With the season rapidly drawing to a close, Friday’s Premier League double-header offers two key matchups that blend domestic stakes with European distractions. Both Chelsea and Aston Villa remain firmly in the hunt for Champions League qualification, while their opponents — Manchester United and Tottenham — have one eye on upcoming European finals. Below are my thoughts, along with suggested bets for each match.
With just a few rounds remaining, the season may be winding down, but there’s still plenty of betting interest on offer — from teams chasing a Top 4 finish or aiming to cement a spot in the top half, to individual honours like Top Goalkeeper. For more options including outrights and end-of-season specials, check out the link below.
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ASTON VILLA v TOTTENHAM HOTSPUR – Click here to bet
Originally slated for Sunday, this fixture at Villa Park has been brought forward to Friday to accommodate Tottenham’s appearance in the Europa League final against Manchester United next Wednesday.
Aston Villa kept their Champions League qualification hopes alive with a narrow 1-0 win away to Bournemouth last weekend. That result keeps Unai Emery’s men in 6th place on 63 points, just two behind fourth-placed Manchester City with two games to play. The Villans will need results elsewhere to go their way, but they’ll know nothing short of three points here will keep the pressure on.
Villa come into this match in excellent domestic form, having claimed 24 points from their last 10 league games (W8, L2). Their impressive run includes victories over top-half opposition, and they’ve shown real consistency both home and away.
Villa Park has been a fortress all season. Emery’s side have suffered just one defeat at home, collecting 37 points from 18 matches (W10, D7, L1), scoring 32 goals and conceding only 20. Their home games tend to be open affairs too — 11 of the 18 have featured at least three goals, while 9 of their last 10 league fixtures at home have seen both teams score.
Tottenham, by contrast, arrive in Birmingham with little to play for domestically. Postecoglou’s side are 17th in the table on 38 points — mathematically safe from relegation, but with all eyes firmly set on next week’s European final. It’s likely Spurs will rotate their squad, preserving key players for their meeting with Manchester United.
They’re coming off a disappointing 2-0 home defeat to Crystal Palace, a game in which the manager already made several changes to the starting lineup. That approach could be repeated on Friday. Away from home, Spurs have struggled all season — their 18 away matches have yielded just 17 points (W5, D2, L11), with 29 goals scored and 28 conceded. Notably, 10 of those 18 have featured over 2.5 goals, underlining their vulnerability on the road.
Head-to-Head
Spurs won the reverse league fixture in North London 4-1 earlier this season, but Villa got their revenge in the FA Cup, beating Tottenham 2-1 at Villa Park in the fourth round. Last season’s league encounter at Villa Park ended in a 4-0 win for the visitors, but the balance of power appears to have shifted more recently.
Betting
Aston Villa 4/10
Draw 9/2
Tottenham Hotspur 6/1
Verdict
With Aston Villa in excellent form and still chasing Champions League qualification, this match holds major significance for the hosts. In contrast, Tottenham’s domestic campaign is all but over, and they’ll have one eye firmly on next week’s Europa League final. Squad rotation, poor away form, and a lack of motivation could see them outclassed at Villa Park.
Suggested Bet: Handicap – Aston Villa -1.5 at 19/20
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CHELSEA v MANCHESTER UNITED – Click here to bet
With the FA Cup schedule affecting this weekend’s Premier League lineup and Manchester United gearing up for next Wednesday’s Europa League final, this clash at Stamford Bridge takes centre stage on Friday night.
Chelsea return home after a 2-0 defeat away to Newcastle last weekend, a result that brought an end to their five-match winning streak across all competitions. Enzo Maresca’s men still have a European final of their own to prepare for — the Europa Conference League decider against Real Betis — but with that fixture set for the following week, the Blues are expected to name a strong side here with a Champions League place still on the line.
Currently 5th in the standings with 63 points, Chelsea are ahead of Aston Villa on goal difference and know a slip-up here could also potentially open the door for 7th-placed Nottingham Forest to close the gap. With everything to play for and a relatively favourable schedule, the hosts will be fully focused on collecting all three points.
At Stamford Bridge, Chelsea have been excellent all season, losing just twice in the league. They’ve claimed 11 wins and five draws from their 18 home outings, scoring 34 goals and conceding 18. Maresca’s side are unbeaten in their last nine Premier League games on home soil (W8, D1), keeping four clean sheets in their last six.
Manchester United, meanwhile, arrive in London with little to show for their domestic campaign. Sitting 16th with 39 points, the Red Devils will likely treat this fixture as more of a distraction than a priority ahead of next week’s Europa League showdown. Given their league form and position, their season hinges entirely on what happens in Europe.
They’re coming off a 2-0 loss at home to West Ham, marking their 17th defeat in the league — a damning statistic that reflects the struggles under Ruben Amorim. Momentum may be the only thing at stake here, though even that appears elusive.
United have been dismal on the road all season, winning just four of their 18 away matches (W4, D6, L8). They’ve managed 21 goals in those outings while conceding 25. Worryingly, they’ve picked up just one point from their last four away games (D1, L3), with their last win on the road in the league dating back to March.
Head-to-Head
The reverse fixture at Old Trafford ended in a 1-1 stalemate earlier this season. Last season’s meeting at Stamford Bridge produced fireworks, with Chelsea running out 4-3 winners in a dramatic seven-goal contest.
Betting
Chelsea 37/100
Draw 9/2
Manchester United 13/2
Verdict
With Champions League football still within reach, Chelsea will treat this as a must-win fixture and are likely to dominate a United side with one eye firmly on their European final. The Blues have been in commanding form at home, while the Red Devils look set to rotate heavily with nothing left to gain in the league. All signs point to a routine win for the hosts.
Suggested Bet: Handicap – Chelsea -1.5 at 1/1
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Note: All prices correct at the time of writing but are subject to change
