We turn our attention to Spain this weekend with three fixtures spread across Saturday and Sunday. Atletico Madrid kick things off at the Metropolitano as Diego Simeone’s side return home looking to steady themselves after consecutive league defeats, with Valencia arriving still winless on their travels. Later, Barcelona continue their title charge at Camp Nou against an Osasuna team battling to escape the lower reaches of the table. The round wraps up in Vigo on Sunday, where Celta look to build on their shock win over Real Madrid as they welcome an Athletic Bilbao side whose strong recent form makes this one feel finely balanced. Here are my thoughts and the best angles to consider in each match.
Before we get into each match, here’s a quick look at the outright title picture.
Barcelona have tightened their grip on the market and are now firm favourites at 57/100, with Real Madrid next best at 6/4. Villarreal and Atletico Madrid follow at 33/1 apiece, while the rest of the chasing pack sit at 200/1 or longer.
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SATURDAY
ATLETICO MADRID v VALENCIA – Click here to bet
We make our way to the Metropolitano on Saturday afternoon for our first La Liga fixture of the weekend, where Atletico Madrid will be desperate to arrest a poor run that has seen them slip to back-to-back league defeats. Those results, a 1–0 loss away to Athletic Bilbao last weekend, followed by a 3–1 reverse at Barcelona, leave Diego Simeone’s side fourth in the standings with 31 points from 16 matches. While things may have stalled on the domestic front, they do at least enter Saturday’s clash on a winning note after securing a 3–2 victory away to PSV in the Champions League this past Tuesday.
After two straight league games on the road without reward, Simeone will be relieved to return home. Atletico remain unbeaten in Madrid this season and are riding a ten-match winning streak in all competitions at the Metropolitano. Encouragingly, they have also found their scoring touch there, netting 13 goals across their last five home appearances.
Valencia arrive unbeaten in their last four league outings and sit 16th with 15 points from 15 matches. Last weekend’s 1–1 draw at home to Sevilla made it six points collected over that span, though three of those games ended level, with just one win along the way.
Away from home, however, the picture looks far less promising. Valencia are still searching for their first road victory of the season, having taken only three points from a possible 21 away from Mestalla (D3 L4). Goals have been a major issue, just four scored away compared to 16 conceded. Their most recent outing on the road yielded a 1–1 draw at Rayo Vallecano, but memories of a heavy 4–0 defeat against Real Madrid in their last trip to the capital will linger.
Head-to-Head
Atletico have dominated recent meetings between these sides, winning six of the last seven encounters and each of the last three. Last season, they completed a league double over Valencia, winning 3–0 both home and away.
Betting
Atletico Madrid 31/100
Draw 9/2
Valencia 17/2
Verdict
A response feels likely from Atletico, and with their formidable home record and dominance in this fixture, they should win, and win well. Valencia’s struggles on their travels, particularly the volume of goals they tend to concede in big stadiums, don’t offer much optimism. It’s hard to look past a comfortable home victory here, with Atletico fancied to pull clear by a couple of goals.
Suggested Bet: Atletico Madrid -1.5 at 87/100
BARCELONA v OSASUNA – Click here to bet
Barcelona return to Camp Nou on Saturday evening as they welcome struggling Osasuna. The Catalan giants sit top of La Liga with 40 points from 16 matches, having won 13, drawn one and lost only twice. Hansi Flick’s side have been by far the most dangerous attacking unit in the league, scoring a remarkable 47 goals to date, and they come into the weekend on a six-match winning streak in La Liga, a run in which they have netted an astonishing 22 goals. They also featured in Europe this past week, recording a 2–1 home victory over Eintracht Frankfurt to keep their continental momentum intact heading into Saturday’s clash.
At home, Barcelona have been flawless. They have won all eight of their league fixtures at Camp Nou this season, conceding just five goals and scoring 26 in return. Despite the disruptions that came with playing at alternative venues earlier in the campaign, their return to Camp Nou has been emphatic. Their most recent home outing, a commanding 3–1 victory over Atletico Madrid, served as a clear statement to the rest of the league.
