As we head into another weekend of Premier League action, a trio of fixtures once again stand out from a betting perspective. Below are three matches I’ve highlighted for Saturday, complete with recent form, key trends, and where I believe the value lies.
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WOLVERHAMPTON WANDERERS v BRIGHTON – Click here to bet
We begin proceedings at Molineux this weekend where high-flying Wolverhampton Wanderers take on Brighton on Saturday. Having found themselves in the bottom four for much of the campaign under Gary O’Neil, Wolves have enjoyed a remarkable turnaround since Vitor Pereira took charge. Although Brighton sit slightly higher on the table, recent form suggests the hosts are the ones with the upper hand in this encounter.
Wolves are currently 13th in the Premier League standings with 41 points and have picked up six wins from their last seven matches. Their only blemish in that run came in a narrow 1-0 defeat away to Manchester City last weekend. At Molineux, Wolves are unbeaten in their last four (W3, D1), with their last three ending in victory. They’ve scored 26 and conceded 29 goals at home this season, with 11 of their 17 matches producing over 2.5 goals.
Meanwhile, Brighton arrive at Molineux following a 1-1 draw at home against Newcastle. The Seagulls have only managed one win in their last seven Premier League matches (W1, D3, L3), conceding 16 goals in that span. Fabian Hürzeler’s side are currently 10th in the standings with 52 points, just one point behind Bournemouth in the race for a Europa Conference League spot.
They’ve also failed to win any of their last two away games, suffering defeats at Crystal Palace and Brentford. Overall, Brighton have picked up 23 points on the road this season (W6, D5, L6), scoring 30 and conceding 32. Goals have not been in short supply either, with 13 of their 17 away games finishing with three or more.
Head-to-Head
These sides played out an entertaining 2-2 draw at the Amex earlier this season, while Brighton romped to a 4-1 victory at Molineux in this fixture last season.
Betting
Wolverhampton Wanderers – 7/4
Draw – 26/10
Brighton – 31/20
Verdict
Wolves come into this in strong form, especially at home, while Brighton continue to leak goals and struggle for consistency. With both sides regularly involved in high-scoring matches, goals are to be expected.
Suggested Bet: Over 2.5 goals @ 8/11
SOUTHAMPTON v MANCHESTER CITY – Click here to bet
Southampton’s return to the Premier League has been nothing short of disastrous, and they’ll be counting down the days until the season comes to a merciful end. Last weekend’s 2-0 defeat at the hands of fellow relegation strugglers Leicester City summed up their miserable campaign, which has yielded just 11 points and left them rooted to the bottom of the table.
Simon Rusk’s side have lost nine of their last eleven league outings, with only two draws in that run, and things are unlikely to improve with Manchester City arriving at St Mary’s. The Saints have won just once at home all season (W1, D2, L14), scoring 12 and conceding 45 goals in the process. Seven of their last eight home league games have produced three goals or more.
As for Manchester City, while their title defence hasn’t gone to plan, Pep Guardiola’s men are still well in the hunt for a top-two finish and will see this as a must-win. Currently 3rd with 64 points, City are just three points behind Arsenal and come into this fixture having won five straight in all competitions. They edged Wolves 1-0 last Friday and have looked more solid defensively of late.
Away from home, City have claimed 25 points (W7, D4, L6), scoring 27 and conceding 21. They are unbeaten in their last two on the road and have kept three clean sheets in three of their last four league away games. Notably, all four of those games have featured two goals or fewer.
Head-to-Head
Manchester City edged Southampton 1-0 in the reverse fixture earlier this season, following up on their commanding 4-1 victory at St Mary’s during the 2022/23 campaign
Betting
Southampton – 11/1
Draw – 13/2
Manchester City – 2/9
Verdict
Given Southampton’s poor home form and lack of resistance, City should find this another manageable assignment. While they’ve been more efficient than explosive on the road, I expect a clinical and composed display from the visitors once again.
Suggested Bet: Manchester City to win to nil @ 23/20
BOURNEMOUTH v ASTON VILLA – Click here to bet
This Saturday, Bournemouth host Aston Villa at the Vitality Stadium in a key clash in the battle for European places next season. The Cherries currently sit 8th in the standings with 53 points and will be desperate to hold onto the final Europa Conference League qualification spot with just three games left to play.
Andoni Iraola’s side pulled off a shock 2-1 win away to Arsenal last weekend, extending their unbeaten run to five matches (W2, D3). However, defensive frailties persist, with just two clean sheets kept in their last 12 league outings, while both teams have scored in eight of those matches. At home, Bournemouth have registered seven wins, four draws, and six defeats (25 points total), scoring just 21 and conceding only 15. Eleven of their 17 home matches have featured two goals or fewer.
Villa, on the other hand, are pushing hard for a Champions League place. After their 1-0 win over Fulham, Unai Emery’s men now sit 7th with 60 points, just three points adrift of the top four. The Villans have won six of their last seven league matches, with their only loss coming against Manchester City during that stretch.
Away from home, Villa have collected 23 points (W7, D2, L8), but their defence has been leaky with 29 goals conceded and 23 scored – a goal difference of -6. Villa’s away fixtures have been among the league’s most entertaining, with 13 of their 17 away games featuring three goals or more this season.
Head-to-Head
The reverse fixture ended 1-1 earlier this season, while last season’s clash at the Vitality ended in an exciting 2-2 draw.
Betting
Bournemouth – 29/20
Draw – 27/10
Aston Villa – 7/4
Verdict
With both sides pushing for European qualification and Aston Villa showing defensive frailties on their travels, this clash has the potential to deliver goals. The draw is certainly a tempting outcome considering the stakes and recent meetings, but I’ll be leaning toward a goal-heavy affair instead.
Suggested Bet: Totals and Both Teams to Score – Over 2.5 and Yes at 8/10
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Note: All prices correct at the time of writing but are subject to change
