With three groups yet to be decided for the upcoming UEFA EURO 2024 in Germany, we’re focusing on three crucial games in the semi-final qualifications, where three teams will secure their spot in the final path to EURO 2024.
The outright market to qualify for EURO 2024 currently favours Poland in path A at 1/1, Ukraine in path B at 1/1, and Greece in path C at 11/10.
Click here to view each nation’s chance of progressing in the qualifiers
PATH A
WALES v FINLAND– Click here to bet
Wales, ranked 29th in the FIFA rankings, finished 3rd in group D. Despite not progressing through automatic qualification, they will host Iceland, buoyed by an impressive home record in the Euro qualifiers. Having lost just once in fifteen matches, the Welsh appear to be an ideal candidate worth backing to progress, considering the consistency they have shown while playing in Cardiff.
Wales last five matches: DDWWW (W-Won), (D-Drawn), (L-Lost)
Finland was desperately unlucky in Group H, finishing 3rd, with just four points separating them from automatic qualification. Ranked 60th in the FIFA Rankings, they visit Cardiff knowing they will have to perform much better than during their last visit in 2020, which resulted in a comfortable 3-1 win for Wales in the United Nations League. However, they do enter this crucial tie with momentum on their side, having registered back-to-back victories, which will undoubtedly boost their confidence.
Finland last five matches: WWLLL (W-Won), (D-Drawn), (L-Lost)
The winner of this encounter will face the winner between Poland and Estonia for the final playoff spot, determining who qualifies for Group D EURO 2024.
Over/Under Stats (UEFA EURO Group Stage Qualifiers)
Two out of Wales’ four home games resulted in under 2.5 goals arriving.
Three out of Finland’s five away games resulted in over 2.5 goals landing.
Head-To-Head
01.09.21 Finland 0-0 Wales (International Friendly)
18.11.20 Wales 3-1 Finland (United Nations League)
Wales have recently outperformed their opponents in tournaments. Having secured back-to-back victories over them in the 2020/21 United Nations League, they aim to continue this trend in the upcoming playoff. Despite a draw in their most recent international friendly, competitive football is where it matters most. Wales have turned Cardiff into a bit of a fortress and despite Finland securing three away wins in the qualifiers, I favour the hosts.
Recommended Bet: Full Time Result, Wales at 10/11
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PATH B
ISRAEL v ICELAND– Click here to bet
Israel failed to progress automatically from Group I, finishing in 3rd place overall. Currently 75th in the FIFA rankings, they will have another opportunity to qualify by facing Iceland in the playoffs. This game will be played at a neutral ground in Hungary due to political unrest in Israel, offering Iceland a lifeline, as both nations enter this all-important tie on equal footing.
Israel last five matches: WLDLW (W-Won), (D-Drawn), (L-Lost)
Iceland managed 4th spot in Group J but found themselves well adrift from the pacesetters. Registering 3 wins and 6 losses sums up their miserable run in the qualifiers. Currently 73rd in the FIFA rankings, they enter this playoff with a more optimistic chance, knowing this will not be played in Israel but in Hungary, where the crowd should be less hostile from a home crowd point of view.
Iceland last five matches: WWLLW (W-Won), (D-Drawn), (L-Lost)
The winner of this encounter will face the winner between Bosnia & Herzegovina and Ukraine for the final playoff spot, determining who qualifies for Group E EURO 2024.
Over/Under Stats (EUFA EURO Group Stage Qualifiers)
Three out of Israel’s five home games resulted in under 2.5 goals arriving.
Four out of Iceland’s five away games resulted in over 2.5 goals arriving.
Head-To-Head
13.06.22 Iceland 2-2 Israel (United Nations League)
02.06.22 Israel 2-2 Iceland (United Nations League)
If this were hosted as intended in Israel, my views would likely be very different. Israel only managed one win marked as a home fixture in the qualifying group stages, having conceded an average of one goal per game during that period. Iceland performed poorly away from home but will feel they have a better chance of progressing, knowing this game is being played in Budapest.
Recommended Bet: Double Chance And Both Teams To Score, Draw/iceland And Yes at 7/4
PATH C
GEORGIA v LUXEMBOURG– Click here to bet
Georgia is currently ranked 77th in the FIFA rankings and finished 4th in Group A in the earlier European Championship qualifiers. With only two wins registered in their respective group stages, they will be hoping this second opportunity brings about better luck in front of their home supporters as they continue their journey to the Euro’s.
Georgia last five matches: LDWWL (W-Won), (D-Drawn), (L-Lost)
Luxembourg, ranked 85th in the FIFA rankings, finished 3rd behind Portugal and Slovakia in Group J. They can count themselves rather unfortunate, having registered five victories en route to automatic qualification. Sadly for the Red Lions, it was still not enough, as they trailed eventual 2nd-placed Slovakia by 5 points in the end. This Thursday, they will have an opportunity to make amends in the hopes of making it to the final stage for qualification purposes.
Luxembourg last five matches: WWLDL (W-Won), (D-Drawn), (L-Lost)
The winner of this encounter will face the winner between Greece and Kazakhstan for the final playoff spot, determining who qualifies for Group F EURO 2024.
Over/Under Stats (UEFA EURO Group Stage Qualifiers)
Three out of Georgia’s four home games resulted in over 2.5 goals arriving.
Four out of Luxembourg’s five away games resulted in under 2.5 goals arriving.
Head-To-Head
05.06.18 Luxembourg 1-0 Georgia (Friendly International)
15.08.12 Luxembourg 1-2 Georgia (Friendly International)
This fixture looks like a difficult proposition to call outright and given that they are in such close proximity in the rankings, we could be in for a close game considering how evenly matched they appear to be. Playing at home will give Georgia the edge, but I do feel Luxembourg can trouble the hosts. With both sides having averaged just over a goal in their respective groups, I am taking a chance and backing each of them to find the net.
Recommended Bet: Both Teams To Score, Yes at 12/10
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Note: All prices correct at the time of writing but are subject to change
