La Liga Weekend Betting Preview, 12-14 September
La Liga roars back into action this weekend after the international break, and the schedule throws up plenty of intrigue. Barcelona, still unbeaten, return home for the first time this season in a clash with Valencia.
Atlético Madrid, winless so far, desperately need a spark at the Metropolitano against an in-form Villarreal and Sevilla, off to a stuttering start, look to build momentum when they welcome unbeaten Elche. Here are my thoughts on three standout fixtures this weekend, along with a suggested bet for each.
Before diving into the previews, it’s worth noting the bigger picture in the outright market. Barcelona are favourites to lift the title at 5/6, with Real Madrid close behind at even money. Athletic Bilbao are next best at 40/1, followed by a faltering Atlético Madrid at 50/1, while the rest of the field is priced at 66/1 or greater.
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FRIDAY
SEVILLA v ELCHE – Click here to bet
Sevilla have endured a rocky start to the new season, collecting just three points from their opening three fixtures. Their campaign began with consecutive defeats, a 3-2 loss away at Athletic Bilbao, followed by a disappointing 2-1 home defeat to Getafe. The tide finally turned on Matchday three, as Matías Almeyda’s side claimed their first win of the season with a 2-0 victory at Girona, providing a much-needed boost in confidence. Sitting 12th in the early standings, Sevilla will be eager to build momentum at home when they host Elche on Friday, aiming to climb further up the table.
Elche, by contrast, have made a very impressive return to the top flight, remaining unbeaten after three matches and sitting 7th with five points. They opened their account with 1-1 draws at home to Real Betis (6th last season) and away to Atlético Madrid (3rd last season), showing remarkable resilience against two of last season’s top-six finishers. Their most recent outing saw them claim maximum points with a 2-0 home win over fellow promoted side Levante, putting them in good stead ahead of the return to domestic football.
Head-to-Head
Recent meetings between these two have generally favoured Sevilla, who remain unbeaten in their last five encounters with Elche (W3, D2). Their most recent campaign came in 2022/23, when Sevilla claimed a 3-0 home victory before the reverse fixture ended in a 1-1 draw on the road.
Betting
Sevilla 1/1
Draw 12/5
Elche 3/1
Verdict
Sevilla have shown flashes of quality but remain inconsistent, particularly in defence. Elche arrive unbeaten and confident, having already held two of last season’s strongest sides in this campaign. Expect a gritty encounter between these two sides that are likely to feature goals from both ends.
Suggested Bet: Both Teams to Score – Yes at 1/1
SATURDAY
ATLÉTICO MADRID v VILLARREAL– Click here to bet
Atlético Madrid return home to the Metropolitano on Saturday still searching for their first win of the campaign. A 1-1 draw away at Alavés just before the international break stretched their winless start to three matches, leaving Diego Simeone’s side 17th in the standings with just two points. Their season began with a 2-1 away defeat to Espanyol before being held 1-1 by newly promoted Elche, and questions are mounting over both form and confidence ahead of this test against a top-four rival.
Villarreal, by contrast, have made an excellent start. Sitting 3rd with seven points, they opened with a solid 2-0 victory against Real Oviedo before thrashing Girona 5-0 at home. A 1-1 draw at Celta Vigo ensured they remain unbeaten, with eight goals scored and only one conceded so far. That balance of defensive solidity and attacking threat makes them one of the early pace-setters.
Head-to-Head
Atlético Madrid come into this clash with an unbeaten record in their last five meetings against Villarreal (W2, D3). Last season, the sides shared the spoils twice in La Liga, with a 2-2 draw in the reverse fixture followed by a 1-1 stalemate at the Metropolitano.
Betting
Atlético Madrid 9/10
Draw 27/10
Villarreal 3/1
Verdict
Atlético’s winless run has created an air of unease, while Villarreal look sharp and confident. Simeone’s side will rely on the home crowd to lift them, but this fixture comes at a difficult moment. With Villarreal unbeaten and well-organized, a share of the spoils looks the most likely outcome.
Suggested Bet: Full Time Result – Draw at 27/10
SUNDAY
BARCELONA v VALENCIA – Click here to bet
Barcelona host Valencia at the Estadi Johan Cruyff on Sunday for the first time this season, aiming to extend their unbeaten start to the 2025/26 La Liga campaign. They sit 4th with seven points from three matches, having opened with a commanding 3-0 win at Mallorca, a dramatic 3-2 comeback at Levante, and a 1-1 draw at Rayo Vallecano, a game marred by VAR controversy. While their attack has been sharp, defensive lapses have been exposed by their high line, leaving them vulnerable and having conceded the most “big chances” in the league so far.
Valencia, meanwhile, have endured a mixed start to their La Liga campaign, collecting four points from their first three matches. They began with a 1-1 home draw against Real Sociedad before falling to a narrow 1-0 defeat away at Osasuna. Carlos Corberán’s side bounced back in style with a dominant 3-0 win over Getafe at the Mestalla, lifting them to 9th in the table. The challenge now is to carry that momentum on the road against one of Spain’s elite.
Head-to-Head
The sides met three times last season, with Barcelona completing a league double over Valencia. The campaign began with a hard-fought 2-1 win on the road, before Barça returned home to deliver a commanding 7-1 victory. Their most recent meeting came in the Copa del Rey quarter-finals, where Barcelona cruised to a comprehensive 5-0 triumph at the Mestalla.
Betting
Barcelona 1/4
Draw 6/1
Valencia 9/1
Verdict
Barcelona’s attack is firing, but defensive lapses mean Valencia could still have a say in the final outcome. With delays at the Camp Nou, Barça will be playing at their smaller training ground, which could make goals more likely. I like the look of both teams finding the net, with Barcelona expected to claim maximum points in their first “home” game of the season.
Suggested Bet: Result and Both Teams to Score – Barcelona and Yes at 13/10
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Note: All prices correct at the time of writing but are subject to change
