Week 37 arrives with the Scudetto race on a knife edge and European places still up for grabs. Napoli’s grip on top spot has loosened to a single point after last weekend’s slip-up, with Inter Milan now breathing down their neck. As we head into the penultimate round of the season, every match counts for those chasing glory or a coveted European place. Here are my thoughts on three riveting fixtures this weekend, along with suggested bets to help guide your selections.
First, a quick look at the latest title odds: Napoli are no longer runaway favourites, now priced at 1/3, with Inter closing in fast at 9/4 as they aim to snatch glory in dramatic fashion.
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SATURDAY
GENOA v ATALANTA – Click here to bet
Saturday’s only Serie A fixture sees Genoa welcome Champions League-bound Atalanta to the Stadio Luigi Ferraris. With Genoa sitting 13th in the standings and effectively safe from relegation, the Ligurian side will be playing for pride as the season winds down. Their recent form has been modest at best, managing just two points from their last five matches (D2, L3). Last weekend’s 2-2 draw against league leaders Napoli offered a minor reprieve following three consecutive defeats, but with no league win in over a month, Genoa are limping to the finish line.
Home form has also dipped, with back-to-back defeats against Lazio and AC Milan, conceding twice in each match. Patrick Vieira’s men have been vulnerable defensively in front of their own fans, conceding 22 goals across 18 matches and winning only five times this campaign.
Atalanta, on the other hand, are currently on an unbeaten run of five in Serie A (W4, D1) and are flying at present. Their 2-1 victory over Roma on Monday secured Champions League football next season, taking them to 71 points with two games to spare. With third place now locked in, Gian Piero Gasperini’s side may rotate slightly, though confidence will be soaring regardless.
The Bergamo outfit have been the best away team in the division, collecting 39 points from 18 matches (W12, D3, L3), including four clean sheet wins from their last five on the road.
Head-to-Head
Atalanta have dominated this fixture in recent years. They thrashed Genoa 5-1 in the reverse meeting and have now won three straight against them, including a 4-1 away victory last season. In fact, Atalanta are unbeaten in their last ten matches against Genoa (W6, D4).
Betting
Genoa 4/1
Draw 29/10
Atalanta 7/10
Verdict
Even if Atalanta rest a few key players, their away record and historical dominance over Genoa make them worthy favourites here. With Genoa struggling to win and Atalanta still brimming with confidence, the visitors should claim a positive result in what is likely to be a high scoring affair.
Suggested Bet: Double Chance and Total – Draw/Atalanta and Over 2.5 at 21/20
SUNDAY
AS ROMA v AC MILAN – Click here to bet
A pivotal encounter takes place at the Stadio Olimpico where Roma host AC Milan in what could be a decisive battle in the race for European places. Roma were left reeling after Monday’s 2-1 defeat to Atalanta – a result that not only halted their seven-match unbeaten league run but also dealt a blow to their Champions League ambitions. Now sixth on 63 points, the Giallorossi trail Juventus in fourth by a single point and desperately need a win to stay in contention.
Fortunately for Roma, their home form remains exceptional. Unbeaten in their last 16 matches in all competitions at the Olimpico (W14, D2), Claudio Ranieri’s side have been particularly solid defensively, conceding just 14 goals at home in the league. Their last home defeat dates all the way back to December, underlining just how formidable they’ve become in the capital.
Milan arrive off the back of a solid 3-1 win over Bologna, their third league victory in a row, but they still sit 8th with 60 points. With limited room for error, Sérgio Conceição’s team must win to keep their slim hopes of European qualification alive. The Rossoneri have been impressive on the road too, scoring 30 goals in 18 games and claiming nine wins away from San Siro.
Given what’s at stake for both teams and the attacking quality on display, this clash promises to be full of intensity and attacking intent.
Head-to-Head
These sides have met twice already this season – a 1-1 draw in Serie A and a 3-1 Coppa Italia win for Milan in February. The Rossoneri also won this fixture 2-1 last season at the Olimpico, meaning they are unbeaten in their last three meetings against Roma on the domestic front.
Betting
AS Roma 1/1
Draw 11/4
AC Milan 27/10
Verdict
With both sides in need of a win and possessing the firepower to score, this has all the ingredients of an entertaining, high-stakes encounter. While Roma’s strong home record could tilt the balance in their favour in the outright market, I prefer a more cautious approach—backing the hosts to avoid defeat, with both teams getting on the scoresheet.
Suggested Bet: Double Chance and Both teams to Score – AS Roma/Draw and Yes at 11/10
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INTER MILAN v LAZIO – Click here to bet
Fresh off their Champions League semi-final triumph over Barcelona, Inter Milan return to league duty with silverware still in their sights domestically. Inter trail Napoli by just one point at the top of Serie A with two games remaining, following a composed 2-0 win away to Torino last weekend. With momentum and motivation on their side, Simone Inzaghi’s men will view this home fixture against top-four hopefuls Lazio as a must-win if they are to reclaim the Scudetto.
Inter have been the most dominant home side in the league this season, collecting 42 points from 18 games at the San Siro (W13, D3, L2). They’ve netted a league-high 38 goals on home soil and remain defensively sound with just 19 conceded. Their squad depth and confidence – especially after eliminating Barcelona in Europe – should see them fired up again this weekend.
Lazio, meanwhile are still clinging to a top-four place. Level on points with Juventus (64), they sit fifth on goal difference and could still potentially miss out on Europe entirely should results go against them. Marco Baroni’s team extended their unbeaten run to six in all competitions with a 1-1 draw against Juve, and they’ve been excellent away from home, winning 11 of their 18 matches. However, they will be wary of an Inter side who have already beaten them twice this season – a 6-0 demolition in the league and a 2-0 win in the Coppa Italia.
Head-to-Head
Inter have had Lazio’s number this season, winning both meetings without conceding. Last season’s corresponding fixture ended in a 1-1 draw, but Inter have now won five of the last six against the Biancocelesti.
Betting
Inter Milan 13/20
Draw 16/5
Lazio 4/1
Verdict
Inter look revitalised and full of confidence. Lazio have been strong on the road, but this may be a challenge too far given Inter’s recent form, home strength, and dominance in the head-to-head.
Suggested Bet: Full Time Result – inter Milan at 13/20
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Note: All prices correct at the time of writing but are subject to change
