Serie A returns this weekend with a thrilling set of fixtures, and we’ve picked out three key matchups you won’t want to miss.
Before we dive into the games, let’s quickly check the latest outright odds. With just three points between the top two, the title race is shaping up to be a nail-biter. Inter Milan remain the strong favourites at 1/4, while Napoli are priced at 28/10. Atalanta sit third, 10 points behind, and are priced at 80/1, with the rest of the pack sitting at 500/1 or longer.
Click here for all the long-term Serie A outright markets
SATURDAY
INTER MILAN v CAGLIARI – Click here to bet
Inter Milan return to domestic action this Saturday as they host Cagliari at the Giuseppe Meazza, sandwiched between two demanding European fixtures. After securing a 2-1 win in the first leg against Bayern Munich on Tuesday, and with the return leg coming up next week, Simone Inzaghi’s men face the delicate task of balancing priorities at a pivotal stage of the season.
Despite the packed calendar, Inter remain firmly in control of the Serie A title race. The Nerazzurri currently top the table with 68 points, holding a narrow three-point cushion over second-placed Napoli. Their domestic campaign has been defined by consistency and attacking flair, boasting 20 wins, 8 draws, and only 3 defeats. Inter also lead the league in goals scored, having found the net 69 times—more than any other side in the division.
Their home ground has been a fortress for Inzaghi’s men, who have secured 36 points from a possible 45 in Milan. Last weekend’s 2-2 draw away to Parma extended their unbeaten league run to six matches (four wins and two draws), with their last defeat in Serie A coming back on match day 25 against Juventus in Turin.
As Inter focus on maintaining their lead at the summit while managing squad fatigue, their visitors will be hoping to capitalise. Cagliari will travel to Milan amid a tense relegation battle. Currently sitting 15th in the standings with 30 points, the Sardinian side remain part of the ongoing conversation surrounding the drop. With seven games still to play, Davide Nicola’s men are just six points above the bottom three and far from safe.
Cagliari’s away form leaves much to be desired—they’ve picked up just two wins on the road all season, suffering eight defeats in the process. While last weekend’s 0-0 draw at Empoli did put an end to a two-game losing run away from home, a visit to the league leaders represents a far greater challenge.
Head-to-Head
Inter Milan won 3-0 in the reverse fixture this season, while last season’s encounter finished 2-2 in Milan.
Betting
Inter Milan 1/3
Draw 9/2
Cagliari 17/2
Verdict
While Cagliari will aim to frustrate and snatch a point to aid their survival bid, Inter’s focus on the title—regardless of rotation—should see them through. I expect a clinical performance from the hosts as they aim to keep their grip on first place intact.
Suggested Bet: Handicap: Inter Milan -1.5 at 19/20
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SUNDAY
ATALANTA v BOLOGNA – Click here to bet
All eyes will be on the Gewiss Stadium this Sunday as Atalanta welcome Bologna in what promises to be a pivotal clash in the race for Champions League qualification. With just a single point separating the two sides in the Serie A standings, the stakes could hardly be higher heading into this top-four showdown.
Atalanta currently occupy 3rd place with 58 points but enter this crucial encounter in worrying form. Gian Piero Gasperini’s men have lost three consecutive Serie A matches, including a disappointing 1-0 defeat at home to Lazio last weekend. Their recent slump has not only seen their Champions League spot come under threat but has also exposed growing vulnerabilities—particularly in front of their home crowd.
The Black and Blues haven’t won a league game at the Gewiss Stadium since late December—a worrying stretch that includes three draws and back-to-back defeats in their last five Serie A home outings. Once considered a fortress, their Bergamo base has become a source of frustration, and they’ll need a strong showing to halt the slide against an in-form Bologna side.
In stark contrast, Bologna arrive in Bergamo in outstanding form. Under Vincenzo Italiano, the visitors have surged into the top four with 57 points and are unbeaten in their last six league games. Monday night’s 1-1 draw against Napoli marked the first time they dropped points in that stretch, having previously racked up five consecutive victories.
Their away form has been just as impressive. Bologna have won their last two league matches on the road—both without conceding—against Verona and Venezia. In fact, they have suffered only three away defeats all season. The rest of their 15 away outings have seen them remain unbeaten, picking up six wins and six draws. With balance, structure, and confidence coursing through the squad, Bologna will be quietly confident of taking something from their trip to Bergamo.
Head-to-Head
The two sides have met twice already this season, with Bologna remaining unbeaten on both occasions. First, they drew 1-1 in the Serie A reverse fixture, followed by a 1-0 victory away to Atalanta in the Coppa Italia.
Betting
Atalanta 19/20
Draw 26/10
Bologna 29/10
Verdict
While Atalanta are in desperate need of a response, Bologna’s current form—particularly on the road—cannot be ignored. If the hosts fail to find their attacking rhythm early on, they could once again find themselves on the wrong side of the result.
Suggested Bet: Both Teams to Score – Yes at 17/20
LAZIO v AS ROMA – Click here to bet
The weekend concludes with a bang as Lazio host Roma in the always-fiery Derby della Capitale at the Stadio Olimpico on Sunday evening. With both clubs firmly in the hunt for European qualification—and potentially even a top-four finish—this latest edition of the Rome derby carries more weight than just city bragging rights.
Lazio come into this clash buoyed by a hard-fought 1-0 win away to Atalanta last weekend, a result that lifted them to sixth in the Serie A table with 55 points. Marco Baroni’s men now sit just two points off fourth-placed Bologna, keeping their Champions League hopes alive. With 16 wins, 7 draws, and 8 defeats this season, Lazio have shown flashes of quality, but a dip in consistency—especially at home—has prevented them from cementing a top-four place.
While the Eagles are unbeaten in their last four matches at the Olimpico, three consecutive home draws have proven costly in the race for Europe. Those missed opportunities have kept them from breaking into the top five, and with Europa League commitments looming—Lazio face Bodø/Glimt in the quarter-final second leg just four days later—Baroni faces a tricky balancing act between continental ambitions and domestic urgency.
On the other side of the capital divide, AS Roma arrive at the derby in sparkling form. Claudio Ranieri’s revitalized Giallorossi side held Juventus to a 1-1 draw last time out, extending their unbeaten league run to an impressive 15 matches. During that stretch, Roma have won eleven and drawn four, catapulting themselves into serious contention for a European finish.
Currently sitting 7th on 53 points—just one place behind their arch-rivals—Roma know that a win on Sunday would see them leapfrog Lazio and narrow the four-point gap to the top four. With seven games to go, they remain firmly in the hunt for Champions League football next season.
Roma’s away form has been central to their recent resurgence. The Giallorossi are unbeaten in their last seven league games on the road, picking up 17 of a possible 21 points. Even more impressively, they head into Sunday’s derby on a run of five straight Serie A away wins—form that gives them every reason to believe they can conquer enemy territory.
Head-to-Head
AS Roma are unbeaten in their last two league meetings with Lazio, with both matches ending in wins in Rome. The reverse fixture earlier this season saw the Giallorossi win 2-0, while last season’s league encounter at the Stadio Olimpico ended in a 0-0 draw.
Betting
Lazio 1810
Draw 9/4
AS Roma 17/10
Verdict
Lazio’s Europa League distraction and their recent struggles to kill off games at home could open the door for Roma to continue their strong form. However, in derbies like this, form often counts for little. A tense, hard-fought draw could be on the cards.
Suggested Bet: Full Time Result – Draw at 9/4
Click here for all this weekend’s Italian Football action
Note: All prices correct at the time of writing but are subject to change
