This weekend, we enter Matchday 22 of La Liga, featuring some exciting matchups. In this preview, we’ll take a closer look at three key fixtures, offering betting insights and recommendations to help guide your selections.
Before we dive into the action, let’s take a quick look at the current title race odds. Real Madrid, who’ve reclaimed the top spot, are now the 4/9 favourites to clinch the league title, with Barcelona closely behind at 7/2. Atlético Madrid, sitting in second, can be backed at 11/2, while the remaining challengers are trailing far behind with odds of 100/1 or higher.
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SATURDAY
ATLÉTICO MADRID v RCD MALLORCA – Click here to bet
Having secured their place in the round of 16 in the Champions League following a dominant 4-1 performance away to Salzburg on Wednesday evening, Atlético Madrid will be looking to bounce back from last weekend’s 1-1 draw at home to Villarreal when they host Mallorca at the Metropolitano Stadium this Saturday. Diego Simeone’s side has been in excellent form, winning eight of their last ten league matches (W8, D1, L1) and maintaining an outstanding home record this season. With 27 points secured from 11 home matches, Atlético sit second in La Liga with 45 points from 22 matches, just four points behind league leaders Real Madrid. This weekend presents a key opportunity to bridge the gap with another strong performance in front of their home supporters.
At home, Atlético Madrid have been solid offensively, scoring 21 goals at an average of 1.90 per game, while their defence has been even more impressive, conceding just 7 goals at 0.63 per match. However, goals haven’t been as plentiful at the Metropolitano, with two goals or fewer being scored in 55% of their home games (6 out of 11), reflecting a more tactical, controlled style of play on their turf.
RCD Mallorca make their way to Madrid this weekend hoping to revive their campaign after a promising start to the season. They spent much of the first part of the campaign in the upper half of the table, but recent performances have exposed some vulnerabilities. Mallorca have lost their last two La Liga matches, including a 1-0 defeat at home to Real Betis last weekend, and have now suffered four consecutive defeats across all competitions, failing to score in any of those games. Despite sitting 6th in the La Liga standings with 30 points from 21 games (W8, D6, L7), their recent struggles make this a tough challenge against one of the league’s most in-form sides.
On the road, Mallorca have managed to score an average of 1 goal per game, totalling 10 goals, while conceding 14 at a rate of 1.4 per match. Interestingly, over 2.5 goals have been seen in 50% of their away games (5 out of 10), indicating a balanced but occasionally high-scoring nature to their travels.
Head-to-Head
Earlier this season, Atlético secured a 1-0 victory over Mallorca in the reverse fixture, repeating the same scoreline from last season’s meeting at the Metropolitano.
Betting
Atlético Madrid 4/9
Draw 7/2
RCD Mallorca 15/2
Verdict
Mallorca appear to be struggling for goals at the moment, and with back-to-back losses in La Liga heading into Saturday’s encounter, there’s a strong sense that we may see a similar outcome, given their recent form and the history between these two sides.
Suggested Bet: Atlético Madrid To Win To Nil, Yes at 19/20
ESPANYOL v REAL MADRID – Click here to bet
Espanyol will be hoping to build on their 1-1 draw away to Sevilla last weekend when they host Real Madrid at the RCDE Stadium this Saturday. Despite struggling for consistency in recent weeks, Espanyol managed to salvage a point on the road, which will give them a small boost as they prepare for a tough fixture. The Catalan side have won just one of their last seven La Liga matches, drawing four of their last six league outings, and they are currently in the relegation zone in 18th place with 20 points from 21 matches (W4, D8, L9). While the draw with Sevilla was a positive result, Espanyol will need to improve their overall performances if they are to climb out of the relegation zone and secure their La Liga status for next season.
Espanyol have scored 15 goals in 11 home games this season, averaging 1.36 goals per match, while conceding 13 at a rate of 1.18 per game. Both teams have found the net in 70% of their home fixtures, and over 2.5 goals have been scored in 6 out of 11 games, reflecting a 55% hit rate for higher-scoring encounters.
