As we head into week 14 of La Liga this weekend, we take a look at three matches from a betting angle.
Barcelona aim to keep pace in the title race as they welcome Alaves to Camp Nou on Saturday, before Atletico Madrid look to continue their charge up the table when they host newly promoted Oviedo in the capital. The round concludes on Sunday with Real Madrid travelling to Girona, where the leaders will be eager to snap a run of draws and stay ahead of the chasing pack. Here are my thoughts, along with a suggested bet for each to consider.
Before we get into each match, here’s a quick look at the outright title picture. Real Madrid remain firm favourites at 71/100 despite their recent dip in form, with Barcelona tightening the gap at 6/5. Atletico Madrid sit further back at 20/1, while Villarreal are available at 40/1. The rest of the field are priced at 200/1 or bigger.
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SATURDAY
BARCELONA v ALAVES – Click here to bet
Barcelona return to Camp Nou for the second consecutive weekend, aiming to secure a fourth straight league victory. Sitting just one point behind Real Madrid after a dominant 4–0 win over Athletic Bilbao, Hansi Flick’s side remain firmly in the title race with 31 points from 13 games, recording ten wins, one draw and two defeats. They do, however, arrive with a point to prove after a heavy 3–0 loss away to Chelsea in the Champions League on Tuesday.
At home, Barça are a perfect six from six in La Liga, scoring 20 goals and conceding just three. Their recent form at Camp Nou has been especially impressive as they’ve averaged three goals per game across their last three league outings, netting nine and conceding only twice.
Alaves arrive on Saturday desperate to halt their slide. Last weekend’s 1–0 defeat at home to Celta Vigo made it consecutive losses and extended a worrying trend in front of goal, they’ve now failed to score in four of their last five league matches. With just 15 points from 13 games (W4 D3 L6), Eduardo Coudet’s side sit 14th and lacking momentum.
Their away record offers little encouragement. Alaves have lost three straight on the road without scoring and have taken just four points from a possible 18 overall (W1 D1 L4), finding the net only twice while conceding five.
Head-to-Head
Barcelona completed a league double over Alaves last season, winning 3–0 away and 1–0 at home. The Catalans have won the last five meetings, scoring ten and conceding just three.
Betting
Barcelona 23/100
Draw 23/4
Alaves 10/1
Verdict
Barcelona’s midweek setback should give this performance a bit of edge as they’ll want a quick response, and Camp Nou should offer them that platform. With Alaves struggling to offer much of a threat away from home, it still feels like a comfortable assignment for the hosts.
Suggested Bet: Barcelona to win to nil at 23/20
ATLETICO MADRID v OVIEDO – Click here to bet
Atletico Madrid picked up where they left off before the break, grinding out a 1–0 win at Getafe to make it five league victories in a row. Diego Simeone’s side sit 4th in the table with 28 points from 13 games, having recorded eight wins, four draws, and one defeat
Back at the Metropolitano, Atletico will look to extend both their overall winning streak to six and their home run to seven straight league wins. They’ve dropped points just once at home all season, with a record of six wins and one draw, scoring 18 and conceding only six.
Newly promoted Oviedo have found life in La Liga far more challenging. A goalless draw against Rayo Vallecano last week offered some relief, but Luis Carrión’s side remain rooted at the bottom of the table with just nine points from 13 matches (W2 D3 L8)
Their away form doesn’t inspire confidence either. A 1–0 defeat at Athletic Bilbao last time out marked their fourth away loss from six matches, during which they’ve scored five and conceded 10.
Head-to-Head
Their last meeting came in 2023, when Atletico earned a 2–0 away win in the Copa del Rey.
Betting
Atletico Madrid 23/100
Draw 21/4
Oviedo 11/1
Verdict
Similar to the earlier preview, it’s difficult to build a case for the visitors. Atletico have looked assured and disciplined over the last month, and the sides in Oviedo’s position typically struggle to cope at the Metropolitano. With little value in the outright, backing the home win without conceding makes sense here.
Suggested Bet: Atletico Madrid to win to nil at 73/100
SUNDAY
GIRONA v REAL MADRID – Click here to bet
We wrap up the weekend with a late Sunday kick off as Girona host Real Madrid, hoping to drag the league leaders into another patchy showing. Like their opponents, Michel’s side enter this fixture off a draw, a 1–1 result away at Betis that extended their unbeaten run to two matches. Girona remain in the relegation zone, sitting 18th on 11 points with just two wins from 13 games (W2 D5 L6).
Their home form has at least shown more bite. Girona have taken eight points from seven matches at Montilivi, though a tally of just seven goals scored, compared to 13 conceded, highlights their main issue.
Real Madrid are on the road for a third straight league match and will be eager to avoid a third successive draw. After leading the table for much of the season, recent slips have allowed Barcelona, Villarreal, and Atletico Madrid to close the gap. A 2–2 draw at Elche last weekend means Los Blancos now hold just a one-point lead at the top, with 32 points from 13 matches, ten wins, two draws, and one defeat
Away from home, they remain the league’s best travellers with 14 points from seven matches (W4 D2 L1), scoring 14 and conceding nine. But back-to-back away draws have raised questions that they’ll be desperate to answer here.
Head-to-Head
Real Madrid have won the last four meetings, completing back-to-back league doubles. Last season they won this fixture 3–0, before a 2–0 victory at the Bernabéu.
Betting
Girona 11/2
Draw 17/4
Real Madrid 2/5
Verdict
Despite their recent wobble, this shapes up as a strong opportunity for Real Madrid to get back on track. They’ve also had the measure of Girona in this fixture, winning the last four meetings by two goals or more. With the title challengers closing in, this feels like a must-win scenario for Alonso’s men, and a sharper, more decisive display should see them remain top, at least for now.
Suggested Bet: Real Madrid -1 Handicap at 1/1
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Note: All prices correct at the time of writing but are subject to change
