scoring 31 goals and conceding 19. However, with just one win in their last eight home games across all competitions (D3, L4), the hosts have struggled to make their home ground a fortress. That said, they did manage to end that poor run with a 2-0 victory over Bologna in their most recent home fixture — a result they’ll be eager to build on as we enter the business end of the season.
Coming off yet another disappointing result at the weekend — a 3-0 home defeat to Como — US Lecce remain winless in their last ten league appearances (D3, L7). With form very much against them at present, it’s no surprise to see the Yellow and Reds languishing near the bottom of the table in 17th place, with just 26 points. They are very much embroiled in the relegation battle, sitting only one point above both Venezia and Empoli, who currently occupy places in the bottom three.
Away from home, things haven’t gone much better for Marco Giampaolo’s side. They’ve suffered three consecutive defeats on the road, taking their total to eleven away league losses this season. Overall, Lecce have managed to claim a meagre 11 points from 16 away matches — a statistic that does little to inspire confidence ahead of their trip to Bergamo.
Head-to-Head
Atalanta have won each of their last three meetings with Lecce without conceding a goal, including a dominant 4-0 victory in the reverse fixture earlier this season.
Betting
Atalanta 2/7
Draw 5/1
Lecce 10/1
Verdict
Atalanta appear to have turned a corner at a crucial point in the season, and their recent 2-0 win over Bologna at home suggests they’re regaining confidence at the Gewiss Stadium. Gasperini’s side also boast a strong defensive record in this particular fixture, having won their last three meetings against Lecce without conceding a goal. For that reason, I’m backing the hosts to win to nil.
Suggested Bet: Atalanta To Win To Nil – Yes at 19/20
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SUNDAY
INTER MILAN v AS ROMA – Click here to bet
Originally set for Saturday, this fixture was moved to Sunday out of respect for the Pope’s funeral taking place that day. Inter Milan, reeling from a 3-0 midweek defeat to AC Milan that saw them crash out of the Coppa Italia semi-finals 4-1 on aggregate, now face a crucial stretch across multiple competitions. With a Champions League semi-final first leg away to Barcelona looming next Wednesday, and currently level with Napoli at the top of the Serie A table on 71 points, the Nerazzurri will look to bounce back and keep the pressure on in the title race when they welcome AS Roma to the San Siro this Sunday.
Inter are also coming off a disappointing 1-0 league defeat away to Bologna last weekend—a result that ended their 13-match unbeaten run across all competitions (W9, D4). Domestically, the reigning champions have been solid, losing just once in their last eight league outings, with five wins and two draws during that stretch.
At the San Siro, Simone Inzaghi’s men have been a force to be reckoned with. They are unbeaten in eleven of their last twelve home matches in all competitions and are currently on a five-game winning streak in the league. Boasting the best home record in Serie A this season, Inter have won 12 of their 16 home games, drawing three and losing just once.
Meanwhile, AS Roma sit 7th in the table with 57 points but currently top the Serie A form charts. Last weekend’s narrow 1-0 win over Verona extended Claudio Ranieri’s side’s unbeaten league run to 17 matches. They’ve taken an impressive 26 points from the last 30 available (W8, D2), making them one of the most in-form teams in the country.
On the road, Roma have collected 22 points from 16 matches (W5, D7, L4). Their most recent away result was a 1-1 draw against Lazio in the Derby della Capitale, extending their unbeaten away streak in Serie A to eight games (W5, D3).
Head-to-Head
Inter are unbeaten in their last four league meetings with AS Roma, winning all four, including a 1-0 victory in the reverse fixture. They also claimed a 1-0 win in this same fixture at the San Siro last season.
Betting
Inter Milan 15/20
Draw 28/10
AS Roma 15/4
Verdict
Inter’s formidable home form and recent dominance over Roma give them the upper hand despite a demanding fixture schedule. The Nerazzurri have won their last five league games at the San Siro and are unbeaten in their last four meetings with Roma. Ranieri’s men are in excellent form, but this represents their toughest test yet. Inter should have just enough to edge a close contest, even with European distractions looming.
Suggested Bet: Full Time Result – Inter Milan at 15/20
VENEZIA v AC MILAN – Click here to bet
This Sunday, Venezia take on AC Milan at the Stadio Pierluigi Penzo in an early afternoon kick-off. The hosts are desperate for a positive result as they aim to claw their way out of the bottom three. Currently 18th with 25 points, the Winged Lions come off a competitive 2-2 draw away to Empoli last weekend—a result that extended their unbeaten run to three matches (W1, D2).
Returning home will be a welcome relief for Eusebio Di Francesco and his men, who have claimed just 8 points on the road this season. In their most recent home outing, Venezia returned to winning ways with a 1-0 victory over Monza, bringing their tally at the Pierluigi Penzo to 17 points from 4 wins, 5 draws, and 7 defeats. Matches in Venice often produce few goals; 12 of their 16 home games this season have seen two or fewer goals, including each of the last eight — a statistic worth considering this weekend.
Returning from their Coppa Italia semi-final second leg against local rivals Inter Milan on Wednesday — a match they won 3-0 to progress to the final 4-1 on aggregate — AC Milan now head to Venice. The Rossoneri will be hoping to get back to winning ways in the league after their latest outing ended in a 1-0 home defeat to Atalanta.
Currently 9th on the table with 51 points, AC Milan have struggled recently on the domestic front, collecting just seven points from a possible fifteen in their last five league matches (W2, D1, L2). With only five matches remaining, the Rossoneri are running out of time to push for European qualification next season, sitting 8 points adrift of the top five with a maximum of 15 points still achievable.
On the road, Milan’s record stands at seven wins, two draws, and seven defeats, earning 23 points from a possible 48 away this season. Unfortunately, inconsistency has plagued their away performances, reflected in just two wins and three defeats in their last five league matches on the road. However, they did redeem themselves with a comprehensive 4-0 victory against Udinese in their latest away fixture — a result they will hope to replicate this weekend.
Head-to-Head
Earlier this season, AC Milan delivered a commanding 4-0 victory at the San Siro, marking their fourth consecutive win against Venezia. Additionally, Milan have kept a clean sheet in each of their last three encounters with Venezia.
Betting
Venezia 15/4
Draw 3/1
AC Milan 15/20
Verdict
This Sunday’s match is a must-win for both teams, but for very different reasons. Venezia need points to climb out of the relegation zone, while AC Milan are fighting to keep their hopes alive for European qualification. The hosts have shown some spirit recently, but with Milan holding a comprehensive record against them, it’s hard to look past the Rossoneri given what transpired between these two sides earlier this season.
Suggested Bet: Full Time Result – AC Milan at 15/20
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Note: All prices correct at the time of writing but are subject to change
