This Wednesday, we turn our attention to the English Premier League, focusing on three standout matches. As always, we’ve provided key insights and a suggested bet for each game that could pique your interest.
Before we dive into the fixtures, let’s take a look at the latest outright markets. Liverpool remain firmly in control at the top, holding a 12-point lead and priced at an overwhelming 1/66 to win the title. Given the lack of value in backing them outright, alternative markets might be more appealing.
One such market to consider is the ‘Winner Without the Big Six,’ where Nottingham Forest are currently favoured at 8/11. However, Newcastle could offer better value at 7/4.
Click here for English Premier League Outright Betting
BRIGHTON v ASTON VILLA – Click here to bet
A pivotal clash in the race for European football unfolds on the South Coast as Brighton welcome Aston Villa to the Amex Stadium on Wednesday evening. After their humiliating 7-0 defeat at the hands of Nottingham Forest, Brighton’s European ambitions seemed to have faded, prompting serious questions about their form. However, since that debacle, the Seagulls have staged a rather impressive turnaround.
Brighton have responded strongly with consecutive home victories over Chelsea, including a commanding 3-0 win, before dismantling Southampton away and edging past Bournemouth 2-1 at home. Late drama has played a key role in their resurgence, with João Pedro’s last-minute penalty securing a crucial victory against Fulham in the Premier League. However, their FA Cup dream was dashed over the weekend, as they were eliminated by Nottingham Forest in a penalty shootout after a 0-0 draw, ending their hopes of a semi-final berth at Wembley. Despite this setback, Brighton now find themselves in seventh place with 47 points, just two points off the top four.
Aston Villa, meanwhile, are just two points behind their Wednesday hosts in ninth place and come into this fixture in excellent form, having won five consecutive matches across all competitions. Unai Emery’s side have been dominant at Villa Park, suffering just one league defeat and ranking fifth in home points earned. However, their away form tells a different story. With only 17 points collected on the road, Villa rank among the league’s weakest travellers, with only the bottom four, Everton, and Tottenham faring worse. Defensively, their struggles away from home are even more pronounced, as they have conceded more goals (27 in total) than all but the bottom four sides.
Another challenge for Villa has been their ability to navigate congested fixture schedules. They have often found it difficult to perform in matches immediately following European commitments. While this fixture comes a week before their Champions League trip to PSG, it is nestled between an FA Cup tie that featured this past Sunday (with Villa winning 3-0 away to Preston) along with a crucial home clash against third-placed Nottingham Forest this coming Saturday. With their attention potentially split, Villa will need to display their resilience this Wednesday if they are to secure a positive result away to Brighton.
Head-to-Head
Recent meetings between these two sides have been evenly matched, with each team registering one win and a draw in their last three encounters. In the reverse fixture earlier this season, the match ended in a 2-2 draw at Villa Park, while Brighton claimed all three points last season with a 1-0 victory in this fixture.
Betting
Brighton 11/10
Draw 29/10
Aston Villa 9/4
Verdict
Brighton’s recent resurgence in the league, combined with Villa’s inconsistent away form, gives the Seagulls the upper hand in this matchup. Brighton have developed a clinical edge in recent weeks and will be confident of securing a positive result on Wednesday. However, despite their impressive turnaround, Brighton have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last two home matches, and Villa’s well-documented defensive issues on the road suggest this could be an entertaining affair.
Suggested Bet: Double Chance and Both Teams to Score – Brighton/Draw and yes at 1/1
NEWCASTLE UNITED v BRENTFORD – Click here to bet
Newcastle United return to Premier League action on Wednesday, fresh off ending their seven-decade wait for a major trophy with an emphatic 2-0 victory over Liverpool in the League Cup final before the international break. With European football firmly in their sights, the Magpies will aim to carry that momentum into their clash with Brentford at St James’ Park.
Newcastle sit just two points off the top four with 47 points (W14, D5, L9) and have been solid at home, winning four of their last six league matches at St James’ Park. However, defensive issues persist, despite their 1-0 win at West Ham in their last league outing—Newcastle’s first clean sheet in seven top-flight games. Eddie Howe will be hoping this newfound defensive solidity continues, as limiting pressure on their attack will be key to securing another important three points against a Brentford side that can capitalize on any mistakes.
