English Premier League Betting Preview, Saturday 13 September
The English Premier League returns this Saturday after the international break pressed pause on domestic action. With eight fixtures crammed into a single day, fans can look forward to a feast of football. Here are my thoughts, along with suggested bets for each match.
Before diving into Saturday’s fixtures, it’s worth stepping back to look at the bigger picture – the title race. Liverpool remain the bookies favourites at 13/10 as they look to defend their crown, but Arsenal are snapping at their heels at 18/10. Manchester City, usually the ones setting the pace, are surprisingly out at 15/2, while Chelsea sit at 17/2 and shaping up as the potential value pick. Beyond that, it’s longshots galore, with the rest of the pack drifting out to 50/1 or bigger.
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ARSENAL v NOTTINGHAM FOREST – Click here to bet
Arsenal return to the Emirates this Saturday in third place after three rounds with six points from their opening fixtures. The Gunners perfect start ended just before the international break with a narrow 1-0 defeat against Liverpool away at Anfield, a game in which they were competitive but lacked real cutting edge in front of goal. Mikel Arteta will be looking for a swift response at home, where his side collected 11 wins in 19 matches last season, and despite the absence of William Saliba through injury, Arsenal remain one of the toughest defensive units in the league.
Nottingham Forest sit 10th with four points on the board but arrive here on the back of a heavy 3-0 home defeat to West Ham. That result brought an end to Nuno Espírito Santo’s tenure, with Ange Postecoglou now taking charge of the Tricky Trees for the first time. Forest had started the campaign with a win and a draw, but their defensive frailties were ruthlessly exposed by the Hammers. One positive to build on is their away record as last season they were among the league’s best travellers with 10 wins on the road, a trend they’ll be eager to continue under new management.
Head-to-Head
Arsenal have dominated this fixture in the Premier League era, winning four of the last six meetings. Last season, the Gunners eased to a 3-0 victory at the Emirates, while the reverse fixture at the City Ground ended in a goalless draw in February.
Verdict
Forest will make it a physical contest, but with just one goal conceded in the league this season and having kept Forest goalless last season, Arsenal’s home record and attacking depth make a clean-sheet win for the hosts the standout value play.
Suggested Bet: Arsenal to Win to Nil – Yes at 12/10
EVERTON v ASTON VILLA – Click here to bet
Everton enter the weekend in 5th place with six points, enjoying one of their strongest starts to a season in recent years. David Moyes’ return has steadied the ship, and week three’s 3-2 win away to Wolves underlined the attacking verve his side now possesses. While the Toffees home form was often a concern last term at Goodison Park, early momentum has revived belief that the new Hill Dickinson Stadium can quickly become a fortress.
Aston Villa, by contrast, sit 19th with just a single point after three matches. Unai Emery’s side suffered a bruising 3-0 defeat at home to Crystal Palace last time out, raising alarm bells about their defensive organisation and lack of cutting edge in attack. Away form was an issue last season, with nine defeats on the road, and Villa cannot afford another slow start if they wish to challenge for Europe again this season.
Head-to-Head
Aston Villa completed a league double over Everton last season, winning 3-2 at home and 1-0 at Goodison Park.
Verdict
Form points strongly towards Everton, but Villa have held the upper hand in recent meetings. With confidence fragile in the away camp, this one could go down to the wire. That said, I’ll side with the hosts to prevail, but with the added security of a draw no bet to ensure our stake is returned if it ends all square.
Suggested Bet: Draw No Bet – Everton at 8/10
FULHAM v LEEDS UNITED – Click here to bet
Fulham return to Craven Cottage desperate for a response after a poor start that has left them 18th with just two points. Their 2-0 defeat at Stamford Bridge in round 3 highlighted a lack of penetration in attack and defensive frailties against the Premier League’s elite. Marco Silva will be urging his side to rediscover the home form that kept them mid-table last season, but pressure is already building after three winless games.
Leeds United, back in the Premier League under Daniel Farke, have made a steady return. Sitting 12th with four points, the Whites are proving hard to break down, particularly at home, having drawn 0-0 with Newcastle at Elland Road last time out. While their away form in the Championship was impressive as they went unbeaten in 20 matches on the road, Premier League trips have proved more challenging, as shown by their 5-0 defeat to Arsenal in week two.