At the top of La Liga, Real Madrid continue to look formidable, holding a four-point lead with 49 points from 21 matches. Carlo Ancelotti’s side extended their winning streak to four league games last weekend, cruising to a 3-0 victory over Valladolid on the road. Having scored 50 goals and conceded just 20 this season, they have been impressive at both ends of the pitch. Real Madrid enter the weekend off the back of a comprehensive 3-0 win away to Brest on Wednesday in Europe, placing them 13th overall in the Champions League, league phase. With the title firmly in their sights, they will be eager to secure another three points against a vulnerable Espanyol side.
On their travels, Real Madrid have scored 22 goals, averaging 2 goals per game, while conceding 10 at a rate of 0.91 per match. Their away games have been highly entertaining, with over 2.5 goals featuring in 64% of their matches (7 out of 11).
Head-to-Head
Real Madrid have won their last four encounters against Espanyol, including a comfortable 4-1 victory in the reverse fixture and a 3-1 win in their most recent visit to the RCDE Stadium last season.
Betting
Espanyol 8/1
Draw 9/2
Real Madrid 1/3
Verdict
I quite like the look of Madrid on the handicap, despite Espanyol’s recent run of draws. Carlo Ancelotti’s men have consistently dispatched Espanyol in recent years, winning their last four encounters by a margin of two goals or more—a pattern I’m more than happy to back again here.
Suggested Bet: Handicap, Real Madrid -1.5 at 10/11
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SUNDAY
BARCELONA V DEPORTIVO ALAVÉS – Click here to bet
Barcelona will look to continue their strong push for the title as they host Deportivo Alavés at the Olympic Lluis Companys on Sunday. Currently in 3rd place with 42 points, the Blaugrana are 7 points behind league leaders Real Madrid and will be eager to close the gap. Barcelona were involved in Europe on Wednesday, where they were held to a 2-2 draw at home against Atalanta. Despite dropping points, they secured their place in the round of 16, ultimately finishing as runners-up in the Champions League, league phase. On the domestic front, Hansi Flick’s side bounced back in spectacular fashion last weekend, demolishing Valencia 7-1 in a dominant display. While trailing in the points race, Barcelona have dazzled with the most goals scored this season, registering an impressive 59 goals so far, while conceding 24. Their attacking firepower has been relentless, and they will be confident in extending their run against a struggling Alavés side.
Barcelona have been prolific at home, averaging 3 goals per game with a total of 29 goals scored, while conceding just 1 per match, shipping 9 in total. Over 2.5 goals have been a consistent feature in their games, with 7 out of 9 matches seeing three or more goals, a ratio of 78%.
Deportivo Alavés, on the other hand, are in a precarious position, sitting just above the relegation zone in 17th place with 21 points from 21 matches. They are only one point ahead of the bottom three and continue to struggle this season. Last weekend, Alavés were held to a 1-1 draw at home by Celta Vigo, extending their difficult run. Their defensive issues have been glaring, having conceded 33 goals so far, and they have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last nine consecutive La Liga outings. With Barcelona’s high-scoring attack awaiting them this weekend, Alavés will have their work cut out if they are to avoid defeat.
Deportivo Alavés have averaged 1.36 goals per game on the road, scoring 15 goals in total while conceding 2 goals per match, with 22 goals shipped. Unsurprisingly, their away games have seen an 82% ratio of over 2.5 goals, with 9 out of 11 matches featuring three or more goals.
Head-to-Head
Earlier this season, Barcelona comfortably secured all three points with a 3-0 win in the reverse encounter, extending their winning run to three consecutive victories against Alavés. Last season, the Blaugrana also triumphed in this fixture, winning 2-1 at home.
Betting
Barcelona 2/9
Draw 13/2
Deportivo Alavés 11/1
Verdict
Deportivo Alavés are unlikely to contain Barcelona this weekend in a game where they will be desperate for damage limitation. Expect the hosts to win and win well, in what is likely to produce a decent amount of goals along the way.
Suggested Bet: Barcelona Totals, Over 2.5 at 15/20
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Note: All prices correct at the time of writing but are subject to change