Osasuna travel to Barcelona sitting 15th in the standings with 15 points from 15 matches, only three points above the relegation zone. It has been a difficult campaign for Alessio Lisci’s side, who have struggled to find any real rhythm despite entering this round unbeaten in their last two league games, including a clinical 2–0 home win over Levante on Monday. With just 14 goals scored all season, the Los Rojillos will need to find another gear entirely if they hope to pull away from the bottom end of the table.
Their away form offers little encouragement. Osasuna have collected just two points on the road, the worst away record in La Liga, and remain without a single away win. Goals have been a major issue, with only three scored and 10 conceded across their travels. A recent 2–2 draw at Mallorca halted their run of away defeats, but Saturday’s challenge represents a significant step up in difficulty given Barcelona’s outstanding home form.
Head-to-Head
Barcelona have unsurprisingly dominated this fixture, winning seven of the last eight meetings in all competitions. Last season did see a rare setback, with Osasuna claiming a 4–2 victory at home, but Barcelona responded with a commanding 3–0 win in this fixture. The Catalans have also won their last five league matches at home against Osasuna without conceding a single goal.
Betting
Barcelona 23/100
Draw 25/4
Osasuna 9/1
Verdict
This has all the makings of a long night for the visitors. Osasuna’s miserable away record and ongoing struggles in front of goal suggest they are unlikely to trouble Barcelona’s backline, while Flick’s side continue to look ruthless in their own stadium. Given the hosts’ dominance in this matchup, and the fact they have won this fixture to nil in each of the last five meetings at Camp Nou, backing Barcelona to win without conceding stands out as the clear play.
Suggested Bet: Barcelona to win to Nil at 13/10
SUNDAY
CELTA VIGO v ATHLETICO BILBAO – Click here to bet
We end the weekend in Vigo, where Celta Vigo host Athletic Bilbao in a fixture that carries plenty of intrigue for both sides. Sitting mid-table in 10th with 19 points from 15 matches, Claudio Giráldez’s team arrive on the back of a superb 2–0 win away at Real Madrid, a result that snapped their winless run in emphatic fashion. The challenge now is to prove that performance was no one-off. However, given their struggles at Balaídos this season, Sunday presents a stern test against an Athletic side who have impressed for large parts of the campaign.
At home, the Sky Blues have simply not been able to match their more encouraging away form. They remain without a league win at Balaídos this season, drawing five and losing three from eight outings. Back-to-back home defeats to Barcelona and Espanyol underline their inconsistency, while a return of seven goals scored and 12 conceded reflects their vulnerability in front of their own supporters.
Athletic Bilbao arrive in Vigo in seventh place with 23 points after last weekend’s excellent 1–0 victory over Atletico Madrid. Ernesto Valverde’s men have now won seven, drawn two and lost seven overall, and head into the weekend buoyed by a run of just one defeat in their last four league matches.
Away from home, however, the Lions have found life more difficult. With only two league wins on their travels, and four defeats from seven, they have collected just seven points from a possible 21 on the road, scoring six and conceding 11 in the process.
Head-to-Head
Athletic Bilbao have enjoyed the better of recent meetings, winning four of their last five against Celta Vigo, including a league double last season, a 3–1 victory at San Mamés and a 2–1 win in this fixture at Balaídos.
Betting
Celta Vigo 8/5
Draw 9/4
Athletic Bilbao 9/5
Verdict
A tricky game to call, particularly with both sides buoyed by strong results last weekend. Celta Vigo’s home record remains a major concern, while Athletic’s away form has been far from convincing, making the outright market difficult to trust. Both teams have struggled for goals in these respective settings, but their defensive vulnerabilities suggest this could still open up. I’m leaning toward goals at both ends, a trend that has landed in all five of their previous meetings.
Suggested Bet: Both teams to score at 87/100
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Note: All prices correct at the time of writing but are subject to change
