We turn our attention to Spain this weekend for the final La Liga round of 2025, with three key fixtures across Saturday and Sunday.
Real Madrid kick things off at the Bernabéu as they aim to bounce back against an inconsistent Sevilla side, while Girona host Atletico Madrid in a clash with stakes at both ends of the table.
The weekend wraps up at La Cerámica, where Villarreal welcome league leaders Barcelona in a heavyweight showdown. Here are my thoughts and the best angles to consider in each match.
Before we get into the fixtures, here’s a look at the outright title picture. Barcelona remain top of the market at 27/50, with Real Madrid next best at 6/4. Villarreal and Atletico Madrid follow at 40/1 apiece, while the rest of the chasing pack sit at 100/1 or longer.
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SATURDAY
REAL MADRID v SEVILLA – Click here to bet
We head to the Bernabéu on Saturday evening where Real Madrid continue their pursuit of Barcelona at the top of La Liga as they welcome an inconsistent Sevilla side to the capital. Xabi Alonso’s men sit second in the standings with 39 points from 17 matches, having won 12, drawn three and lost just twice. They returned to winning ways last weekend with a 2–1 victory away to Alavés, a result that helped steady momentum following a brief run of dropped points.
Real Madrid’s home form has been central to their title challenge, winning six of seven league matches at the Bernabéu (D0 L1), scoring 14 goals and conceding just five. Their ability to control games and apply sustained pressure makes them one of La Liga’s most reliable hosts. While they recently dropped two home matches, a 2–0 loss to Celta Vigo in the league and a 2–1 defeat to Manchester City in Europe, these results appear more like blips than a trend, with Madrid’s overall dominance at home remaining a key strength.
Sevilla arrive in Madrid positioned ninth with 20 points from 16 matches, following a season defined by inconsistency. They come into the weekend buoyed by a convincing 4–0 home win over Real Oviedo, a result that eased pressure but did little to disguise ongoing issues away from home.
Sevilla have struggled for consistency on the road, winning just three of eight away league fixtures (D1 L4), scoring 10 goals and conceding 12. Despite their poor record away, it must be noted that their only goalless performance came in Madrid, a 3–0 loss to Atletico. Against top-six opposition in particular, they often find themselves pinned back for long stretches, a scenario that rarely plays out in their favour at the Bernabéu.
Head-to-Head
Real Madrid have dominated this fixture in recent seasons, winning seven of the last eight league meetings, including a league double last term, a 4-2 victory in this fixture followed by a clinical 2-0 win in the reverse encounter. The hosts have also claimed victory in their last four consecutive league matches at the Bernabéu against Sevilla, who have not won a league game at Madrid’s ground since 2008.
Betting
Real Madrid 1/4
Draw 11/2
Sevilla 9/1
Verdict
Real Madrid should respond this weekend as they look to return to winning ways on their own patch. With a strong home record and a favourable history against Sevilla, the hosts are well-placed to assert themselves early and see the game out comfortably, likely securing a win with a cushion to spare.
Suggested Bet: Asian Handicap: Real Madrid -1.5 at 13/20
SUNDAY
GIRONA v ATLETICO MADRID – Click here to bet
Sunday’s action takes us to Catalonia, where Girona host Atletico Madrid in a fixture carrying significance at both ends of the table. Girona remain entrenched in the relegation zone, sitting 18th with 15 points from 16 matches after winning three, drawing six and losing seven. Their most recent outing did bring some encouragement, however, as they claimed a 2–1 away win over Real Sociedad, a rare bright spot in an otherwise difficult campaign.
Home form has remained a focus for Girona this season. After opening the campaign with three consecutive league defeats at Montilivi, they have since gone unbeaten in their last five home league matches (W2 D3). Overall, Girona have recorded two wins, three draws, and three losses at home, scoring eight goals and conceding 14 this term.
Atletico Madrid sit fourth with 34 points from 17 matches, having won ten, drawn four, and lost three. They come into this fixture off the back of a 2–1 home win over Valencia, a result that helped restore much-needed momentum on the domestic front after a mixed spell that saw Diego Simeone’s men suffer back-to-back league defeats.
Away from the Metropolitano, however, Atletico have been far less convincing. They have recorded only two wins from eight league trips (D3 L3), scoring eight goals and conceding nine on the road. While margins are often tight, Simeone’s side do have a strong track record of grinding out results against teams in the bottom half.
Head-to-Head
Atletico Madrid have won the last three league meetings between these sides, including a league double last term. Simeone’s men recorded comprehensive wins on both occasions, with a 3–0 victory in the reverse fixture at the Metropolitano, followed by a 4–0 win in this matchup.
Betting
Girona 15/4
Draw 3/1
Atletico Madrid 71/100
Verdict
Girona’s desperation for points is evident after their slow start to the campaign, but persistent defensive issues make them hard to trust against one of the league’s most structured sides. Atletico may not have looked convincing on the road this season, but I expect them to grind out a win here.
Suggested Bet: Atletico Madrid to win at 71/100
VILLARREAL v BARCELONA – Click here to bet
We close the weekend with a heavyweight clash at La Cerámica as Villarreal host league leaders Barcelona in one of the standout fixtures of the round. Villarreal sit third with 35 points from 15 matches, having won 11, drawn two and lost just twice. They suffered a slight setback last weekend with a postponed fixture due to adverse weather, meaning they come into this clash well-rested.
Home form has been the foundation of Villarreal’s impressive campaign. They remain unbeaten at La Cerámica, winning seven of eight home league matches (D1 L0) while scoring 20 goals and conceding just four. Their aggressive pressing and attacking intent have made them one of the most dangerous home sides in the division.
Barcelona, meanwhile, continue to lead the way at the summit. Hansi Flick’s side sit top with 43 points from 17 matches, having won 14, drawn one, and lost twice. They extended their league-winning run to seven matches with a 2–0 home victory over Osasuna this past weekend, maintaining their remarkable scoring consistency, having netted three goals or more in six of those fixtures.
Crucially, Barcelona have travelled exceptionally well this season. On the road, they have won five of eight league matches (D1 L2), scoring 21 goals and conceding 15. Their last five consecutive league away matches have provided plenty of entertainment, with both sides finding the net and three or more goals scored in each fixture. Their last two league appearances on the road have produced an incredible 14 goals overall, suggesting another high-scoring affair could be on the cards this weekend.
Head-to-Head
We have witnessed mixed results between these two sides of late, with teams often finding success on the road. In their last four meetings, both Barcelona and Sevilla have won their respective matches away from home. Last season saw Barcelona claim a 5–1 win in this fixture, followed by Sevilla’s 3–2 victory in the reverse encounter. Meetings between these two are rarely shy on goals, with no fewer than 26 goals scored across their last four league clashes.
Betting
Villarreal 9/4
Draw 7/2
Barcelona 93/100
Verdict
Despite recent meetings favouring the travelling side between these two, Villarreal should not be discounted. They have enjoyed a superb season so far and are unlikely to back down against a Barcelona side that often concedes on the road. While I’m not confident enough to back an outright result, I do expect plenty of goals. For that reason, both teams to score, with at least four goals likely, looks an appealing option.
Suggested Bet: Bet Builder – Both Teams to score & Over 3.5 goals at 5/6
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Note: All prices correct at the time of writing but are subject to change
