Serie A returns from the international break with three intriguing fixtures headlining the weekend action. Saturday’s double bill sees struggling Fiorentina host Juventus in Florence before Napoli welcome a new-look Atalanta side to the Stadio Diego Armando Maradona under the lights. On Sunday, attention turns to San Siro for the latest edition of the Derby della Madonnina as Inter Milan face city rivals AC Milan in a blockbuster clash that could have major implications for the title race.
In the outright market, Inter Milan remain favourites at 83/100 after extending their unbeaten run before the break, with Napoli next best at 9/2. AC Milan stay firmly in contention at 5/1, while AS Roma follow at 9/1. Juventus continue to hover just outside the main pack at 18/1, with the rest of the field available at 66/1 or longer.
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SATURDAY
FIORENTINA v JUVENTUS – Click here to bet
Saturday’s early evening clash at the Stadio Artemio Franchi sees Fiorentina host Juventus in a meeting between two sides desperate for momentum heading into the festive stretch of the Serie A season. The Viola have endured a miserable campaign to date and sit bottom of the table, while Juventus continue to search for consistency under new boss Luciano Spalletti.
Fiorentina enter the weekend rooted to the foot of the standings on just five points after a 2-2 draw away at Genoa, Paolo Vanoli’s first game in charge since replacing Stefano Pioli. It was a welcome point after three straight defeats, but the defensive frailties that have plagued their season were again exposed. La Viola remain without a win from their opening eleven league matches (W0, D5, L6) and have conceded in each of their last six Serie A outings. At home, the numbers make for grim reading, just one point from five league fixtures (D1, L4), with five goals scored and ten conceded at the Franchi. Vanoli will hope the international break provided some stability as he looks to steer Fiorentina away from early relegation fears.
Juventus, meanwhile, travel to Florence sitting sixth on 19 points after a frustrating goalless draw at home to Torino in the previous round. The Bianconeri have drawn their last two matches and remain unbeaten since Spalletti took over from Igor Tudor, though performances have been far from convincing. The Italian tactician’s reign began with a 2-1 win away at Cremonese, followed by a 1-1 draw in Europe against Sporting, but their failure to find the net in their last domestic outing raised old concerns about attacking fluidity. Away from home, Juve have struggled to impose themselves, winning just once in their last five trips across all competitions (W1, D1, L3) and scoring only four goals on their Serie A travels this season. Spalletti will be wary of his side slipping back into the kind of winless streak that derailed their early campaign form.
Head-to-Head
Fiorentina took four points from a possible six against Juventus last season, drawing 2-2 in Turin before thumping the Bianconeri 3-0 in this fixture. At home, La Viola have lost just once in their last four meetings with Juve (W2, D1, L1), and recent contests in Florence have generally been tight, only one of the last seven has seen more than two goals scored.
Betting
Fiorentina 11/4
Draw 12/5
Juventus 21/20
Verdict
Given how both sides have fared this season, it’s difficult to trust either with confidence. Fiorentina’s form at home has been woeful, but Juventus have yet to convince away from Turin. This has all the makings of a low-scoring affair, with one moment of quality likely to separate them.
Suggested Bet: Both Teams to Score and Totals – Under 2.5 and No at 5/4
NAPOLI v ATALANTA – Click here to bet
Saturday’s late evening Serie A fixture sees Napoli welcome Atalanta to the Stadio Diego Armando Maradona, with both sides desperate to find some rhythm after stuttering starts to their respective campaigns. Napoli are winless in three across all competitions and face growing pressure under Antonio Conte, while Atalanta arrive in Naples in managerial limbo but with a chance to spark a turnaround of their own.
Napoli come into the weekend sitting fourth on 22 points following a disappointing 2-0 defeat away to Bologna before the international break, their third consecutive game without scoring. Conte’s men have looked uncharacteristically flat in attack in recent weeks, and while their overall record remains solid (W7, D1, L3), the mood around the Maradona has cooled. At home, the Partenopei have been strong this season, winning four of five league matches and remaining unbeaten in all competitions (W5, D2). They’ve scored nine and conceded just four in Serie A at home, but the stalemate against Como in their latest Serie A home appearance ended a four-match home winning streak. Conte’s future has been a topic of speculation after five defeats in all competitions this term, a stark contrast to last season’s title-winning form, and the pressure will intensify if Napoli fail to fire again here.
