We are down to the final week of AFCON 2023 and we take a look at the 3rd and 4th playoff between South Africa and the DR Congo as well as the Final on Sunday between Nigeria and host, Ivory Coast.
SATURDAY
SOUTH AFRICA v DR CONGO – Click here to bet
The 3rd place playoff is a game neither of these teams wanted to play when they lined up for their semi-finals on Wednesday night.
South Africa were 11/2 underdogs against Nigeria, but they fought hard to equalise in the 90th minute via a penalty kick. They then missed a golden chance to win the game in regulation time and after a red card in extra time were hanging on for penalty kicks. There were no heroics from goalkeeper, Ronwen Williams this time around and Nigeria progressed to the final.
South Africa’s previous matches of the knock-out stages had seen them beat favourites Morocco 2-1 and Cape Verde on penalties after the match finished goalless after extra time.
DR Congo lost their semi-final 1-0 against the Ivory Coast going down to a 65th minute strike. They had beaten Egypt on penalties in the Round of 16 before turning in probably their best performance of the Tournament beating Guinea 3-1 in the quarter-finals.
These sides met in a friendly International in 2023 with South Africa winning 1-0.
These games are always hard to pick as it is tough to know how motivated the teams are, but South Africa can certainly hold their heads up high after an exciting campaign that has seen them play a positive brand of football. On that note, I will be looking to both of these sides to throw caution to the win and will be betting that we get 3 goals or more in the game.
Suggested Bet: Over 2.5 goals at 23/20
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SUNDAY
NIGERIA v IVORY COAST
Nigeria booked their spot in the Final with a thrilling penalty victory over South Africa. They had taken the lead from the spot in the 67th minute and with injury time approaching, appeared to score a 2nd goal only for South Africa to be awarded a penalty which they converted.
Nigeria had the better of extra time, but eventually required penalties to progress. That penalty conceded to South Africa in regulation time was the first goal they let past them in 5 matches and all 6 of Nigeria’s matches in AFCON have delivered profits for under 2.5 goal backers.
The Ivory Coast are the team that just won’t go away and after a disappointing group stage, where they lost 2 of their 3 matches, they scraped through to the round of 16 beating Senegal on penalties before an extra time victory over Mali in the quarter-finals. They were 11/10 favourites to win their semi-final against DR Congo and they duly obliged thanks to a 65th minute goal.
These sides met in the group stages when Nigeria won a tight game thanks to a 55th minute penalty.
BETTING – Click here to bet
Nigeria 33/20
Draw 39/20
Ivory Coast 21/10
I think we are heading for extra time yet again and will back the 90 minute draw, but also have a speculative play that the hosts, Ivory Coast will win the Tournament on a penalty shoot-out. It would be quite fitting given how they have been hanging in and defying the odds.
Suggested Bet: The draw at 39/20
Suggested Bet: Victory Method, Ivory Coast penalties 17/2
Note: All prices correct at the time of writing but are subject to change