Head-to-Head
The two clubs last met in the top flight during the 2022/23 season, when Fulham won both fixtures, 3-2 at Elland Road and 2-1 at Craven Cottage.
Verdict
Leeds have settled well on their return to the Premier League and look more organized than a winless Fulham. However, having played only one away game this season and suffering a heavy 5-0 defeat to Arsenal, it’s difficult to fully assess their early-season form. That said, they should give a good account of themselves in West London against a struggling Fulham side, potentially returning home with at least a point.
Suggested Bet: Double Chance – Draw/Leeds United at 8/10
CRYSTAL PALACE v SUNDERLAND – Click here to bet
Crystal Palace return to Selhurst Park in 8th place with five points from their opening three fixtures. The Eagles are buzzing after a stunning 3-0 victory at Villa Park, a result that showcased Oliver Glasner’s high-pressing style and attacking threat from wide areas. Palace were solid at home last term, losing just six times overall, and will be looking to extend their unbeaten start this season with another strong display.
Sunderland, meanwhile, have been one of the stories of the early campaign. The newly promoted Black Cats sit 6th with six points, opening with an impressive 3-0 win against West Ham before suffering a 2-0 defeat away to Burnley, and bouncing back with a gritty 2-1 result over Brentford at the Stadium of Light. Régis Le Bris’ side have shown resilience and belief, though their away form in the Championship last season was mixed. This trip to South London represents their toughest top-flight test yet.
Head-to-Head
This will be the first top-flight meeting between the sides since Sunderland’s relegation in 2017. That season, Palace won 3-2 at the Stadium of Light before losing 4-0 in this fixture at Selhurst Park.
Verdict
Sunderland’s early-season form may be deceptive, boosted by relatively straightforward fixtures at home. Their struggles on the road were exposed in their first away trip, making a positive result this weekend unlikely. Palace look settled and confident under Glasner, and their superior attacking quality should give them the edge.
Suggested Bet: Full Time Result – Crystal Palace at 4/6
NEWCASTLE UNITED v WOLVERHAMPTON WANDERERS – Click here to bet
Newcastle United return to St. James’ Park languishing in 17th place with just two points after three games. Eddie Howe’s Magpies have yet to find their rhythm, with a frustrating 0-0 draw away at Leeds their latest setback. Goals have been hard to come by, with Newcastle firing blanks in two of their three outings so far. With pressure beginning to mount, a first win of the season in front of their home fans would be a timely lift.
Wolverhampton Wanderers, meanwhile, sit rooted to the bottom of the table without a point. Their latest setback, a 3-2 home defeat to Everton, summed up their issues under Vítor Pereira, they can score, but remain defensively fragile. Wolves lost 10 times on their travels last season, and unless they find greater stability, another long campaign at the wrong end of the table beckons.
Head-to-Head
Newcastle have had the upper hand in recent encounters with Wolves, winning their last three consecutive matches against the Midlands side and remaining unbeaten in the last seven meetings between the two. Last season, Newcastle claimed a 2-1 away win before recording a more comprehensive 3-0 victory at St James’ Park in January.
Verdict
Both sides will be desperate for a first win, but Newcastle’s home advantage and strong record against Wolves tilt the scale heavily in their favour. Wolves leaky defence looks set to cost them once again, and Newcastle should find their scoring form as they exploit the travellers vulnerabilities to claim their first win of the season.
Suggested Bet: Result and Totals – Newcastle and Over 2.5 at 23/20
AFC BOURNEMOUTH v BRIGHTON & HOVE ALBION – Click here to bet
Bournemouth welcome Brighton to Vitality Stadium this weekend where the hosts currently occupy 7th place in the early standings with six points from their opening three games. The Cherries impressed in their last outing, stunning Tottenham Hotspur 1-0 at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, a victory that showcased Andoni Iraola’s organized defensive approach and the pace of their counter-attacks. Home form was respectable last season, going unbeaten in twelve matches at the Vitality Stadium, and Bournemouth appear set to be just as competitive this year as they were overall last season.
