UEFA Nations League Betting Preview, Thursday 14 November

This Thursday, we turn our attention to two crucial encounters in the UEFA Nations League, each carrying its own significance for very different reasons. As always, we provide insights and betting options for you to consider.

Before doing so, let’s take a look at the current outright markets. Spain remain the favourites at 3/1, with Germany improving as the next best option at 4/1. Hot on their heels are both France and Portugal, each priced at 9/2, while Italy is keeping pace at 6/1. The rest of the field is priced at 12/1 or greater.

Click here for the latest Outright Odds as well as Group Betting

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BELGIUM v ITALY– Click here to bet

These sides have been placed in League A Group 2 alongside France and Israel.

After a disappointing 2-1 defeat at home to France on match day four, the Red Devils recognize that Thursday’s clash against Italy in Brussels is their final opportunity to stake a claim for a quarterfinal berth. Currently sitting 3rd in the table with 4 points from their opening four games, Belgium now find themselves five points adrift of the runner-up spot, with only two matches remaining. Having registered just one victory on match day one against Israel, it’s fair to say Domenico Tedesco’s men have endured a challenging UEFA Nations League campaign. Should the Belgians fail to secure maximum points this week, their next best aim will likely be to survive a relegation play-off in League A. With Belgium averaging a modest 1.5 goals per game in the tournament and yet to keep a clean sheet, the hosts face a formidable challenge in what looks to be an exceptionally difficult task.

Table-toppers Italy will head to Brussels knowing that a draw will be enough for the Azzurri to secure their place in the quarter-finals. With 10 points from a possible 12, they remain unbeaten in the tournament so far, boasting three wins and a draw. Coming off an emphatic 4-1 victory at home against Israel last month, the Italians will be confident they can get the job done on Thursday, especially given Belgium’s somewhat lacklustre campaign, which has left the hosts appearing vulnerable. After already claiming a major scalp on the road with a 3-1 victory over France, it seems there is little standing in the Azzurri’s way. Although Luciano Spalletti’s side has yet to register a clean sheet in the tournament, they have more than compensated with their dynamic play, averaging an impressive 2.75 goals per game in the group stages to date.

Head-to-Head

These sides have met 25 times in total, with Italy dominating the record with 16 wins, 5 draws, and 4 losses. Their most recent encounter ended in a 2-2 draw last month in the reverse fixture of this season’s UEFA Nations League campaign.

Betting

Belgium 29/20

Draw 12/5

Italy 39/20

Verdict

Belgium’s desperation could ultimately work against them in this crucial encounter, as they will need to take risks throughout the match. While the visitors know that a point will secure their place in the next round, I feel their price for a win is inflated. The last time these two teams met earlier last month, the match ended 2-2 in Italy, but it’s important to note that Italy were leading 2-0 before going down to ten men in the 38th minute. With better discipline this time, there’s no reason why Italy can’t secure their fourth win of the tournament. However, to cover for the possibility of a draw, I recommend backing Italy with a draw no bet at a very generous 11/10 as additional precaution.

Suggested Bet: Draw no bet, Italy at 11/10

GREECE v ENGLAND – Click here to bet

These sides have been placed in League B Group 2 alongside Republic of Ireland and Finland.

This Thursday, Greece will host England in Athens in what promises to be a crucial showdown for securing top spot in the group. Currently leading with 12 points, the Greeks made a strong statement last month by defeating England 2-1 at Wembley, a famous victory on English soil. They followed that up with a comfortable 2-0 win at home to Ireland on match day four. With form firmly on their side this tournament, Ivan Jovanović’s side remain unbeaten, boasting four consecutive wins in the UEFA Nations League. Should they avoid defeat this Thursday, the sky blue and whites will be promoted to League A for the first time in their history. Averaging 2.25 goals per game and conceding just once throughout the tournament, the Ethniki are well poised to make history, knowing that overcoming the mighty Three Lions is all that stands in their way.

Last month’s defeat at home to Greece means England face a tough task if they are to secure promotion to Group A. Interim manager Lee Carsley has been forced to make significant changes to his squad for the remaining two matches against Greece and Ireland, with a staggering eight players now unavailable due to injuries. With so much working against them, the mighty Three Lions risk being forced into an additional playoff scenario if they fail to get the job done on Thursday. Despite the crushing 2-1 loss to Greece, England bounced back with a convincing 3-1 win away to Finland, a result that has kept them in contention for the top spot in Group B2 with 9 points. However, Thursday’s clash will undoubtedly be their sternest test, knowing that Greece have yet to concede at home in this tournament. Nevertheless, with England averaging 2 goals per game in the competition, they will still be seen as a significant threat, and will be hoping Harry Kane can make a statement upfront after missing the reverse fixture between these two in London last month.

Head-to-Head

These sides have met 10 times overall, with England dominating the record with 7 wins, 2 draws, and 1 defeat. Their most recent encounter ended in a 2-1 victory for Greece at Wembley Stadium in the reverse fixture earlier last month.

Betting

Greece 33/10

Draw 5/2

England 9/10

Verdict

Despite England going into Thursday’s game as odds-on favourites, I’m not convinced they will walk away as victors. Having struggled with creativity when these two last met, and now travelling with an even more depleted side, I think Greece are the way to go here. A draw at home will be enough for them to gain promotion for the first time—an incentive they will surely want to seize in Athens.

Suggested Bet: Double Chance, Draw or Greece at 9/10

Click here for betting on all of this week’s matches

Note: All prices correct at the time of writing but are subject to change