This Sunday evening, international football continues with the second leg of the League A quarter-final playoffs. Below are our suggested betting markets and insights to consider.
Let’s start with the latest outright markets. Germany now leads the way as favourites at 22/10, with Spain still in close contention as second best at 5/2. Portugal follows at 11/2, while both France and Croatia enter the equation joint at 7/1. The rest of the field is priced at 12/1 or better, keeping the race wide open.
.Click here for the latest UEFA Nations League Outright Betting Odds
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GERMANY v ITALY – Click here to bet
Germany will host Italy at Signal Iduna Park in Dortmund for the second leg of their UEFA Nations League quarter-final tie, holding a 2-1 lead from the first leg. Despite going a goal down, Germany responded brilliantly with two quick second-half strikes, placing them in a strong position ahead of this decisive encounter.
Italy will need a vastly improved performance if they are to overturn the deficit. Luciano Spalletti’s side has been uncharacteristically shaky at the back, and defensive lapses proved costly in the first leg. With Nicola Berella and Sandro Tonali leading the midfield battle, the Azzurri must strike the right balance between attack and defence to stand a chance in Munich.
Germany, meanwhile, will look to build on their first-leg comeback. Julian Nagelsmann’s side remains unbeaten in this competition (W5, D2, L0), and with the likes of Leon Goretzka and Jamal Musiala in fine form, Die Mannschaft will be confident of finishing the job at home.
Head-to-Head
Germany are unbeaten against Italy in their last seven encounters, winning three and drawing the remaining four. Thursday’s 2-1 victory for the Germans means they have won their last two consecutive meetings with the Italians heading into Sunday’s crucial second-leg tie.
Betting
Germany 15/20
Draw 29/10
Italy 7/2
Verdict
Germany’s home advantage and superior attacking firepower should give them the edge. However, Italy’s pedigree in high-stakes matches means they cannot be underestimated.
Suggested Bet: Result and Totals – Germany and Over 2.5 at 17/10
SPAIN v NETHERLANDS – Click here to bet
Spain and the Netherlands meet at the Estadio de Mestalla for the decisive second leg of their UEFA Nations League quarterfinal tie after an evenly poised 2-2 draw in Rotterdam. Mikel Merino’s 93rd-minute equaliser denied the Dutch a crucial first-leg victory, leaving everything to play for in Madrid.
The Netherlands will feel hard done by after controlling large spells of the first leg and holding the lead deep into stoppage time. Ronald Koeman’s side looked dangerous going forward, with Cody Gakpo and Jeremie Frimpong proving a constant threat. They will need to replicate that attacking intensity while also tightening up defensively to avoid another late setback.
Spain, meanwhile, showcased their resilience in Rotterdam and will be eager to finish the job at home. Luis de la Fuente’s men are unbeaten in their last seventeen international matches and will look to impose their high-tempo possession game. With the likes of Pedri, Lamine Yamal, and Álvaro Morata leading the charge, Spain will fancy their chances of securing a semi-final berth.
Head-to-Head
Following Thursday’s 2-2 draw between these two in the first leg, the Netherlands are unbeaten in their last eight meetings with Spain, winning five and drawing three.
Betting
Spain 7/10
Draw 3/1
Netherlands 15/4
Verdict
Spain’s home advantage and superior ball control could be decisive, but the Netherlands’ attacking threat makes them a dangerous opponent. Expect a tense battle, with both sides finding the net again.
Suggested Bet: Both Teams to Score – Yes at 8/10
PORTUGAL v DENMARK – Click here to bet
Portugal host Denmark at the Estádio José Alvalade in Lisbon for the decisive second leg of their UEFA Nations League quarter-final tie. The Danes hold a narrow 1-0 lead from the first leg, thanks to Rasmus Højlund’s crucial goal in Copenhagen. With a spot in the semi-finals on the line, Portugal will be looking to overturn the deficit in front of their home fans.
Denmark showcased their defensive solidity in the first leg, frustrating Portugal with a well-organized performance. Kasper Schmeichel was kept relatively quiet thanks largely to Denmark’s impressive defence, which limited Portugal to just two shots on target. Meanwhile, Denmark’s impressive eight shots on target proved to be the difference. Rasmus Kristensen and Jannik Vestergaard effectively neutralized Portugal’s attacking threats, ensuring their side takes an advantage into the second leg. However, they will be wary of the challenge that awaits in Lisbon, where Portugal has been formidable.
Portugal, despite their setback in the first leg, will take confidence from their strong home record in this competition. Roberto Martínez’s side boasts a wealth of attacking options, including Cristiano Ronaldo, Bruno Fernandes, and João Félix, who will be eager to make an impact. Expect Portugal to dictate the tempo early on as they push for an equalizer.
Head-to-Head
Despite Thursday’s 1-0 defeat to the Danes, Portugal has historically fared well against Denmark, winning three of their last four meetings. The last time these sides met in Portugal, the hosts secured a 1-0 victory.
Betting
Portugal 8/13
Draw 16/5
Denmark 9/2
Verdict
Portugal will likely dominate possession and create plenty of chances. However, Denmark has proven to be a tough side to break down. While the visitors will look to protect their advantage, Portugal’s attacking quality should eventually shine through.
Suggested Bet: Result and Totals – Portugal and Under 2.5 at 29/10
FRANCE v CROATIA – Click here to bet
France welcomes Croatia to the Stade de France for the second leg of their UEFA Nations League quarter-final tie, needing a strong response after a shock 2-0 defeat in Split. Croatia took full advantage of their home fixture, stunning the 2021 champions with a composed and clinical performance. Now, they travel to Paris with a golden opportunity to book their place in the semi-finals.
Zlatko Dalić’s side executed a perfect game plan in the first leg, frustrating France while taking their chances when they arrived. Their ability to control the midfield, led by Luka Modrić, was pivotal, and defensively, they remained compact to nullify the threat of Kylian Mbappé and company. However, playing away from home presents a different challenge, and Croatia will need to withstand an expected early French onslaught.
France, despite their setback, will take confidence from their dominant home form. Didier Deschamps’ squad is packed with firepower, and with the likes of Mbappé and Kolo Muani in attack, they are more than capable of overturning the deficit. Expect Les Bleus to start aggressively, knowing that an early goal could completely shift the momentum in their favour.
Head-to-Head
France has historically had the upper hand in this fixture, but Croatia’s recent results suggest momentum is on their side. Thursday’s 2-0 victory over France means Croatia are now unbeaten in their last three meetings with Les Bleus, recording two wins and a draw.
Betting
France 9/20
Draw 15/4
Croatia 6/1
Verdict
France will be determined to make amends, and with their attacking firepower, a comeback is certainly within reach. Croatia, however, will be tough to break down and may pose a threat on the counter. While France should edge the match, Croatia’s two-goal cushion might prove decisive.
Suggested Bet: Result and Both Teams to Score – France and Yes at 9/4
Click here for betting on all of this week’s international matches
Note: All prices correct at the time of writing but are subject to change
