We take a look at the two semi-finals taking place on Wednesday night in AFCON 2023 including the big clash between Tournament favourites, Nigeria and South Africa.
Nigeria are the 23/20 favourites to lift the African Cup of Nations with Ivory Coast, the hosts, priced at 39/20. You can get 5/1 DR Congo and South Africa are the outsiders at 7/1.
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NIGERIA v SOUTH AFRICA
NIGERIA
The Nigerians qualified second in their group behind Equatorial Guinea, winning 2 and drawing 1 of their matches. They were then 19/20 favourites to see off Cameroon in the Round of 16 and duly obliged with a 2-0 victory. That booked them a quarter-final spot against Angola who had been scoring goals freely throughout the Tournament, but Nigeria kept their 4th clean sheet in a row for a 1-0 victory in a game where they started 9/20 favourites.
SOUTH AFRICA
South Africa finished runners-up in Group E behind Mali with 1 victory, a draw and a loss in their 3 matches. They were drawn against then Tournament favourites, Morocco, in the Round of 16 and they could have been backed at 13/2 before kick-off. South Africa scored 2 second-half goals to win 2-0 before a quarter-final clash with Cape Verde, with plenty of money for South Africa to the point where they went from 5/2 underdogs to 17/10 Favourites. Cape Verde probably had the better of the match, but South Africa managed to get it to penalties where Goalkeeper, Ronwen Williams was outstanding saving 4 penalties to send them through to the semi-finals.
HEAD-TO-HEAD
These sides met 3 times in the African Cup of Nations 2019, twice in qualifying where South Africa – Nigeria drew 1-1 in South Africa, but South Africa won 2-0 in Nigeria. However, in the Cup itself, it was Nigeria who won 2-1.
South Africa have only beaten Nigeria once in their last 10 matches across all competitions.
BETTING – Click here to bet
Nigeria 8/13
Draw 26/10
South Africa 11/2
Both these sides have kept 4 consecutive clean sheets and it is no surprise that over 2.5 goals is trading at 17/10. If South Africa can reproduce the performance they delivered against Morocco they can beat the Nigerian side that has been solid, but not dominant throughout the Tournament.
I was leaning towards the 0-0 draw in the Correct Score Market at 5/1, but I am going to make this a patriotic play and will back South Africa to win in the 90 minutes.
Suggested Bet: South Africa win at 11/2
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IVORY COAST v DR CONGO
IVORY COAST
The Ivory Coast have been on the verge of exiting the Tournament on a number of occasions, but they just won’t go away. They scraped through to the Round of 16 finishing 3rd in their group with 1 win and 2 losses and they then fell behind Senegal in the Round of 16 before coming back to beat them on penalties. There was more of the same in the quarter-final against Mali with Mali taking a 71st minute lead only for the Ivory Coast to equalise in the 90th Minute before scoring the winner in the 122nd minute to avoid a penalty shoot-out.
DR CONGO
DR Congo finished 2nd behind Morocco in Group F, drawing all 3 of their matches. They then had a tough task against Egypt, but came through on penalties before proving too strong for Guinea and winning the quarter-final 3-1 despite falling behind to a 20th minute penalty.
HEAD-TO-HEAD
These sides met in AFCON 2022 with the sides playing out to a goalless draw, but there has actually been a remarkable history of goals between the sides with the previous 11 matches seeing both teams find the back of the net and 11 of their last 12 head-to-heads having 3 goals or more in them.
BETTING – Click here to bet
Ivory Coast 23/20
Draw 2/1
DR Congo 3/1
While this is likely to be a cagey affair early on, I feel that it could open up and we could get something similar to the 4 goals we saw in the DR Congo quarter-final.
Suggested Bet: Over 2.5 goals at 19/10
Note: All prices correct at the time of writing but are subject to change