Meanwhile, Brentford travel to the North East having lost just once in their last five league outings. The Bees have been impressive on the road, unbeaten in their last six away matches and winning the last five in succession. Currently sitting 11th in the table with 41 points (W12, D5, L12), they have been one of the league’s most resilient travelling sides. However, their recent away victories have come against teams largely in the lower half of the table, with only Brighton (0-0 draw) and Bournemouth (2-1 win) among the top-half teams. Facing a Newcastle side in strong home form will pose a different challenge, and Thomas Frank’s men will need to be at their best to extend their impressive run.
Head-to-Head
Newcastle have had the upper hand in recent encounters, winning six of their last seven meetings against Brentford. Their most recent clash saw the Magpies claim a 3-1 victory in the EFL Cup, while earlier this season, it was Brentford who ended their five-game losing streak against Newcastle with a comprehensive 4-2 win at home in the league.
Betting
Newcastle United 8/11
Draw 33/10
Brentford 33/10
Verdict
Newcastle’s strong home form, coupled with their impressive display in the League Cup final against Liverpool, should give them the edge in this encounter. While Brentford’s away record is commendable, I believe that with everything going in Newcastle’s favour at the moment, they will be difficult to beat at St James’ Park. At 8/11 for a home win, and with their strong head-to-head record against the Bees, I see great value in backing the Magpies here.
Suggested Bet: Full Time Result – Newcastle United at 8/11
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LIVERPOOL v EVERTON – Click here to bet
The Merseyside derby takes centre stage at Anfield on Wednesday as Liverpool look to bounce back from a disappointing spell, while Everton aim to continue their impressive resurgence under David Moyes.
At one stage this season, whispers of a potential quadruple surrounded the Reds, but their hopes of multiple trophies have faded quickly. Arne Slot’s side bowed out of the Champions League before suffering a 2-0 defeat to Newcastle in the League Cup final, leaving the Premier League as their sole focus. Fortunately for Liverpool, their dominance in the EPL remains unquestioned. With a commanding 12-point lead at the top of the table and just nine games remaining, it would take a collapse of extraordinary proportions to deny them the title.
Liverpool’s formidable home record is another reason for confidence heading into the derby. They have won 11 of their 14 league games at Anfield this season, with their only defeat coming against Nottingham Forest back in September. The Reds have also taken 20 points from their last eight league outings, underlining their consistency despite setbacks in other competitions. A victory here would edge them closer to confirming their status as champions.
Everton, meanwhile, make the short trip across Stanley Park to Anfield with a renewed sense of belief. When Moyes returned to Goodison Park, relegation fears were looming large, but the Toffees have since undergone an impressive turnaround. Sitting 15th in the table with 34 points, they are now a comfortable 17 points clear of the drop zone.
Their current form is amongst the best in the league, having gone unbeaten in their last six Premier League outings. However, they enter this clash off the back of four consecutive draws, including a 1-1 stalemate against West Ham last time out. Despite this, Everton have been solid on their travels, collecting eight points from their last four away games (W2, D2). Given Liverpool’s recent struggles in knockout competitions, the Toffees may sense an opportunity to stun their city rivals in what promises to be a fiercely contested derby.
Head-to-Head
Everton are unbeaten in their last two meetings with Liverpool, both of which took place at Goodison Park. Earlier this season, the two sides played out a 2-2 draw, while in this fixture last season, it was Liverpool who triumphed 2-0 at Anfield.
Betting
Liverpool 37/100
Draw 4/1
Everton 15/2
Verdict
Despite recent cup disappointments, Liverpool remain a formidable force at Anfield and are expected to respond accordingly in a derby that has historically favoured them on home soil. Everton’s resurgence under Moyes, particularly their solid away form, suggests they won’t make things easy for their rivals. However, with Liverpool eager to reassert their authority and secure the title in record time, they should edge closer this week with a clinical performance.
Suggested Bet: Result and Totals – Liverpool and Under 2.5 at 5/2
Click here for all the English football action this week
Note: All prices correct at the time of writing but are subject to change
