English Premier League Betting Preview, Saturday 22 November
We take a look at three fixtures this Saturday in the EPL, starting at Turf Moor where Burnley host a Chelsea side growing in confidence away from home. Later on, Liverpool return to Anfield looking to steady themselves against a Nottingham Forest outfit still searching for their first away win of the campaign. The day rounds off at St James’ Park, where Newcastle United aim to extend their strong home form against a Manchester City side beginning to find their rhythm again. Here are my thoughts along with suggested bets for each.
Before we get into the previews, here’s a quick look at the outright title picture, Arsenal remain clear favourites at 4/5, with Manchester City their nearest challengers at 9/4. Defending champions Liverpool sit at 10/1, while Chelsea are further back at 25/1. The rest of the field is available at 35/1 or higher.
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BURNLEY v CHELSEA – Click here to bet
Saturday’s early afternoon Premier League fixture sees Burnley host Chelsea at Turf Moor, with the Clarets looking to stabilize after a difficult run and the Blues aiming to extend their impressive away momentum. Enzo Maresca’s men have travelled particularly well this season, and with a Champions League meeting against Barcelona looming in midweek, they’ll want to keep things on track domestically before shifting focus back to Europe.
Burnley come into the weekend sitting 17th on 10 points after a narrow 3-2 defeat away to West Ham before the international break. Scott Parker’s side have yet to find real consistency since returning to top flight, having struggled to recreate the sort of success they enjoyed at Turf Moor last season. Still, their home form remains competitive, seven points from a possible fifteen with two wins, a draw, and two defeats. All five of their home league games have produced two goals or less per game, conceding just four at Turf Moor, a sign that their defensive structure is beginning to settle. However, back-to-back league defeats have raised the stakes here, and the Clarets will be keen to avoid consecutive home losses for the first time this season.
Chelsea, meanwhile, arrive in 3rd place on 20 points after a commanding 3-0 win over Wolves in Round 11. Maresca’s side look increasingly assured, and their away form has been a major asset to their progression this campaign. They are unbeaten in their last five matches on the road in all competitions (W4 D1), showing greater balance, control, and defensive discipline away from Stamford Bridge. In the league, the Blues have won their last two away games without conceding, scoring four times across their visits to Nottingham Forest and Spurs. With Barcelona coming to London on Tuesday, rotation may be considered, but Chelsea have looked calm and composed on their travels, traits that should serve them well again here.
Head-to-Head
Chelsea have enjoyed complete dominance at Turf Moor in recent years. They’ve won their last six away matches against Burnley, scoring 21 goals and conceding just four, and have hit four goals on four separate visits during that run. Their most recent meeting ended 2-2 at Stamford Bridge, but at Turf Moor the Blues have been in total control for more than half a decade.
Betting
Burnley 5/1
Draw 7/2
Chelsea 53/100
Verdict
Burnley have shown they can make a game of it at home, but they’re still lacking that bit of quality and consistency needed to really trouble stronger sides at this level. Chelsea, by contrast, look much more assured on their travels, and their strong record at Turf Moor is hard to ignore. With their defensive structure improving and their attacking play starting to come together, they should have enough to come away with another win, even with Europe on the horizon.
Suggested Bet: Chelsea to Win & Under 4.5 Goals at 87/100
LIVERPOOL v NOTTINGHAM FOREST – Click here to bet
Saturday’s late afternoon kick-off sees Liverpool return to Anfield for a crucial Premier League clash against a struggling Nottingham Forest side still searching for their first away win of the campaign. Arne Slot’s men have blown hot and cold this season, but their home form has kept them afloat, and with PSV visiting in the Champions League next week, the Reds will be eager to bank three points before European matters take over.
Liverpool come into the weekend sitting eighth on 18 points after a bruising 3-0 defeat away to Manchester City before the international break. Despite a rocky recent spell that included four straight league losses, the Reds remain strong at Anfield, where they’ve picked up 12 of their 18 points this season, winning four of their five league fixtures there. Slot’s side have tightened things up at home too, conceding just five goals while scoring ten, and arrive on the back of consecutive home victories in all competitions. While their away form continues to lag, just six points from six matches, Liverpool know that another home win here could help them push back towards the top four picture.
