The 2025/26 top-flight campaign kicks off in style this Sunday at Wembley Stadium, as Premier League champions Liverpool take on surprise FA Cup winners Crystal Palace in the FA Community Shield.
While often dismissed as little more than a glorified friendly, the Community Shield still carries weight—offering early silverware, a competitive test, and a chance to set the tone ahead of the new Premier League season.
Before diving into my thoughts on Sunday’s showdown—and a suggested bet to consider—it’s worth taking stock of how the Premier League title race is shaping up in the outright betting markets ahead of next weekend’s official kick-off.
Liverpool lead the way at 7/4 to retain their crown, followed closely by last season’s runners-up Arsenal at 9/4. Manchester City—looking to bounce back from a below-par campaign—are priced at 7/2, while Chelsea emerge as potential dark horses at 10/1. For those still clinging to hopes of a Manchester United revival, the Red Devils are currently listed at 30/1, with the rest of the field priced at 50/1 or greater.
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CRYSTAL PALACE v LIVERPOOL – Click here to bet
Having stunned Manchester City 1-0 in May’s FA Cup final, Crystal Palace arrive at Wembley riding an historic high. That victory marked the club’s first-ever major trophy in their 119-year history, and under Oliver Glasner, the Eagles have transformed from mid-table strugglers into a tactically astute, big-match side with real bite.
This marks Palace’s debut appearance in the Community Shield, but they’re not just here to make up the numbers. With Jean-Philippe Mateta enjoying a strong 2024/25 campaign—netting 14 league goals—Eberechi Eze pulling the strings in midfield, and a defence that held firm during their cup and league runs, Glasner’s men have every reason to believe they can upset the odds once again.
Palace’s trademark compact shape and lethal counter-attacking threat make them a formidable force in one-off fixtures. While their 12th-place league finish last season may not grab headlines, it belies a strong end to the campaign. The Eagles finished unbeaten in their final six matches, recording two wins and four hard-fought draws. That run culminated in a resilient 1-1 draw against Liverpool at Selhurst Park on the final day—highlighting their growing belief and ability to compete with the elite.
Their FA Cup triumph has lifted the mood and ambitions at the club, but uncertainty remains over the future of talisman Eberechi Eze, who is reportedly attracting interest from Arsenal. Holding onto their creative heartbeat will be crucial if Palace are to build on their momentum and continue evolving under Glasner’s guidance.
Premier League champions once again, Liverpool return to Wembley aiming to kick-start Arne Slot’s second season with silverware. The Dutchman made a seamless transition into the Anfield dugout, guiding the Reds to a record-equalling 20th league crown in convincing fashion and proving a worthy successor to Jürgen Klopp. Now, with the pressure of that transition behind him, Slot will look to consolidate Liverpool’s domestic dominance—and this clash presents an ideal opportunity.
Liverpool’s recent Community Shield record is somewhat mixed, with just one win from their last three appearances. That victory came in 2022, when they produced an impressive 3-1 win over Manchester City. Prior to that, the Reds suffered consecutive penalty shootout defeats—falling to City in 2019 and Arsenal in 2020. Historically, however, Liverpool are well acquainted with this stage, having lifted the Shield 16 times—ranking third all-time behind Arsenal (17) and Manchester United (21).
A proactive summer in the transfer market has added fresh dynamism to Liverpool’s squad. Attacking right-back Jeremie Frimpong brings pace and penetration down the flank, while Bundesliga imports Florian Wirtz and Hugo Ekitike offer versatility and creativity in the final third. Crucially, Mohamed Salah’s contract extension—signed late last season—ensures the Reds’ attacking talisman remains central to their plans. On paper, Liverpool have the depth and firepower to dictate proceedings—but they’ll be wary of a spirited Palace side with nothing to lose.
Head-to-Head
Liverpool have dominated this fixture historically, winning 12 of the last 16 league encounters. However, recent meetings have been far more competitive, with three of the last six ending in draws and goals often at a premium. Last season, the Reds edged a narrow 1-0 win at Anfield, before Palace earned a gutsy 1-1 draw on the final day at Selhurst Park—underlining how tight this matchup has become.
Betting
Crystal Palace 9/2
Draw 16/5
Liverpool 8/13
Prediction
On paper, Liverpool should have the edge—but the Community Shield rarely follows a script. Crystal Palace are confident, well-drilled, and buoyed by recent success. With silverware already secured this year, they’ll believe another upset is within reach.
Expect a cagey opening, but Liverpool’s superior depth and big-match experience should ultimately tip the scales. Still, Palace have proven they can rise to the occasion—and they won’t go down without a fight.
Suggested Bet: Result and Totals: Double Chance and Total – Draw/Liverpool and Under 3.5 at 8/11
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Note: All prices correct at the time of writing but are subject to change
