It is derby weekend once again for the South African sides as the Lions host the Stormers at Ellis Park, followed by the Vodacom Bulls taking on the Sharks at Loftus Versfeld. We will take a look at the two matches from a betting angle and offer suggested bets for consideration.
Lions v Stormers – Click here to bet
The Lions head into this weekend in decent form. Their last outing saw them claim a solid 34–22 victory over the Sharks in Johannesburg, which was a welcome response after a heavy 52–17 defeat to the Bulls in their previous match. Before that they had drawn back-to-back matches, finishing 24–24 against the Ospreys and 20–20 against USA Perpignan. Two wins from their last five across all competitions tells a story of a Lions side that is capable on their day but inconsistent.
The Stormers have endured a difficult run of late after what had been a brilliant start to their season. They have now lost three of their last five matches, including back-to-back defeats to the Sharks. The Sharks beat them 19–30 in Cape Town and then again 24–36 the following week. Prior to that they did pick up a 39–26 Champions Cup win over Leicester Tigers, but a 61–10 thrashing away to Harlequins highlighted their inconsistency in Europe.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record between these sides favours the Stormers, who have won four of the last five meetings. Their most recent clash saw the Stormers claim a 34–27 away win in December, while the last time the two sides met at Ellis Park the Lions won 30–23. Prior to that the Stormers won consecutive meetings 29–10 and 29–24.
Betting
The Stormers are favourites heading into this match, trading at 1.54 for the win. The Lions are priced at 2.80, while the draw is currently available at 23.00.
Handicap: Lions [+5.5]
Verdict
Despite the Stormers strong head-to-head record in this fixture, they come into this weekend in poor form, having lost three of their last five and back-to-back matches against the Sharks. The Lions, on the other hand, are coming off a confidence-boosting derby win and will have the home crowd behind them. Ellis Park is a tough place to visit, and I think we could see the Lions cause an upset here. The Stormers are underperforming at the moment, and this feels like a match where the home side have a real chance.
Suggested Bet: Lions to win at 2.80
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Vodacom Bulls v Sharks – Click here to bet
The Bulls come into this fixture in excellent form, having won three of their last five matches. Their most impressive performance came against the Lions three weeks ago, when they ran out convincing 52–17 winners. Their two matches before that saw then get a tight 19–17 win over Edinburgh and a 26–24 victory away to Section Paloise in the Champions Cup. Their only recent blemish was a heavy 49–61 home loss to Bristol in Europe, though they did also lose 8–13 to the Stormers at the start of January.
The Sharks head to Loftus off the back of a disappointing 22–34 defeat to the Lions last weekend, which ended a run of three consecutive wins. Before that loss they had been in fine form, beating the Stormers twice in succession, 30–19 and 36–24, as well as a dominant 50–12 Champions Cup win over Clermont. A loss to Sale Sharks in Europe was their only other defeat in that period.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record in URC matches between the two sides has been competitive in recent seasons. The Sharks won the most recent meeting 21–12 in December, while the Bulls won 25–13 in June. The Sharks also won 29–19 back in February last year, and 20–17 in December 2024. Notably however, the Bulls produced a dominant 64–0 Currie Cup victory over the Sharks in August, showing the gulf that can exist when the Bulls are at their best.
Betting
The Bulls are heavy favourites at home, trading at 1.16 for the win. The Sharks are priced at 6.00, while the draw sits at 31.00.
Handicap: Bulls [-11.5]
Verdict
The Bulls are in strong form, playing at home, and the odds clearly reflect that. However, 1.16 is very short and the Sharks have shown they are capable of beating the Bulls in URC rugby in recent seasons, winning three of the last four URC meetings between the sides. The Sharks are coming off a loss but before that they were playing some of their best rugby of the season. At 6.00 the Sharks look like a value play, but for the safer bet, backing the Sharks to keep the margin close looks the smarter option.
Suggested Bet: Handicap, Sharks [+11.5] at 1.95.
Click here for betting on all the weekend’s URC matches
Note: All prices correct at the time of writing but are subject to change