Nottingham Forest, meanwhile, remain deep in trouble despite signs of improvement under Sean Dyche. The Tricky Trees sit 19th on nine points but head into the weekend with renewed confidence after a spirited 3-1 win at home to Leeds before the break. Dyche has overseen three league matches since taking over from Ange Postecoglou, collecting four points, and losing just once in five games across all competitions. Their major issue, however, remains their dismal away form. Forest are winless on the road this season, taking only two points from five league trips and scoring just twice while conceding nine. With a Europa League home tie against Malmö looming midweek, Dyche’s side face another demanding stretch as they try to climb out of the bottom three.
Head-to-Head
Forest went unbeaten against Liverpool last season, winning 1-0 at Anfield before drawing 1-1 in the return fixture at the City Ground. That victory at Anfield was their first there since 1969, ending a six-match winning streak for Liverpool in this fixture on Merseyside. Historically, the Reds have dominated this matchup at home, though last season’s upset will give Forest a sliver of optimism.
Betting
Liverpool 11/25
Draw 4/1
Nottingham Forest 11/2
Verdict
Liverpool haven’t quite hit the same level as last season, but Forest’s away form has been even more worrying. Slot’s side are usually dependable at Anfield, and with Forest still chasing their first away win, this feels like a good chance for Liverpool to re-establish themselves after the break. Dyche’s men should make it competitive, but the Reds’ strength at home is likely to shine through in the end.
Suggested Bet: Liverpool to Win & Under 3.5 Goals at 6/4
NEWCASTLE UNITED v MANCHESTER CITY – Click here to bet
Saturday’s early evening kick-off brings us a heavyweight clash at St James’ Park as Newcastle United look to maintain their impressive home form against a Manchester City side beginning to find top gear again. Eddie Howe’s men have been far more convincing on Tyneside than on their travels this season, and with a trip to Marseille in the Champions League on Tuesday, they’ll be eager to take something from this test before attention shifts to Europe.
Newcastle enter the weekend 14th on 12 points after a disappointing 3–1 defeat away to Brentford before the international break. While their league position reflects an inconsistent campaign, their home form tells a different story with five consecutive wins at St James’ Park in all competitions and nine points from a possible fifteen in the league. Defensively, they’ve been sound at home, conceding just six league goals and keeping four clean sheets from their last five appearances in all competitions. With most of their points earned on home soil this season, the Magpies will hope their strong home form continues against a side they’ve struggled to beat in recent years.
Manchester City, meanwhile, arrive in the North East with plenty of momentum behind them after their commanding 3–0 win over defending champions Liverpool before the break. Guardiola’s side sit second on 22 points and continue to set the standard in both boxes, boasting the league’s best attacking return with 23 goals and the second-best defensive record with only eight conceded. Their away form has been solid enough, seven points from five league trips, though their last Premier League outing on the road did end in a 1–0 defeat at Aston Villa. Even so, that result remains their only loss in their last seven away matches in all competitions, and City come into this fixture having been beaten just once in fourteen overall. With Bayer Leverkusen due at the Etihad on Tuesday, managing minutes within the squad will be key, but their depth usually allows them to juggle both fronts without much disruption.
Head-to-Head
Manchester City are unbeaten in their last four meetings against Newcastle in all competitions. Last season brought a 1-1 draw in this fixture at St James’ Park followed by a comprehensive 4-0 win for City at the Etihad.
Betting
Newcastle United 5/2
Draw 11/4
Manchester City 1/1
Verdict
Newcastle have been solid at home and certainly have the quality to cause City some problems, but Guardiola’s side usually deal with this fixture comfortably. They might not have everything their own way, but given their current form and the history between these teams, it’s hard to see them slipping up. It should still be a competitive game, with both sides capable of making an impact in front of goal.
Suggested Bet: Manchester City Double Chance (Win or Draw) & Both Teams to Score at 23/20
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Note: All prices correct at the time of writing but are subject to change
