We take a look at a few compelling matchups in this midweek round of La Liga action, with European qualification and top-half positions still up for grabs. Here are my thoughts, along with some betting angles worth considering.
Before diving into the action, let’s take a look at the current outright market odds. With just six matches to go, it’s very much a two-horse race at this stage, with Barcelona firm favourites at 1/8 and Real Madrid their only realistic challengers at 9/2. Atlético Madrid are priced at 40/1, while the rest of the field trail far behind at 1000/1.
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TUESDAY
BARCELONA v RCD MALLORCA – Click here to bet
Barcelona return to action at the Estadi Olímpic Lluís Companys this week, just days after producing one of their most dramatic performances of the season. Trailing 3-1 at home to Celta Vigo, Hansi Flick’s side staged a remarkable turnaround, scoring three unanswered goals—including a winner deep into stoppage time—to seal a 4-3 victory.
That result extended their excellent run, with just one defeat in their last 26 matches across all competitions. The Catalan giants sit top of La Liga with 73 points from 32 matches, having recorded 23 wins, 4 draws, and 5 defeats. They currently hold a four-point lead over their nearest rivals, Real Madrid, heading into the final stretch of the season.
With a Copa del Rey final against Real Madrid coming up this weekend, followed by a Champions League semi-final first leg at home to Inter Milan, Barcelona are entering a defining phase of their season. Still in the hunt for a third continental treble—their last achieved in 2014/15—the stakes couldn’t be higher.
Home form continues to be a cornerstone of their campaign. Barcelona are unbeaten in their last 13 matches at the Lluís Companys in all competitions, including a run of eight league fixtures that has yielded seven wins and one draw. Overall, they’ve taken 37 points from a possible 48 at home in La Liga this season, winning 12, drawing 1, and losing 3 of their 16 games as hosts. They’ve also found the net 45 times in those home matches — an average of just under three goals per game.
RCD Mallorca, meanwhile, arrive in Catalonia following a frustrating goalless draw at home to Leganés on Saturday—a match they will feel they should have won to keep their European hopes firmly on track.
Currently 7th in the table with 44 points from 32 matches, Jagoba Arrasate’s side have been a tough nut to crack of late. They’ve lost just twice in their last 10 La Liga outings, a run that includes three wins and five draws.
However, their form on the road remains a concern. The Vermilions have managed just five league points from their last six such matches, suffering three defeats in that span. Overall, they’ve picked up 20 points from a possible 48, with a record of 6 wins, 2 draws, and 7 losses. They’ve conceded 19 goals during that run and currently hold a goal difference of minus five away from home.
Head-to-Head
Earlier this season, Barcelona cruised to a 5-1 victory in the reverse fixture, while last season, they edged out a 1-0 win in this encounter.
Betting
Barcelona 1/4
Draw 11/2
RCD Mallorca 10/1
Verdict
Barcelona’s momentum, especially at home where they’ve gone 13 games unbeaten, should carry them past a Mallorca side that has struggled on the road. With key fixtures looming, Hansi Flick may rotate, but the depth and confidence in this Barça squad should still prove decisive. Expect a clinical performance and another home win for the league leaders.
Suggested Bet: Handicap – Barcelona -1.5 at 7/10
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WEDNESDAY
CELTA VIGO v VILLARREAL – Click here to bet
As the race for European spots intensifies in La Liga, Celta Vigo will look to reignite their campaign on Wednesday evening when they host Villarreal at the Estadio de Balaídos.
Celta currently sit just outside the European places in 8th with 43 points, and they’ll be eager to bounce back after a heart-wrenching 4-3 defeat to Barcelona at the weekend. Despite leading 3-1 with just under 30 minutes to play, Claudio Giráldez’s men were ultimately undone by the Catalan giants’ late surge.
That dramatic loss marked a second straight defeat for the Sky Blues, who are desperate to halt their slide as the season enters its decisive final stretch. Fortunately, their home form offers cause for optimism. Celta have suffered just one defeat in their last five home league outings, picking up three wins and a draw in the process. In total, they’ve secured 30 of their 43 points at Balaídos this season, boasting a respectable home record of 9 wins, 3 draws, and 4 losses.
Meanwhile, Villarreal make the midweek trip to Vigo in confident mood. Unbeaten in their last four league matches—with two wins and two draws—Marcelino’s side remain firmly in the hunt for Champions League qualification. A 2-2 draw with Real Sociedad on Sunday kept them in 5th place with 52 points, four clear of sixth-placed Real Betis with seven matches remaining.
What has truly elevated Villarreal’s campaign is their outstanding away form. The Yellow Submarine have won four of their last five matches on the road, including back-to-back away victories. With 30 points collected from 16 away games, Villarreal boast the second-best away record in La Liga, having lost just four times and gone unbeaten in 12 away fixtures with 9 wins and 3 draws.
Head-to-Head
Earlier this season, Villarreal edged a thrilling reverse fixture 4-3 on home soil, while last term’s meeting at Balaídos saw Celta Vigo come out on top with a 3-2 victory.
Betting
Celta Vigo 15/10
Draw 5/2
Villareal 18/10
Verdict
With both sides showing attacking intent and plenty to play for, Wednesday’s clash could feature goals at both ends. Celta’s fighting spirit and strong home form may be matched by Villarreal’s sharpness on the road, making both teams to score all the more appealing.
Suggested Bet: Both Teams to Score – Yes at 5/8
THURSDAY
ATLETICO MADRID v VALLECANO – Click here to bet
Atlético Madrid return to the Estadio Metropolitano on Thursday evening eager to respond after a frustrating 1-0 defeat away to Las Palmas. Diego Simeone’s side remain firmly in third place with 63 points from 32 matches and are well on course for another season of Champions League football, despite a recent dip that has seen them lose three of their last six across all competitions.
If there has been one constant in Atlético’s season, it’s their home form. The Rojiblancos have lost just once in the league at the Metropolitano, collecting 11 wins and 4 draws from 16 outings. Their most recent home fixture saw them dispatch Valladolid 4-2 in a confident display. That record should give them plenty of belief as they welcome a struggling Rayo Vallecano side.
Rayo Vallecano, by contrast, continue to limp toward the finish line, currently sitting 10th in the league with 41 points. A 1-1 draw with Valencia over the weekend ended a two-game losing streak, but the warning signs remain. They’ve conceded eight goals in their last three league fixtures and managed just one clean sheet from their last eight outings. Defensive frailties, combined with a poor away record—just one win in their last four on the road—leave them vulnerable against a side they’ve historically struggled to beat in this fixture.
In fact, Rayo have picked up just one point from their last ten league visits to Atlético. With only 20 points from 15 away games this season and little momentum behind them, escaping the capital with a result looks a tall order.
Head-to-Head
Earlier this season, the sides shared the spoils in a 1-1 draw in the reverse encounter, while last season in Madrid, Atlético came out on top with a 2-1 victory in this fixture.
Betting
Atlético Madrid 5/8
Draw 29/10
Rayo Vallecano 5/1
Verdict
Atlético Madrid’s home dominance, coupled with Rayo’s uncharacteristically shaky defensive form of late, suggests a straightforward night for Simeone’s side. Expect a solid response from the hosts as they look to bounce back from the weekend disappointment in clinical fashion.
Suggested Bet: Full Time Result – Atlético Madrid at 5/8
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Note: All prices correct at the time of writing but are subject to change
