Matchday Three of the UEFA World Cup qualifiers continues this Friday — here are my thoughts on two fixtures that could shape the early dynamics of their respective groups and offer potential value from a betting perspective.
Looking ahead to the 2026 World Cup, early outright markets have France, Spain, and Brazil leading the way at 6/1, with England just behind at 7/1. Defending champions Argentina are priced at 8/1, while Germany also feature among the frontrunners at 10/1. There’s still plenty of potential value further down the list, with most other nations available at 14/1 or greater.
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NORWAY v ITALY – Click here to bet
Norway continue their pursuit of a first World Cup appearance since 1998 when they host Italy in Oslo on Friday evening. Ståle Solbakken’s side have made an ideal start to Group I, sitting top of the table with six points from two matches. They followed up a 5-0 win over Moldova with an impressive 4-2 victory against Israel in Hungary — nine goals scored and just two conceded so far.
Erling Haaland remains the focal point in attack. Despite a quieter domestic campaign with Manchester City by his standards (22 Premier League goals), he comes into this fixture with six goals in his last four international appearances. He’s supported by Alexander Sørloth, who ended the season strongly at Atlético Madrid and has found the net in five of his last six outings for the national team.
Norway have lost just once in their last eight competitive matches (W6, D1) and come into this contest riding a four-game winning streak.
Italy, meanwhile, make their Group I debut after a disappointing UEFA Nations League exit. Luciano Spalletti’s side were knocked out by Germany, losing 2-1 at the San Siro before salvaging a 3-3 draw in the return leg, going out 5-4 on aggregate. The Azzurri are now winless in three (D1, L2) and have kept just one clean sheet in their last 12 matches.
Goals have flowed in recent Italy fixtures — seven of their last eight have seen over 2.5 goals — and they’ve looked far less solid defensively than usual. Mateo Retegui should return to the squad after missing the Germany tie. The Atalanta striker enjoyed a superb Serie A season, finishing as the league’s top scorer with 25 goals.
Head-to-Head
This will be the first competitive meeting between the sides since Italy’s 2-1 win in 2015. The Azzurri are unbeaten in their last four against Norway (W3, D1).
Betting
Norway 13/8
Draw 26/10
Italy 16/10
Verdict
Despite their strong head-to-head record, Italy’s current defensive frailties suggest this could be a tricky outing. Norway are in excellent form and carry a serious threat in attack. Both teams to score looks a strong possibility in what could be an open, entertaining contest.
Suggested Bet: Totals and Both Teams to Score – Over 2.5 and Yes at 19/20
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NORTH MACEDONIA v BELGIUM – Click here to bet
North Macedonia welcome Belgium to the National Arena Toše Proeski for a key Group J encounter in the 2026 World Cup qualifiers. The hosts currently top the group with four points from their opening two matches — a comfortable 3-0 win over Liechtenstein followed by a hard-earned 1-1 draw with Wales.
Blagoja Milevski’s side are unbeaten in their last eight competitive matches (W6, D2), keeping six clean sheets in that time. They’ve also avoided defeat in each of their last eight home games (W4, D4), earning positive results against the likes of Italy and England — evidence of their growing tactical discipline and resilience.
Belgium, meanwhile, are looking to kick off their campaign positively after a difficult Nations League run and underwhelming recent friendlies. They managed just one win in Group A2, with four losses and a draw, and had to overturn a 3-1 first-leg deficit to Ukraine in the relegation playoff — eventually sealing survival with a 3-0 win in the return leg.
Under new head coach Rudi Garcia, Belgium appear to be transitioning away from their golden generation. That may not be a bad time to do so, given that North Macedonia and Wales are likely to be their toughest opposition in a group that also includes Kazakhstan and Liechtenstein.
Despite their traditionally strong record in World Cup qualifying, Belgium’s current form leaves room for doubt. They’ve only just ended a six-game winless streak (D1, L5), and have conceded 11 goals across that stretch — hardly reassuring from a defensive standpoint.
With North Macedonia in good form and Belgium still settling into a new era, this has the makings of a tight, competitive clash.
Head-to-Head
These sides last met in a 2013 World Cup qualifier, with Belgium winning 1-0. They’ve met four times in total, with Belgium unbeaten in all four and winning the last three.
Betting
North Macedonia 8/1
Draw 15/4
Belgium 4/10
Verdict
North Macedonia’s recent record, especially at home, suggests they’re being underestimated by the market. Belgium should come out on top, but given their inconsistency, backing the hosts with a goal cushion looks like solid value.
Suggested Bet: Handicap – North Macedonia +1.5 at 15/20
Click here for betting on all of this weekend’s international matches
Note: All prices correct at the time of writing but are subject to change
