This Sunday offers a trio of crucial showdowns that not only influence the standings but also present compelling betting opportunities based on current form, motivation, and head-to-head records. Here’s a closer look at three standout La Liga fixtures and where the value might lie this weekend.
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LAS PALMAS v LEGANES – Click here to bet
While it may not boast the glamour of a top-table clash, few matches this weekend carry more weight than this relegation six-pointer between Las Palmas and Leganés. With just two games left to play in the season, survival hopes hang by a thread for both clubs, and anything less than victory could seal their fate in Spain’s top flight.
Las Palmas head into Sunday’s do-or-die encounter knowing that defeat would all but confirm their relegation. The hosts currently sit 19th in the table with 32 points, two points adrift of Leganés and six behind safety. With a significantly worse goal difference than 17th-placed Alavés, even a win might not be enough in the long run—but for Diego Martínez and his players, three points are the only option if they hope to take the battle to the final weekend.
Confidence, however, is in short supply on the island. A 1-0 loss away to Sevilla in midweek marked Las Palmas’ fourth straight defeat in La Liga. They’ve managed to find the net just twice across those four games, underlining the attacking woes that have plagued them all season.
At home, the Estadio de Gran Canaria has offered little sanctuary. Los Amarillos have won just four of their 18 home fixtures all campaign (W4, D5, L9), collecting only 17 points. They’ve scored 21 goals and conceded 28 in front of their fans, with their most recent two home outings both ending in defeat. The timing of their slump could not be worse.
Leganés arrive in Gran Canaria 18th in the standings with 34 points, two clear of Las Palmas and only four off 17th-placed Alavés. The equation is straightforward for Borja Jiménez’s side: win, and they take a giant step towards safety; lose, and they could find themselves back in the drop zone by the end of the weekend.
That said, current form paints a worrying picture. Leganés suffered a bruising 3-0 loss away to Villarreal on Wednesday, a result that typifies a run of just one win from their last 10 league outings (W1, D4, L5). Like their hosts, they are struggling at the wrong time—and their away form is even more concerning.
Los Pepineros have been one of the league’s worst travellers this season, picking up just one away win from 18 games (W1, D9, L8). Their last victory on the road came way back in December. Since then, they’ve gone nine away matches without a win (D4, L5), and no side has scored fewer goals away from home than Leganés, who’ve managed just 15 all season while conceding 29.
Head-to-Head
These two relegation-threatened sides have already met once this season, with Leganés winning 2-1 in the reverse fixture. However, they’ll be wary of their recent trips to Gran Canaria—Las Palmas have won the last three home encounters against Leganés, including a 4-2 victory in 2022. Despite their overall struggles, the hosts will take heart from that head-to-head dominance at home.
Betting
Las Palmas 19/10
Draw 5/2
Leganés 14/10
Verdict
While both teams are in dreadful form, Leganés’ inability to win on the road and their poor scoring record away from home give Las Palmas a glimmer of hope in front of their fans. The hosts have historically had the upper hand in this fixture on home soil, and with both sides desperate, this could be a tight and nervy affair.
Suggested Bet: Double Chance and Total – Las Palmas/Draw and Under 4.5 at 8/11
ATLETICO MADRID v REAL BETIS – Click here to bet
While both clubs have already secured European football for next season, Sunday’s clash between Atlético Madrid and Real Betis at the Metropolitano carries added intrigue given the new Champions League allocation for La Liga. With five Spanish clubs now qualifying for Europe’s elite competition, Betis still harbour slim hopes of sneaking in — but nothing less than three points will do.
Atlético come into this encounter off the back of a disappointing 2-0 defeat away to Osasuna on Thursday night. That result officially ended any faint hopes of overtaking Real Madrid for second place, with Diego Simeone’s men now guaranteed to finish no higher than third. Still, Los Rojiblancos remain formidable at home.
Their record at the Metropolitano is the envy of most clubs in Spain — 13 wins from 18 matches, with just a single defeat all season. Recent form on home soil is equally impressive, with Atlético claiming 12 points from a possible 15 and winning each of their last three home fixtures. They’ve scored 11 times in those three matches, conceding just twice — a reminder that even with Champions League qualification secured, they remain a serious force in front of their fans.
