The Seagulls host the Citizens this Thursday, hoping to upset the establishment at the top and to halt City’s run to another title. With just one fixture taking place on the day, both teams take centre stage, and we suggest a bet on the outcome of this crucial league encounter.
Before we proceed, let’s take a look at the outright markets for the English Premier League following this weekend’s results. Title favourites Manchester City are currently priced at 5/10, with Arsenal on offer at 33/10, followed by Liverpool at 5/1. The rest are priced at 1000/1 or better.
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BRIGHTON v MANCHESTER CITY– Click here to bet
Brighton last featured in the Premier League on the 13th of April and will undoubtedly be the fresher of the two teams going into this encounter. The Seagulls are currently placed mid-table in 10th position and will host Manchester City off the back of a 1-1 draw away to Burnley. Having last tasted success on the 10th of March, Brighton will be keen to return to winning ways, having obtained just two points from their last four league appearances. At home, Brighton have been a very difficult team to contend with, boasting the 9th best record as hosts, with seven wins, six draws, and just two defeats at the Amex Stadium.
Brighton have averaged 1.86 goals per game at home this season, with over 2.5 goals arriving in 60% of those encounters (9 out of 15)
Manchester City visit the Amex Stadium having secured their place in this season’s FA Cup final over the weekend. The Citizens left it late, needing an 84th-minute goal from Bernardo Silva to secure their place at Wembley after a hard-fought 1-0 win over Chelsea. Despite Guardiola’s dissatisfaction with the FA over fixture congestion, reflected in their gruelling schedule, the double remains a possibility for City, leaving plenty yet to achieve for Guardiola and his team this season. Another quick turnaround is required as they will play on Thursday and again on Sunday. Away from home, Manchester City boast the second-best record, registering ten wins, two draws, and three losses to date.
Manchester City have averaged 2.2 goals per game this season away from home, with over 2.5 goals arriving in 73.3% of those encounters (11 out of 15)
Head to Head
Manchester City won the reverse fixture 2-1, while both teams settled for a 1-1 draw in this fixture last season.
Betting
Brighton 11/2
Draw 4/1
Manchester City 9/20
Verdict
At 9/20, Manchester City are resounding favourites going into this encounter. With the Seagulls struggling of late, it comes as no surprise that the visitors are priced accordingly. That being said, at that price, the outright bet does seem a bit slim. Therefore, in an attempt to find value, we will look elsewhere
With Manchester City having kept only two clean sheets away from home this season, perhaps it’s an angle we can work with. Brighton may not be in the best of form, but they have been a very decent side at home this season, failing to score only on one occasion at the Amex Stadium.
It’s unlikely that the visitors will run away with it, and Brighton will be difficult to break down. While I fancy City to win, I can see both teams finding the net, with the Citizens scraping by with three vital points.
Suggested Bet: Winning Margin, Manchester City by 1 at 29/10
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Note: All prices correct at the time of writing but are subject to change