Brighton, under Fabian Hürzeler, have collected four points from their opening three games and sit 11th in the table. Their standout moment came just before the international break, when they stunned Manchester City 2-1 at the Amex, impressing with their intensity and composure on the South Coast. The Seagulls are yet to pick up a point on the road this season, having lost 2-0 at Everton, but after beating Bournemouth in their previous meeting, they will be confident of competing again. Last season, Brighton were strong away from home, going unbeaten in 13 of 19 league trips, and they will look to replicate that form this term.
Head-to-Head
Brighton completed a league double over Bournemouth last season, winning both fixtures 2-1, at home and away.
Verdict
Brighton arrive on a high after their win over City, while Bournemouth are riding a confidence boost of their own following their North London victory over Spurs. Expect a competitive, entertaining clash, with both teams likely to find the net.
Suggested Bet: Totals and Both Teams to Score – Over 2.5 and Yes at 9/10
WEST HAM v TOTTENHAM HOTSPUR – Click here to bet
West Ham host Tottenham this Saturday at the London Stadium, sitting 16th with three points after a convincing 3-0 win at Nottingham Forest in their latest outing. Graham Potter’s side looked fluid and clinical in that match, easing pressure after back-to-back defeats. However, their home form remains poor, with the Hammers winless in their last six league appearances and already having suffered a home defeat to Chelsea this term. The Irons will be hoping for a far stronger performance when they welcome Spurs this weekend.
Tottenham enter Saturday’s London clash off the back of a surprising 1-0 home loss to Bournemouth on matchday three, having dropped their first points of the campaign. Thomas Frank’s side sit 4th with six points and will be eager to bounce back. The Lilywhites were inconsistent away last term, winning just five of 19 matches, but started this season’s road campaign brightly with a win at Burnley, ending a six-game away winless streak in the EPL. Spurs will look to extend that momentum when they travel to West Ham, a fixture they haven’t won on the road since 2019.
Head-to-Head
Last season, Tottenham won 4-1 at home, while their trip to the London Stadium ended in a 1-1 draw. Spurs are unbeaten in their last three league meetings with West Ham, recording one win and two draws.
Verdict
West Ham showed signs of improvement last weekend, but Spurs remain the stronger side overall. Expect a response from the travelling team as they look to bounce back from their recent defeat. It won’t be easy given their record at the London Stadium, but Tottenham should come away with a positive result, with both teams likely to contribute goals — a trend that has featured in their last three consecutive meetings in this fixture.
Suggested Bet: Double Chance and Both Teams to Score – Draw/Tottenham Hotspur and Yes at 23/20
BRENTFORD v CHELSEA – Click here to bet
The late kick-off sees Brentford return to the Gtech Community Stadium in 15th place with three points from three games. Keith Andrews’ side suffered a 2-1 defeat away to Sunderland last time out, continuing a mixed start. The Bees were strong at home last season, scoring 40 goals, but defensive issues remain a concern in their new campaign, having already conceded five goals across their opening three fixtures, while scoring three, one in each match so far.
Chelsea, meanwhile, are flying high in 2nd place with seven points. Enzo Maresca’s side produced a composed 2-0 victory over Fulham at Stamford Bridge before the break, taking their season tally to seven goals while conceding just once. The Blues look far more organized defensively compared to recent campaigns, while their attack is already showing sharp form. Last season, they opened with three consecutive away wins, and having already secured their first road victory at West Ham, they will now aim to make it two from two as they look to keep pace with early leaders Liverpool.
Head-to-Head
Last season, Chelsea claimed a 2-1 victory in the reverse fixture at Stamford Bridge, while this meeting at the Gtech finished goalless in April, with both sides forced to settle for a point.
Verdict
Brentford are always dangerous at home, but Chelsea look far more balanced and efficient this campaign. It may be early days, yet the Blues have shown clear signs of progress and should be fancied to continue their strong start with another positive result.
Suggested Bet: Full Time Result – Chelsea at 15/20
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Note: All prices correct at the time of writing but are subject to change