Real Betis make the trip to Madrid following a spirited 2-2 draw away to Rayo Vallecano — a result that extends their unbeaten run on the road to five matches. Manuel Pellegrini’s side showed character to come from two goals down, but the dropped points could prove costly in their bid for a top-five finish. The Verdiblancos sit 6th in the table with 59 points, four adrift of Villarreal, and know that anything less than victory on Sunday could end their Champions League dreams.
That said, their away form has been solid in recent weeks. Betis have taken 14 points from their last six away matches (W4, D2), scoring 13 goals and conceding eight in the process. They’ve shown plenty of attacking intent, and with little to lose, they’ll likely come to play.
Head-to-Head
Earlier this season, Betis secured a narrow 1-0 win in Seville. However, history is not on their side when travelling to the capital — they’ve lost six consecutive away matches against Atlético Madrid, including a 2-1 defeat in this fixture last season. The Metropolitano has been an unforgiving venue for the visitors.
Betting
Atletico Madrid 19/20
Draw 11/4
Real Betis 28/10
Verdict
With Atlético rock-solid at home and Betis fighting for Champions League survival, this promises to be a competitive affair. The visitors have found their scoring touch on the road, while the hosts rarely fail to entertain in front of their fans. Given Betis’ attacking momentum and Atlético’s recent high-scoring home performances, goals could be on the cards at both ends.
Suggested Bet: Both Teams to Score – Yes at 7/10
BARCELONA v VILLAREAL – Click here to bet
The title has been clinched, the pressure is off, and the stage is set for a celebratory evening at the Estadi Olímpic Lluís Companys as newly-crowned La Liga champions Barcelona welcome a determined Villarreal side on Sunday. After their 2-0 win over Espanyol on Thursday night, Hansi Flick’s men officially sealed their 28th league crown and will now look to thank their supporters in style on home soil.
With a domestic treble already in the bag and two fixtures remaining, it remains to be seen how seriously the Blaugrana will treat this contest. Flick could rotate his squad or simply let his side play with freedom, knowing there’s nothing tangible left to fight for. That said, Barcelona head into this clash in blistering form — winning nine of their last ten league matches, scoring freely and looking confident in all areas of the pitch.
At home, Barcelona’s numbers are solid if not flawless. They’ve picked up 14 wins from 18 league matches at the Lluís Companys, with just one draw and three defeats. Their recent home form is also strong — four wins and a draw in their last five — with 14 goals scored and 8 conceded in that period. While not watertight defensively, their attacking prowess remains undeniable.
Villarreal, on the other hand, are still on a mission. Marcelino’s side enter the weekend in a fierce battle for the final Champions League berth and know that a point from their final two matches will likely be enough to secure a top-five finish. Confidence will be high in the Yellow Submarine camp after Wednesday’s convincing 3-0 win over Leganés — their fourth straight league victory.
On the road, Villarreal have been one of the most impressive sides in the division this season. With 10 wins from 18 away matches (W10, D3, L5), they boast La Liga’s second-best away record, behind only Real Madrid. They’re unbeaten in six of their last eight away games and have the form, motivation, and recent pedigree to believe they can get a result on Sunday.
Head-to-Head
Barcelona ran riot in the reverse fixture earlier this season with a thumping 5-1 win at the Estadio de la Cerámica. However, last season’s encounter in Catalonia told a different story, as Villarreal stunned the hosts with a 5-3 away victory — their second win in their last three visits to Barcelona.
Betting
Barcelona 10/11
Draw 16/5
Villarreal 26/10
Verdict
While Barcelona may still be buzzing from their title celebrations, Villarreal arrive in peak form with everything still to play for. Flick could opt to rotate or ease off intensity levels, giving the Yellow Submarine the perfect window to strike. With recent away success at this venue and a Champions League place on the line, a draw wouldn’t be the worst outcome for either side, especially given the circumstances. Backing Villarreal to avoid defeat could prove to be a profitable angle this weekend.
Suggested Bet: Double Chance – Draw/Villareal at 17/20
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Note: All prices correct at the time of writing but are subject to change
