As the Premier League season nears its conclusion, we dissect three fixtures scheduled for this Sunday and suggest a bet for each one.
Manchester City are now priced as low as 4/10 to successfully defend their title, with Arsenal offered at 22/10, followed by Liverpool at 40/1. The rest are priced at 1000/1 or better.
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AFC BOURNEMOUTH v BRIGHTON– Click here to bet
Bournemouth is mathematically safe from relegation and currently occupies 10th spot on the table. This Sunday, the Cherries will host Brighton at the Vitality Stadium, aiming to improve their form this month after registering 2 wins in their last 5 outings. Bournemouth enter this game off the back of a 1-0 win away to Wolves earlier in the week and will hope to end their campaign in an even more positive manner, knowing this is their penultimate fixture as hosts this season. At home, the Cherries have fared decently, having secured six wins, six draws, and suffered five losses at the Vitality Stadium.
Bournemouth have averaged 1.35 goals per game at home this season, with over 2.5 goals arriving in 58.8% of those encounters (10 out of 17)
Brighton visit Vitality Stadium hoping to end the season strongly after failing to secure a single win in their last five league appearances. Brighton was taught a bit of a footballing lesson in their most recent outing, losing 4-0 at home to Manchester City on Thursday. The Seagulls are currently 11th in the table and face a daunting task, knowing that after Saturday’s clash, the remainder of their season will involve facing opposition from the top half of the table. Away from home, the Seagulls have been somewhat vulnerable, having secured just four wins out of a possible seventeen on their travels.
Brighton have averaged 1.41 goals per game this season away from home, with over 2.5 goals arriving in 64.7% of those encounters (11 out of 17)
Head to Head
Brighton won the reverse fixture 3-1 earlier this season with Brighton winning 2-0 in this fixture last season.
Both teams have shown cracks recently but the Seagulls have a superb head-to-head record over the Cherries having won the last five consecutive encounters between these two. Given the opposition they will have to endure for the remainder of the season, this looks like a game they will target.
Suggested Bet: Draw No Bet, Brighton at 12/10
TOTTENHAM HOTSPUR v ARSENAL– Click here to bet
Tottenham Hotspur currently occupies 5th spot, trailing Aston Villa by 6 points. With two games in hand over the Villains, Spurs have the opportunity to make a real push for that all-important Champions League spot. They’ve looked like a different proposition this season, dare I say much improved since their talismanic leader, Harry Kane, left to join Bayern Munich. This weekend, they will host high-flying Arsenal, relatively fresh after their last league appearance on April 13th, where they lost 3-0 away to Newcastle. At home, Tottenham has been superb, registering twelve wins and four losses to date.
Tottenham Hotspur have averaged 2.12 goals per game at home this season, with over 2.5 goals arriving in 87.5% of those encounters (14 out of 16)
Arsenal enters Tottenham Hotspur Stadium currently topping the log with 77 points. Mikel Arteta can be proud of his side’s efforts, given how things unravelled last season. The Gunners seem to be going from strength to strength this campaign and aim to push defending Champions, Manchester City all the way this time round. Arsenal enters this round off a ruthless display, thrashing Chelsea 5-0 at the Emirates Stadium and securing four wins from five in the month of April. Away from home, Arsenal boasts the best league stats, registering 11 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses to date.
Arsenal have averaged 2.29 goals per game this season away from home, with over 2.5 goals arriving in 52.9% of those encounters (9 out of 17)
Head to Head
The reverse fixture this season resulted in an entertaining 2-2 draw, with Arsenal emerging victorious 2-0 in this fixture last season.
At 5/6 on the outright market, Arsenal looks like the way to go. With five clean sheets out of their last six league appearances, they have tightened up at the back. Despite being at home, the hosts may struggle to get a foothold. The Gunners will be aware that anything less than a win would make it easier for Manchester City to claim the title for the fourth consecutive time.
Suggested Bet: Full Time Result, Arsenal at 5/6
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NOTTINGHAM FOREST v MANCHESTER CITY– Click here to bet
Having breached the Premier League profitability and sustainability rules, Nottingham Forest were deducted four points and now sit dangerously close to the relegation zone, with just 1 point separating them from entering the bottom 3. Last weekend, Nottingham Forest suffered a 2-0 defeat away to Everton, a massive blow that allowed the Toffees to extend their points differential to 7 between the two teams. It has not been a particularly good period for Forest, as they have secured just 1 win in their last 9 league appearances. At home, they have faced an uphill battle, registering 5 wins, 5 draws, and 7 defeats to date, obtaining 20 points from a possible 51 at the City Ground.
Nottingham Forest have averaged 1.47 goals per game at home this season, with over 2.5 goals arriving in 52.9% of those encounters (9 out of 17)
Manchester City is currently 2nd in the table, separated by 1 point and with a game in hand over the league leaders, Arsenal. The Citizens remain in the driving seat, poised to defend their league title. City’s ambitions have narrowed down to two possible trophies this season, with the Premier League and FA Cup still up for grabs. City made light work of their opponents in their most recent league encounter, overpowering the Seagulls 4-0 away from home on Thursday evening. It has been a hectic schedule for the champions, juggling four different fixtures across various competitions within a 12-day period (Premier League, Champions League, and FA Cup commitments), much to the anger and disappointment of Pep Guardiola, who has voiced concerns over player welfare. Away from home, City has been consistently on top of their game, securing 11 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses thus far.
Manchester City have averaged 2.31 goals per game this season away from home, with over 2.5 goals arriving in 75% of those encounters (12 out of 16)
Head to Head
Manchester City won the reverse fixture 2-0 earlier this season, while both teams settled for a 1-1 draw in this fixture last season.
Manchester City will aim to assert their intentions early on to set the tone for the remainder of the game. They have led by half-time in 4 of their last 6 league appearances, and given their expected dominance across all departments this Sunday, they can extend that record to 5 from 7 this Sunday.
Suggested Bet: 1st Half Winner, Manchester City at 8/10
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Note: All prices correct at the time of writing but are subject to change
