South Africa and Rwanda meet in a critical World Cup 2026 qualifier at Mbombela Stadium in Nelspruit on Tuesday. To stand any chance of making it to the finals, South Africa must win and then hope other results in Group C go their way.
Group C Permutations
South Africa have made life difficult for themselves after an administrative error cost them 3 points earlier in the campaign, and they then failed to beat a 10-man Zimbabwe side in Durban on Friday.
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Benin sit top with 17 points and are the only side with their destiny in their own hands.
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South Africa have 15 points.
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Nigeria are just behind on 14 points.
The good news for South Africa is that Nigeria host Benin at the same time they face Rwanda.
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If Nigeria win, South Africa will qualify with a win over Rwanda.
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If Nigeria and Benin draw, South Africa must win by 2 goals or more to go through.
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Nigeria qualify if they beat Benin 1-0 or by 2+ goals and South Africa fail to beat Rwanda.
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Rwanda are already out and cannot qualify.
- Benin can qualify with a win and also a draw if South Africa fail to beat Rwanda or don’t beat them by enough
Form Guide
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South Africa: They played out a disappointing goalless draw with Zimbabwe on Friday. Despite dominating much of the second half, they rarely tested the keeper. Before that, they drew 1-1 with Nigeria.
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Rwanda: They still had hope going into their clash with Benin on Friday but lost 1-0 to an 80th-minute winner, ending their qualification chances.
Head-to-Head
In the reverse fixture in 2023, Rwanda stunned South Africa with a 2-0 win at home, in a match where SA started as 2.25 favourites.
Betting Odds
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South Africa 1.25
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Draw 5.25
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Rwanda 13.00
Verdict
It’s hard to back South Africa at such short odds after their poor showing against Zimbabwe. However, Rwanda are eliminated and their motivation may be questionable although Zimbabwe celebrated their draw as if they had won a trophy.
I’m leaning towards South Africa to do enough, and I like the double with Nigeria to beat Benin.
Click here to bet on South Africa v Rwanda
Click here to bet on Nigeria v Benin
Bet 1: Double – South Africa to win (1.25) & Nigeria to win (1.36) = 1.70
South Africa should also create more in front of their home fans, and with the stakes so high, I’ll take them to score freely.
Bet 2: South Africa Over 2.5 Team Goals at 2.50
Prices correct at the time of writing but subject to change.
