This weekend, La Liga has some exciting matchups, with plenty of important battles happening across the table. We’ve picked out three fixtures that stand out with interesting betting angles and potential value.
Before diving into the matches, let’s take a quick look at the latest outright odds. After last weekend’s results, it’s shaping up to be a three-way race for the title. Barcelona remain the strong favourites at 1/5, with Real Madrid at 7/2. Despite being 7 points adrift, Atlético Madrid are still in the mix at 25/1, while the rest are priced at 1000/1 or higher.
Click here for all the long-term La Liga outright markets
SATURDAY
LEGANES v BARCELONA – Click here to bet
Saturday’s showdown at the Estadio Municipal de Butarque features two teams with very different priorities, as relegation-threatened Leganés welcome title-chasing Barcelona in a classic case of David vs. Goliath in La Liga.
For Leganés, the fight for top-flight survival remains an uphill battle. Last weekend’s 1-1 draw at home to Osasuna was a gritty, hard-earned point, but it did little to ease their position in the standings. Currently 18th with 28 points, Borja Jiménez’s men sit two points adrift of safety with just eight matches remaining. The margin for error is razor-thin, and the visit of league leaders Barcelona could hardly have come at a tougher time.
The numbers don’t offer much encouragement for the Pepineros. With only six wins all season and a single clean sheet in their last five home matches, their defensive frailties remain a major concern. They’ve earned just 18 of a possible 45 points at home (W5, D3, L7), and aside from a narrow win over mid-table Getafe, recent home performances have lacked the steel needed to repel elite opposition.
Barcelona, on the other hand, arrive in Madrid as the team to beat. Hansi Flick’s side are unbeaten in their last 11 La Liga outings (W9, D2) and sit four points clear at the summit with 67 points. While last weekend’s 1-1 draw against Real Betis at the Olimpic Lluis Companys was a minor stumble, it hasn’t slowed the Catalans’ march toward another league crown.
Despite juggling Champions League duties – including a taxing midweek quarter-final against Borussia Dortmund – Barcelona’s depth and focus remain unwavering. Their away form in the league has been nothing short of sensational, with 33 points claimed from a possible 45, and an eye-watering average of 2.8 goals per game on the road.
In fact, Barcelona have won their last three away league matches by two or more goals, brushing aside opponents with clinical efficiency. With Flick likely to rotate slightly ahead of the Champions League return leg in Germany next week, fringe players will be hungry to prove themselves, making them just as dangerous.
Head-to-Head
Leganés pulled off a surprise 1-0 victory in the reverse fixture back in December. The last time these two sides met in Madrid was in 2019, when Barcelona came away with a 2-1 win.
Betting
Leganés 7/1
Draw 5/1
Barcelona 7/20
Verdict
Even with the distraction of European commitments, Barcelona should still have too much quality for Leganés to handle. Expect a clinical display from the league leaders as they look to get the job done this weekend.
Suggested Bet: Handicap – Barcelona -1.5 at 9/10
SUNDAY
ALAVES v REAL MADRID – Click here to bet
Sunday’s meeting at the Estadio de Mendizorrotza presents two sides under pressure for vastly different reasons, as relegation-threatened Alavés host title-chasing Real Madrid in a fixture that could shape the fate of both ends of the La Liga table.
Alavés gave their survival hopes a massive boost last weekend with a surprise 1-0 victory against Girona—a result that lifted them out of the relegation zone and into 17th place. With just 30 points from 30 matches, Eduardo Coudet’s men are still walking a tightrope, two points clear of Leganés and very much in need of more results to secure their La Liga status for another season.
But consistency has been hard to come by. That win in Girona was only their second in the last ten league outings, and their home form offers little reassurance. El Glorioso have taken just 16 points from 14 home matches, scoring only 11 goals in front of their fans. They’ve also lost three of their last four at Mendizorrotza, and the visit of a wounded Real Madrid side could spell more trouble.
Carlo Ancelotti’s men arrive in Vitoria-Gasteiz needing a response after last weekend’s 2-1 loss at home against Valencia, a result that saw them fall four points behind Barcelona at the summit. Now sitting second with 63 points, Real Madrid cannot afford any more slip-ups if they are to stay in the title race heading into the final stretch.
The fixture comes in the middle of a daunting Champions League quarter-final tie against Arsenal. Real Madrid suffered a heavy 3-0 defeat in the first leg away in North London, and with the decisive return leg just three days after this match, Los Blancos may have one eye on Europe—raising questions over potential rotation and focus.
Madrid’s recent away form has been less than convincing, with just one win from their last four league outings on the road. Though their overall away record (W7, D5, L3) remains solid, Ancelotti will be aware that anything short of victory could effectively hand Barcelona a clearer path to the title.
Head-to-Head
Real Madrid have won each of their last six league meetings with Alavés, including a 3-2 victory earlier this season.
Betting
Alavés 4/1
Draw 16/5
Real Madrid 13/20
Verdict
Alavés are likely to put up a fight, but Real Madrid should have enough quality—even with one eye on Europe—to come away with a positive result.
Suggested Bet: Double Chance and Both Teams to Score – Draw/Real Madrid and Yes at 11/10
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REAL BETIS v VILLAREAL – Click here to bet
Sunday evening’s clash between Real Betis and Villarreal promises to be a gripping affair, as two evenly matched sides lock horns in a fixture that could have serious implications for European qualification next season.
Real Betis, currently 6th in La Liga, have quietly gone about their business with a sense of resilience and purpose. Following a hard-earned 1-1 draw away to Barcelona last weekend, the Heliopolitans extended their unbeaten domestic streak to seven matches, comprising six wins and a draw – a run that has put them firmly in the conversation for a top-five finish. With 48 points from 30 matches (W13, D9, L8), Manuel Pellegrini’s men are hitting their stride at just the right time.
However, Betis’ preparations may be hampered by their midweek exertions in the Europa Conference League, featuring in a demanding quarter-final first leg against Polish outfit Jagiellonia Białystok. A three-day turnaround is far from ideal, especially with a direct rival like Villarreal waiting in the wings.
That said, Betis will draw confidence from their formidable home form. With four straight league victories at the Benito Villamarín, they have turned their stadium into a fortress. Impressively, they’ve claimed 19 points from their last eight league outings – a tally only bettered by Barcelona during the same stretch.
Their opponents, Villarreal, currently sit 5th in the table, level on points with Betis but narrowly ahead on goal difference. The Yellow Submarine will know that avoiding defeat is essential to keeping their slim edge intact. Marcelino’s side are unbeaten in their last two league games – including a gritty 0-0 draw at home to Athletic Bilbao last weekend – and arrive in Seville with momentum and rest on their side, having no European commitments this week.
Villarreal also have a strong historical edge in this fixture, unbeaten in four of their last five visits to the Andalusian capital (W3, D1, L1). Their away form this season has been among the league’s best, with 27 points from 15 matches – a tally only bettered by Barcelona heading into the weekend.
Head-to-Head
Real Betis secured a 2-1 win in the reverse fixture earlier this season, while last season saw Villarreal come out on top with a 3-2 victory on the road in this encounter.
Betting
Real Betis 27/20
Draw 26/10
Villareal 2/1
Verdict
Given the significance of the occasion and the current form of both teams, one could make a case for either side. However, I’m going to stick my neck out and go for a draw.
Suggested Bet: Full Time Result – Draw at 26/10
Click here for all this weekend’s Spanish Football action
Note: All prices correct at the time of writing but are subject to change
