We look at the two EFL Cup semi-final first-leg matches taking place on Tuesday and Wednesday and suggest a bet in each game.
Let’s start with a look at the Outright Betting where Manchester City are favourites at 2.50, followed by Arsenal at 2.60 with Chelsea priced at 5.50 and Newcastle United available at 7.50.
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TUESDAY
NEWCASTLE UNITED vs MANCHESTER CITY
Newcastle United have enjoyed a strong run in the EFL Cup and will be confident playing the first leg at St James’ Park. The side booked their place in the semi-finals with a 2-1 home win over Fulham in the quarter-finals. That result followed a solid 2-0 victory against Tottenham and a dominant 4-1 opening success over Bradford City earlier in the competition.
Newcastle have looked sharp going forward while maintaining a good defensive structure in the tournament. Notably their form has been solid across all competitions, winning their last four games in a row.
Manchester City’s route to the last four has been smooth and controlled. The team reached the semi-finals after recording a 2-0 home win over Brentford in the quarter-finals. Prior to that, City produced a comfortable 3-1 away victory against Swansea after seeing off Huddersfield with a 2-0 win on the road to start the campaign.
City have conceded just one goal in the competition and have rarely looked troubled. In terms of overall form, they have not lost a game since November last year and recently hammered Exeter 10-1 in the FA Cup.
Head-to-Head
The last time these two sides met was earlier this season in the Premier League where Newcastle edged the contest 2-1 at home. Prior to that they met twice in their 24/25 campaigns where the first match was drawn 1-1 and the reverse leg hosted by City saw them claim a 4-0 triumph.
Betting – Click here to bet
Newcastle United 3.15
Draw 3.65
Manchester City 2.15
Verdict
Newcastle will fancy their chances at home and have a decent recent record against City. City though are in excellent form and I am predicting an exciting but tight game with the scores level after 90 minutes, a result which would please City who are at home in the 2nd leg but also wouldn’t be a disaster for Newcastle.
BET: The Draw at 3.65
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WEDNESDAY
CHELSEA vs ARSENAL
Chelsea have taken an entertaining route to the semi-finals and have been involved in several high-scoring, competitive matches in the EFL Cup. The Blues enter this game after a convincing 3-1 away win over Cardiff in the quarter-finals. That followed a narrow 4-3 victory away at Wolves and an earlier 2-1 success against Lincoln City in their first clash.
Chelsea have looked dangerous on attack but have shown some defensive fragility along the way. Their league performances have been inconsistent and they have been unable to claim a win across their last five matches in all comeptitions.
Arsenal’s run to the semi-finals has been built on control and defensive solidity. They booked their place in the last four with a 2-1 home win over Crystal Palace in the quarter-finals, this result came after a thrilling penalty shootout which they won 8-7. Before that, they claimed a comfortable 2-0 victory over Brighton and a 2-0 away win against Port Vale.
Arsenal have let just one goal past the keeper in the competition and have managed games well throughout. Across all competitions they have been performing well and are unbeaten in their last nine trips to the pitch.
Head-to-Head
These teams last went head-to-head in November where the game ended in a 1-1 stalemate on Chelsea soil. The previous season they clashed twice and after a 1-1 draw in 2024, Arsenal came out on top to win the second fixture 1-0 at home.
Betting – Click here to bet
Chelsea 3.25
Draw 3.40
Arsenal 2.20
Verdict
I believe that Chelsea’s attacking threat will test Arsenal but the visitors’ defensive discipline and game management should limit the hosts. I am expecting a closely fought contest similar to their recent meetings and contrary to previous Chelsea games in this competition I think goals could be at a premium and will back Arsenal to shade it.
BET: Result and Totals – Arsenal and Under 2.5 Goals at 5.50
Note: All prices were correct at the time of writing but are subject to change.
