This Wednesday, the UEFA Nations League returns with the first heavyweight semi-final showdown as hosts Germany take on Portugal at the Allianz Arena in Munich. Here are my thoughts on the match, featuring key insights, head-to-head trends, and a potential betting angle to consider ahead of kick-off.
Let’s start with the latest outright markets. Hosts Germany lead the way in the knockout stages as favourites at 7/4, followed closely by Spain at 22/10. France are next best at 29/10, with Portugal rounding out the remaining contenders at 4/1. It’s a competitively priced field, underlining just how closely matched the final four are and how open this stage of the tournament promises to be.
Click here for the latest outright odds in the knockout stages
GERMANY v PORTUGAL– Click here to bet
Four-time World Cup winners and three-time European champions Germany will host the first semi-final of the 2024/25 UEFA Nations League at the Allianz Arena this Wednesday, as they look to secure a spot in the final and add yet another piece of silverware to their storied history.
After a frustrating quarter-final exit at the hands of eventual winners Spain during UEFA EURO 2024, head coach Julian Nagelsmann responded with a sweeping transition in personnel—ushering in a new generation of talent. The likes of Manuel Neuer, Toni Kroos, Ilkay Gündogan, and Thomas Müller were omitted from the squad, prompting their international retirements and signalling a fresh direction for Die Mannschaft.
The shift appears to be paying off. Germany cruised through Group A3—finishing unbeaten ahead of Bosnia & Herzegovina, Hungary, and the Netherlands—with four wins and two draws. They struck 18 goals while conceding just four along the way. In the quarter-finals, they edged past Italy 5-4 on aggregate after a 2-1 victory in Milan and a dramatic 3-3 draw in Dortmund.
That second-leg thriller was the first time Germany had conceded at home in this tournament—and the first in six home matches across all competitions. Still, their record on home soil remains formidable, particularly against Portugal, whom they’ve beaten in each of their last three home meetings. In fact, Germany have won each of their last five encounters with the Seleção overall, and they’ll be confident of extending that dominant run as they chase a maiden Nations League crown.
Portugal, meanwhile, arrive in Munich with their sights set on a second UEFA Nations League title, having claimed the inaugural edition back in 2019. Under the guidance of Roberto Martínez, the one-time European champions have impressed once again. Their group stage campaign mirrored Germany’s, with four wins and two draws against Croatia, Scotland, and Poland in Group A1, scoring 13 and conceding five.
Their biggest test came in the quarter-finals, where a narrow 1-0 defeat in Copenhagen handed Denmark the advantage, but back in Lisbon, Os Navegadores stayed true to their name—steering their way through a tense second leg. After finishing 3-2 in regulation time to level the tie, extra time was required, during which Portugal added two more goals to seal a 5-3 aggregate victory—underlining their resilience and experience in knockout football.
That said, question marks continue to surround the effectiveness of Cristiano Ronaldo’s role at the helm of the national side. While his leadership and wealth of experience are beyond dispute, there are growing concerns that his limited mobility and declining pace may be stunting Portugal’s ability to evolve on the international stage. Against a youthful and energetic German outfit, the presence of a more static forward could potentially hamper their attacking fluidity.
Adding to the challenge is Portugal’s underwhelming away form during the competition—they’ve scored only four goals on the road and have managed just one clean sheet. Combined with a poor record against Germany—just one win in their last six meetings and three straight defeats on German soil—Martínez’s side will need a tactically sharp and physically disciplined performance to overcome the hosts and book a place in Sunday’s final.
Head-to-Head
Germany have won each of their last five encounters with Portugal, including a memorable 4-2 thriller in their most recent clash at the Allianz Arena back in 2021.
Betting
Germany 17/20
Draw 27/10
Portugal 16/5
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Verdict
I like the look of Germany to prevail at 17/20, with their strong recent record against Portugal giving them the edge. Having failed to score away to Denmark, questions remain over Portugal’s ability to break down a disciplined German defence — one that has kept a clean sheet in five of their last six home matches in all competitions. The hosts look well positioned to get the job done in regulation time.
Suggested Bet: Full Time Result – Germany at 17/20
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Note: All prices correct at the time of writing but are subject to change