Atalanta, meanwhile, find themselves down in 13th place on 13 points but will hope for a fresh start under newly appointed manager Raffaele Palladino, who replaces Ivan Jurić following week eleven’s 3-0 home defeat to Sassuolo. Palladino’s immediate task will be to restore belief to a squad that’s managed just two league wins all season. The Bergamo side have struggled to hit their stride, drawing seven of their 11 Serie A fixtures so far and scoring only 13 goals. Away from home, Atalanta have taken just two points from their last three domestic trips, though they did enjoy a morale-boosting win in Europe at Marseille before the break. Still, the contrast to last season, when they’d already won seven league games by this stage, underlines the regression that’s set in.
Head-to-Head
Atalanta have enjoyed their visits to Naples in recent years, winning three of their last four away matches against Napoli, including a 3-0 triumph in this fixture last season. Napoli did win the reverse meeting 3-2 in Bergamo, but the overall trend favours La Dea on their travels. Recent clashes between these two at the Maradona have tended to be one-sided affairs, with only one team scoring in four of their last five in all competitions.
Betting
Napoli 6/5
Draw 9/4
Atalanta 12/5
Verdict
This feels like a tricky one to call. Napoli have been strong at home but are badly out of form in front of goal, while Atalanta arrive with a point to prove and a potential new manager to bounce on the horizon. Given recent history and Napoli’s scoring struggles, the visitors look the value play, even if only to avoid defeat.
Suggested Bet: Atalanta Double Chance (Win or Draw) and under 4.5 goals at 83/100
SUNDAY
INTER MILAN v AC MILAN – Click here to bet
We round off the Serie A weekend with a blockbuster Derby della Madonnina as Inter Milan and AC Milan lock horns under the lights at the San Siro. Only two points separate the sides heading into Sunday night, with both teams very much in form and eyeing the top of the table.
Cristian Chivu’s men maintained their grip on first place before the international break with a 2-0 home win over Lazio, their fourth consecutive victory in all competitions. The Nerazzurri have been ruthless at home this season, winning six on the spin in all competitions and collecting 15 points from a possible 18 on league duty at San Siro. They’ve scored 17 and conceded just four at home, but this one comes at a tricky time, with a crucial Champions League trip to Atletico Madrid looming just three days later.
For AC Milan, the mood is equally positive. Massimiliano Allegri’s side remain unbeaten since their shock opening-day loss to Cremonese and are now on an eleven-match unbeaten run in all competitions (W7 D4). They drew 2-2 away at Parma before the break, their third straight stalemate on the road, but overall they’ve shown strong resilience. Away from home they’ve taken nine points from a possible fifteen this season, scoring eight and conceding just three, and remain unbeaten on their travels (W2 D3).
Head-to-Head
AC Milan have enjoyed the better of recent meetings, going unbeaten in the last five encounters with Inter across all competitions (W3 D2). That run includes a 3-0 Coppa Italia semi-final win last season, while in Serie A they claimed a 2-1 victory in this fixture before holding Inter to a 1-1 draw in the reverse meeting. The Rossoneri have also won their last three ‘away derbies’ at San Siro, with Inter’s last home success in the fixture coming back in 2023.
Betting
Inter Milan 91/100
Draw 53/20
AC Milan 3/1
Verdict
Both sides arrive in excellent form, but recent history gives Milan the edge in this fixture. Inter’s relentless home form can’t be ignored, yet the timing of this clash, with a European trip on the horizon, could just tilt things slightly in Allegri’s favour. Milan look well-balanced, confident, and capable of frustrating the hosts once again.
Suggested Bet: AC Milan Double Chance (Win or Draw) & Both Teams to Score at 43/20
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Note: All prices correct at the time of writing but are subject to change
