It’s another compelling weekend in La Liga, and we take a look at three fixtures in search of value plays.
Villarreal return to La Cerámica on Saturday looking to extend their blistering run as they welcome a resilient Getafe side. Later, Real Betis host Barcelona, with Pellegrini’s men aiming to test the league leaders away inconsistency. The round concludes on Sunday at the Mestalla, where Valencia take on Sevilla in a clash that could be finely balanced but decisive for both teams. Here are my thoughts, along with a suggested bet for each to consider.
Before we get into each match, here’s a quick look at the outright title picture.
Barcelona and Real Madrid now sit as joint favourites at 1/1, reflecting how tight the race has become. Atletico Madrid follow at 18/1, with Villarreal priced at 25/1. The rest of the field can be found at 100/1 or greater.
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SATURDAY
VILLARREAL v GETAFE – Click here to bet
Villarreal return to La Cerámica this weekend brimming with confidence after a thrilling 3–2 win away at Real Sociedad. Marcelino’s men are in outstanding form, winning five league games on the bounce to sit third in the table with 32 points from 14 matches (W10 D2 L2). The Yellow Submarine boast one of the division’s most potent attacks with 29 goals scored, while their defensive record is equally impressive, just 13 conceded all season.
At home, they have been close to flawless, six wins and a draw, 18 goals scored, and only four conceded. That blend of attacking thrust and defensive structure makes them extremely hard to break down, and Marcelino will expect more of the same against a stubborn Getafe side.
Getafe make the trip following a morale-boosting 1–0 win over Elche that halted a brief losing run. José Bordalás’ Azulones sit seventh with 20 points from 14 games (W6 D2 L6), but their away form remains a worry. They have lost four of their last five league trips, including heavy defeats at Valencia and Barcelona, and will need to be compact and disciplined to take anything from La Cerámica.
The contrast is straightforward: Villarreal look almost untouchable at home, while Getafe continue to labour on the road. Their return of nine points from seven away outings underlines the challenge ahead, and having conceded nine goals in their last four away fixtures, their back line will need to be flawless to contain Villarreal’s pace and movement.
Head-to-Head
Villarreal have dominated this fixture, unbeaten in the last 13 meetings (W8 D5). Last season saw them take four points, a 2–1 win away and a 1–1 draw at La Cerámica.
Betting
Villarreal 63/100
Draw 57/20
Getafe 19/4
Verdict
This one leans heavily towards the hosts. Villarreal are confident, well-drilled, and ruthless at home, whereas Getafe haven’t shown the same authority on their travels. Bordalás’ side can frustrate teams, but given Villarreal’s attacking firepower and dominance in this matchup, backing the home win feels the safer play.
Suggested Bet: Villarreal to win at 63/100
REAL BETIS v BARCELONA – Click here to bet
Real Betis return home on the back of a statement 2–0 derby win over Sevilla, a result that extended their unbeaten league run to four matches. Manuel Pellegrini’s side remain firmly in the European conversation, sitting fifth with 24 points from 14 games (W6 D6 L2). Performances have sharpened in recent weeks, and with two wins and two draws in their last four, Betis enter this contest looking balanced and confident.
At La Cartuja, Betis have been competitive with 13 points from seven matches (W4 D1 L2), 11 scored and just six conceded. Their four-match unbeaten stretch at home has been built on compact defensive discipline, though earlier losses to Athletic Bilbao and Atletico Madrid offer a reminder of where they fall short against elite opposition.
Barcelona arrive buoyed by Monday night’s 3–1 victory over Atletico Madrid, stretching their domestic winning streak to five and cementing their place atop the table. Hansi Flick’s men have 37 points from 15 matches, with 12 league wins, and despite last month’s Champions League setback at Chelsea, their domestic form remains sharp. The question now is whether that efficiency travels, because away from home, the picture has been less convincing.
Four wins, one draw, and two defeats have yielded 13 points from seven away fixtures, while just one away clean sheet tells its own story. Their 4–2 win at Celta Vigo did restore some belief, but the broader trend suggests Barcelona can be vulnerable on the road, an element that adds intrigue here.
Head-to-Head
Both league meetings last season finished level, though Barcelona cruised to a 5–1 victory in their Copa del Rey tie. Betis have competed in recent matchups but Barça still tend to carry the greater attacking punch.
Betting
Real Betis 57/20
Draw 13/4
Barcelona 4/5
Verdict
Barcelona remain favourites on paper, but their away inconsistency opens the door for Betis. Pellegrini’s side rarely sit deep at home and have the craft to trouble the leaders. With last season’s league clashes ending in draws and both teams regularly scoring, goals look a safer angle than backing an outright winner.
Suggested Bet: Both Teams to Score & Over 2.5 Goals at 69/100
SUNDAY
VALENCIA v SEVILLA – Click here to bet
We close the weekend at Mestalla, where Valencia will hope to build on newly found stability after a mixed campaign. Carlos Corberán’s Los Che sit 15th with 14 points from 14 matches (W3 D5 L6), but recent signs are encouraging. A 1–1 draw at Rayo Vallecano extended their unbeaten run to three games, with five points collected in that spell (W1 D2). Mestalla has been their backbone with three wins, two draws and only two defeats, and could again offer the lift they need.
Defensively, Valencia have tightened up, conceding just once in their last two league outings. Going forward, they have scored nine at home, enough to keep games competitive. Confidence is slowly returning, and with a positive recent record against Sevilla, the hosts will fancy extending that momentum.
Sevilla arrive facing questions of their own. Matías Almeyda’s men are 13th with 16 points (W5 D1 L8) and come into this fixture after successive defeats, 2–1 at Espanyol and 2–0 in the derby against Betis. Away form is equally concerning, with three straight league losses on the road and five goals conceded in their last two away matches. Mestalla represents another stern challenge.
With just two points separating these sides, this feels like one of the weekend’s more balanced encounters. Sevilla will need to rediscover defensive stability and find attacking spark if they hope to take anything.
Head-to-Head
Valencia have held the edge lately, unbeaten in the last four meetings (W2 D2). Last season, they drew 1–1 away and won 1–0 at Mestalla.
Betting
Valencia 6/5
Draw 21/10
Sevilla 12/5
Verdict
These sides are well-matched, and meetings between them tend to be tight and low-scoring. Valencia hold home advantage and the psychological edge, but Sevilla have enough quality to cause problems. The safer angle looks backing the hosts not to lose while keeping the total goals in check.
Suggested Bet: Valencia Double Chance (Win or Draw) & Under 3.5 Goals at 73/100
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Note: All prices correct at the time of writing but are subject to change
