With just four rounds remaining, the race for European football is entering a decisive phase. This weekend’s La Liga fixtures carry serious weight for clubs chasing continental qualification, with several sides still jostling for Champions League and Europa League spots. I’ve picked three standout matchups that not only influence the standings but also offer strong betting angles based on current form and motivation.
Before diving into the selections, here’s a quick look at the latest outright odds. Barcelona remain strong favourites at 1/12 to clinch the title, but Real Madrid’s recent surge—now priced at 7/1—has tightened the race and keeps the pressure on the league leaders. Meanwhile, the battle for fourth between Villarreal and Athletic Bilbao looks set to go right down to the wire.
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SATURDAY
GIRONA v VILLARREAL – Click here to bet
Girona welcome Villarreal to the Estadio Municipal de Montilivi on Saturday evening, hoping to salvage what has been a deflating end to their campaign. After finishing third last season in remarkable fashion, Míchel’s side have slumped to 15th, sitting on just 38 points—43 fewer than their previous tally. While they’re not yet mathematically safe, a six-point cushion with four games remaining should see them avoid the drop.
The hosts managed to halt a four-game losing streak with a 1-0 win over Mallorca, followed by a draw in their last outing, offering some much-needed stability. At home, they’ve collected 24 points from 17 matches (W7 D3 L7), scoring 27 and conceding 25. Montilivi has been a lively venue too, with 12 of those 17 games producing three or more goals.
Villarreal, by contrast, remain firmly in the hunt for Champions League football. Sitting 5th on 58 points—just three behind Athletic Bilbao—Marcelino’s men arrive in Catalunya on the back of two straight wins, most recently a 4-2 victory over Osasuna. That result marked their 16th league win and kept them hot on the heels of the top four.
Despite some recent inconsistencies away from home, Villarreal boast the third-best away record in La Liga, with 30 points from 17 trips (W9 D3 L5). They’ve scored 24 and conceded 22, with 10 of those matches featuring at least three goals—underscoring their attacking intent on the road.
Head-to-Head
The reverse fixture ended in a 2-2 draw, while Villarreal also won this fixture 2-1 last season. In fact, the Yellow Submarine have enjoyed complete dominance at Montilivi, winning their last six visits in all competitions.
Betting
Girona 85/40
Draw 27/10
Villarreal 12/10
Verdict
Girona have shown slight improvement in recent weeks, but their overall form remains a far cry from last season. Villarreal, meanwhile, arrive with clear motivation and solid momentum. Given their strong away record and excellent history at Montilivi, the visitors look well-placed to take all three points. Expect goals too, with both teams favouring high-scoring encounters.
Suggested Bet: Full Time Result – Villarreal at 12/10
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SUNDAY
BARCELONA v REAL MADRID – Click here to bet
Sunday afternoon delivers a blockbuster clash as Barcelona host Real Madrid in another edition of El Clásico. With only four rounds to go and just four points separating the sides, this one could prove decisive in the title race.
Barcelona currently top the table with 79 points, following last weekend’s 2-1 away win at Valladolid. However, their hopes of a historic quadruple were dashed midweek as they lost 4-3 after extra time to Inter Milan, succumbing to a 7-6 aggregate scoreline. With the Champions League now out of reach, La Liga remains their main objective as they pursue a domestic treble.
Domestically, the Blaugrana have been outstanding—unbeaten in 15 league matches (W13 D2). At the Estadi Olímpic Lluís Companys, Hansi Flick’s men have been formidable, earning 40 points from 17 home games (W13 D1 L3). They’ve scored 46 goals and conceded just 14, with 11 of those games producing over 2.5 goals.
For Real Madrid, this is their last realistic chance to reignite their title hopes. Carlo Ancelotti, set to leave at season’s end, knows only a win will suffice. Los Blancos sit second on 75 points, coming off a nervy 3-2 home win over Celta Vigo—a match in which they nearly squandered a comfortable lead.
Madrid travel to Catalunya buoyed by three consecutive away victories in the league. They’ve claimed 32 points from 17 road games (W9 D5 L3), scoring 28 and conceding 15. Just over half of their away matches (9) have produced over 2.5 goals.
Head-to-Head
Barcelona cruised to a 4-0 win in the reverse fixture earlier this season, though Madrid took this fixture 2-1 last term. Their most recent meeting saw Barça edge a 3-2 victory in the Copa del Rey final last month.
Betting
Barcelona 21/20
Draw 16/5
Real Madrid 23/10
Verdict
With the title on the line, both sides will be fully committed in what promises to be another thrilling El Clásico. Barcelona’s home form and attacking firepower give them a slight edge, but with this set to be Carlo Ancelotti’s final Clásico, and coming off the back of Barcelona’s midweek Champions League heartbreak, it would be unwise to write off the visitors. Recent encounters between these two have been full of goals, and this clash could be no different.
Suggested Bet: Double Chance and Both Teams to Score – Barcelona/Real Madrid and Yes at 9/10
REAL BETIS v OSASUNA – Click here to bet
The final match of the La Liga weekend takes us to Seville, where European hopefuls Real Betis host mid-table Osasuna at the Estadio Benito Villamarín. With just four rounds remaining, every point is vital for Betis, who remain firmly in the hunt for continental qualification.
Manuel Pellegrini’s side currently sit 6th with 57 points, just one behind the Europa League qualification spot and four away from a potential Champions League berth. They come into Sunday’s clash on a high, having secured a 2-1 win away to Espanyol last weekend—their third successive league victory.
At home, Betis have been consistent if not spectacular, collecting 32 points from 17 outings (9 wins, 5 draws, 3 defeats). They’ve struck 30 times at home while conceding 19, and fans at the Benito Villamarín have certainly had their share of entertainment—11 of those 17 matches have delivered over 2.5 goals.
Osasuna, on the other hand, make the trip south with little more than pride to play for. Vicente Moreno’s side sit 9th with 44 points and, realistically, are out of the running for a European place, trailing the top five by 14 points with just 12 left to play for.
Their slim hopes were dashed last weekend after a 4-2 defeat at Villarreal, snapping a five-match unbeaten run and perhaps signalling the beginning of a wind-down for the campaign. On the road, Osasuna have struggled—managing just 14 points from 17 matches (2 wins, 8 draws, 7 losses). Goal-scoring has also been an issue away from home, with just 13 goals scored and 27 conceded. It’s no surprise then that 11 of their 17 away games have featured under 2.5 goals.
Head-to-Head
Real Betis claimed a 2-1 away win in the reverse fixture earlier this season, and they’ve had the better of this rivalry recently—winning each of the last three league meetings without fail, including a 2-1 home win last season.
Betting
Real Betis 8/13
Draw 16/5
Osasuna 9/2
Verdict
With greater motivation and home advantage, Betis look well positioned to keep their European charge on track. Osasuna’s away woes and lack of attacking punch suggest this is a matchup that strongly favours the hosts.
Suggested Bet: Full Time Result – Real Betis at 8/13
Click here for all this weekend’s Spanish Football action
Note: All prices correct at the time of writing but are subject to change
