Serie A action continues this weekend, and we turn our attention to three exciting fixtures, offering insights and potential betting options for your consideration.
Before diving into the match previews, let’s take a look at the latest outright odds: Inter Milan remain the favourites to defend their Serie A title at 8/10, with current league leaders Napoli close behind at 5/4. Third-placed Atalanta are available at 11/1, while the rest of the field is priced at 150/1 or higher.
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SATURDAY
ATALANTA v TORINO – Click here to bet
Atalanta will aim to strengthen their push for the top of the table when they host Torino at the Gewiss Stadium on Saturday. Gian Piero Gasperini’s side currently sit 3rd in Serie A with 46 points from 22 matches, having bounced back to winning ways last weekend with a hard-fought 2-1 victory away to Como. Atalanta head into Saturday’s clash following a 2-2 draw away to Barcelona in the Champions League midweek. While they have secured a playoff spot in the next round, they were unfortunate to miss out on a top eight finish, ultimately placing ninth. Their attacking prowess has been evident, with 48 goals scored this season, a significant portion of which have come at home. With 22 points from 10 home matches, they will be keen to extend their strong record as they continue their pursuit of league leaders Napoli and Inter Milan.
Atalanta have been prolific at home, scoring 28 goals at an impressive rate of 2.8 per game while conceding 15 at an average of 1.5 per match. Both teams have found the net in 90% of Atalanta’s home games this season (9 out of 10), while Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of those fixtures (8 out of 10).
Torino, on the other hand, secured a much-needed victory last weekend, registering their first league win in six games with a 2-0 triumph over Cagliari. With 26 points from 22 matches, Torino find themselves mid-table in 10th place but have struggled with consistency, particularly away from home. Paolo Vanoli’s side will be hoping to build on their recent victory, but they face a tough challenge against an in-form Atalanta side. Given Atalanta’s attacking quality and Torino’s defensive frailties at times, the visitors appear to have their hands full this weekend.
On the road, Torino have scored 14 goals, averaging 1.27 per game, while conceding 16 at a rate of 1.45 per match. Three or more goals have been scored in six of their 11 away games, a 55% occurrence rate.
Head-to-Head
Earlier this season, Torino secured a 2-1 win over Atalanta in the reverse encounter. However, last season, Atalanta claimed all three points in convincing fashion, winning 3-0 at home.
Betting
Atalanta 4/9
Draw 15/4
Torino 13/2
Verdict
Goals and Atalanta go hand in hand, and this weekend should be no exception. Given Atalanta’s attacking firepower and Torino’s recent return to form, I expect an open contest. Rather than picking an outright winner, backing both teams to score could prove profitable, especially considering this market has landed in each of Atalanta’s last five league encounters at the Gewiss Stadium.
Suggested Bet: Both Teams to Score, Yes at 12/10
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SUNDAY
AC MILAN v INTER MILAN – Click here to bet
The Milan derby is always one of Serie A’s most anticipated fixtures, and this Sunday’s clash at the San Siro promises to be no different. AC Milan returned to winning ways on the domestic front last weekend with a dramatic 3-2 victory over Parma, sealing the win with two late stoppage-time goals. Currently sitting 7th in the league with 34 points from 21 matches, Sérgio Conceição’s side will be eager to build on that momentum as they push for a European spot. Milan enter Sunday’s crucial league encounter off the back of a disappointing 2-1 defeat away to Dinamo Zagreb, which saw them finish 13th in the Champions League, league phase. Despite Wednesday’s result, all attention now turns to the weekend, where they will aim to extend their winning run against their city rivals, having already beaten Inter twice this season, including a league victory and a triumph in the Super Cup.
At home, AC Milan have scored 18 goals, averaging 1.64 per game, while conceding 8 at a rate of 0.72 per match. Interestingly, Under 2.5 goals have occurred in 55% of their home games (6 out of 11).
Inter Milan, however, have been in outstanding form. Sitting 2nd in Serie A with 50 points, they trail leaders Atalanta by just three points. Last weekend’s impressive 4-0 victory away to Lecce extended their unbeaten run in the league to 16 games, with only one loss this season—an unexpected defeat to AC Milan earlier in the campaign. Inter enter this Milan derby fresh off a comprehensive 3-0 win over Monaco midweek in the Champions League, securing their place in the round of 16 after finishing 4th in the league phase. Under Simone Inzaghi, Inter has been dominant, and despite the fierce nature of the Milan derby, they will be confident heading into this clash. However, they will also be mindful that AC Milan have had the upper hand in recent encounters, having won back-to-back matches, both in the league and in the Super Cup this season.
Away from home, Inter Milan have scored 29 goals, averaging 2.9 per game, while conceding just 5 at a rate of 0.5 per match. Over 2.5 goals have featured in 70% of their away games (7 out of 10).
Head-to-Head
AC Milan have won back-to-back meetings with Inter this season, claiming victory in the Super Cup and securing a 2-1 win in the league. Last season, however, this fixture resulted in a 2-1 win for Inter Milan.
Betting
AC Milan 16/5
Draw 27/10
Inter Milan 9/10
Verdict
In a fixture that rarely disappoints, this particular encounter could go either way on any given day, highlighting the beauty of such a competitive derby. That said, we’ve seen a fair share of goals in this meeting recently, and while I’m not bold enough to pick an outright winner, I do believe that both teams finding the net at 8/11 could be the right way to go.
Suggested Bet: Both teams to Score, Yes at 15/20
AS ROMA v NAPOLI – Click here to bet
AS Roma will face a tough challenge on Sunday when they host Serie A leaders Napoli at the Stadio Olimpico. Under Claudio Ranieri, the Giallorossi have shown vast improvement on the domestic front, enjoying an unbeaten run of six matches, including four wins and two draws in the league. Last weekend, Roma secured their 8th league win of the season with a 2-1 victory away to Udinese, further highlighting their steady progress. Sitting mid-table in 9th place with 30 points, they will be eager to maintain their upward trajectory and move closer to the top as they continue their resurgence under Ranieri.
At home, Roma have scored 23 goals, averaging 2.09 per game, while conceding 11 at a rate of 1 per match. Three or more goals have been scored in 64% of their home encounters (7 out of 11).
Napoli, meanwhile, continue to dominate the Serie A standings. With 53 points from 22 matches, they lead the table by a slender margin and are coming off a dramatic 2-1 comeback win over Juventus last weekend—an impressive result, especially as Juventus had not been defeated until that point in the season. Antonio Conte’s side has been solid on both ends of the pitch and will be confident heading into this clash. However, with Roma’s recent transformation under Ranieri, this could be a tricky encounter. Napoli will need to maintain their focus and consistency to overcome Roma’s newfound momentum and strengthen their grip on the title race.
Away from home, Napoli have scored 20 goals at an average of 1.81 per game, while conceding 8 at a rate of 0.72 per match. Over 2.5 goals have occurred in 55% of their away matches (6 out of 11).
Head-to-Head
Earlier this campaign, Napoli edged past Roma with a narrow 1-0 victory in the reverse fixture. However, Roma claimed all three points in this matchup last season, securing a convincing 2-0 win.
Betting
AS Roma 85/40
Draw 9/4
Napoli 14/10
Verdict
I quite like the prospect of either side claiming all three points, given that a draw has been absent in their last five encounters. In Rome, the last five meetings between these two have all seen two goals or fewer, suggesting another tightly contested affair could be on the cards.
Suggested Bet: Double Chance and Total, AS Roma/Napoli and Under 3.5 at 15/20
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Note: All prices correct at the time of writing but are subject to change
