Matchday Four of the World Cup qualifiers continues this Tuesday as the Netherlands return home to face Malta, while Finland look to steady the ship against group leaders Poland. Here are my thoughts along with a suggested bet for each encounter.
The race for the 2026 World Cup is already taking shape in the outright markets, with Spain currently leading the pack at 11/2. Brazil and France are close behind at 6/1 and 13/2 respectively, while England remain firmly in the mix at 7/1. Defending champions Argentina are priced at 8/1, and Germany also feature among the leading contenders at 10/1. For those looking further afield, there’s no shortage of longer-odds options, with most other nations available at 12/1 or bigger.
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NETHERLANDS v MALTA – Click here to bet
The Netherlands kicked off their World Cup 2026 qualifying campaign with a composed 2-0 victory away to Finland, placing them third in Group G. Ronald Koeman’s side have suffered just one defeat in their last nine matches in regulation time (W3, D5, L1), and now turn their attention to Tuesday’s home clash against Malta at the Euroborg in Groningen.
Having joined the qualifiers late due to their UEFA Nations League commitments, the Oranje will be eager to collect their first home points in the group. They are unbeaten in their last four home fixtures (W2, D2), all of which have featured at least four goals. In fact, each of their last seven home outings has seen over 2.5 goals scored, indicating a potential for another lively contest on Tuesday evening.
Malta, meanwhile, sit at the foot of Group G following a goalless draw with Lithuania and a 2-0 loss to Poland. Emilio De Leo’s side are winless in their last four games (D2, L2) and have yet to find the net in this qualification campaign.
With just one point from their opening three World Cup Qualifying matches, Malta face a daunting task in Groningen. They’ve lost seven of their last eight matches on the road, registering just two goals during that stretch. Given the disparity in quality and form, another defeat appears almost inevitable for the visitors.
Head-to-Head
These sides have met six times before, with the Netherlands winning all six by an aggregate score of 28-0. Their most recent meeting came in 1995, when the Dutch ran out 4-0 winners.
Betting
Netherlands – 1/40
Draw – 17/1
Malta – 80/1
Verdict
With their depth, form, and flawless record against Malta, the Netherlands are expected to cruise to a comfortable win. While Malta may try to frustrate early on, Koeman’s men should eventually assert dominance and pull away convincingly.
Suggested Bet: Handicap – Netherlands -3.5 at 17/20
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FINLAND v POLAND – Click here to bet
We stay in Group G for Tuesday’s clash as Finland look to regroup on home soil following a frustrating 2-0 defeat to the Netherlands over the weekend. That result leaves them on four points from three games and under growing pressure — especially with the Dutch just one point behind and holding two games in hand.
Form hasn’t been kind to Jacob Friis’s side, who have managed just one win in their last nine competitive outings (W1, D1, L7). Even that lone victory — a narrow 1-0 win over Malta — did little to ease concerns over their defensive frailties. Worryingly, Finland have now conceded in 13 of their last 14 matches.
Their home record makes for even grimmer reading. The Finns have lost four consecutive matches in Helsinki, scoring only twice and conceding nine goals in that run. In each of those games, they’ve shipped at least two — a troubling trend as they welcome Group G leaders Poland.
Poland, by contrast, are off to a strong start. Following a 1-0 friendly win over Moldova, they return to qualifying action with maximum points from their opening two matches. With a 1-0 victory over Lithuania and a 2-0 win over Malta already in the books, Michał Probierz’s men are yet to concede in the group and will travel to Finland full of confidence.
That said, Tuesday’s game marks Poland’s first away fixture of the qualifiers, and their recent record on the road is patchy. The Eagles have lost their last two away games — a narrow 1-0 defeat to Croatia and a heavy 5-1 loss to Portugal in the UEFA Nations League. Still, Finland are not of the same calibre, and Poland will see this as an ideal opportunity to reassert themselves away from home.
Head-to-Head
This fixture has a rich history, with 30 meetings between the nations. Poland lead the way with 19 wins, while Finland have managed just 3, and 8 matches have ended in draws. Their most recent meeting was a 5-1 Polish victory in a 2020 friendly, though the last competitive clash in Finland — back in a 2007 World Cup qualifier — ended in a 0-0 draw.
Betting
Finland – 15/4
Draw – 5/2
Poland – 5/6
Verdict
Poland’s superior squad depth and recent form make them deserved favourites here, especially given Finland’s ongoing struggles. While the hosts may aim to frustrate, the visitors should have enough quality to grind out a win in Helsinki.
Suggested Bet: Full Time Result – Poland at 5/6
Click here for betting on all of this week’s international matches
Note: All prices correct at the time of writing but are subject to change
