We take a look at the 5 Super Rugby matches taking place this weekend and suggest a bet in each game.
First let’s take a look at the Outright Betting where the Chiefs remain the favourites to win the Super Rugby at 2.50 with the Blues and Crusaders both in second spot trading at 4.50 followed by the Brumbies at 8.00. The rest of the teams are 12.00 and greater.
Click here for Super Rugby Outright betting
FRIDAY
MOANA PASIFIKA vs CHIEFS – Click here to bet
Moana Pasifika are bottom of the table with 1 win and 3 losses in their 4 matches. Their victory came in their last start two weeks ago when they beat the Hurricanes 40-31 at home.
The Chiefs are top of the table, but suffered their first defeat two weeks ago when they went down 28-24 to the Drua. They bounced back with a narrow 32-31 win over the Blues last week.
Betting and Verdict
Handicap: Moana Pasifika [+17.5]
Moana Pasifika trade at 8.00 Chiefs 1.12 and the draw 41.00
Money has come for the Chiefs this week and they are now 17 point favourites having started as 12 point favourites.
Pasifika are much improved this season and while I see a comfortable Chiefs win, I think this could be a tighter game than the bookies are projecting and I am going to go low on Total Points.
BET: Under 17.5 points at 1.90
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SATURDAY
HIGHLANDERS vs REDS – Click here to bet
The Highlanders trade at 1.57 with the Reds 2.70 and the draw 26.00.
The Highlanders are currently 6th on the log with 2 wins and 2 losses in their 4 matches. Last time out they were at home to the Hurricanes where they lost by 2 points, failing to capitalise on opportunities in the last 10 minutes.
The Reds have also played 4 games and they are 4th on the table with 3 wins and 1 loss. Their last game was a 20 point win over the Waratahs at home last week.
Head-to-Head
The Reds beat the Highlanders 31-0 at home last season, but last time the Highlanders hosted the Reds they won 35-30.
Betting and Verdict
Handicap: Highlanders [-4.5]
I am a bit surprised to see the money is coming for the Highlanders and I think the Reds can push them and score 26 or more in the process.
BET: Reds over 25.5 points at 1.90
BLUES vs CRUSADERS – Click here to bet
The Blues are currently 9th on the log and sitting outside the playoff position. They have won 1 and lost 4 of their 5 matches and last week were beaten 32-31 away at the Chiefs and they have had home defeat to the Chiefs and the Brumbies this season.
The Crusaders are 2nd on the log with 3 wins and 1 loss in their 4 matches. They were too strong for the Force last week winning 55-33, a game where they recovered from a slow start.
Head-to-Head
These sides met twice last season with the Crusaders winning 29-27 at home and the Blues 26-6 when they hosted.
Betting and Verdict
Handicap: Blues [-0.5]
Blues trade at 1.91 with the Crusaders 2.10 and the draw 26.00
The betting suggests a tight game and I am backing the Blues to scrape a narrow win.
BET: Blues, Winning Margin by 1-7 points inclusive and 4.00
WARATAHS vs BRUMBIES – Click here to bet
The Waratahs are currently 5th on the log with 3 victories and 1 loss in their 4 starts. That loss came last time out when they were beaten by 20 points away at the Reds in Week 5.
The Brumbies are 3rd on the table with 3 wins and 2 losses in their 5 games and they are coming off a 38-21 home win over the Drua. Their last away game was a 21-20 win in Auckland against the Blues.
Head-to-Head
The Brumbies have an excellent record in Sydney and have won their last 8 matches away to the Waratahs.
Betting and Verdict
Handicap: Waratahs [+5.5]
Waratahs trade at 2.90 with the Brumbies 1.50 and the draw 26.00.
I think the Waratahs were flattered by some of their early matches and the Brumbies can win this one by 6 points or more.
BET: Handicap, Brumbies [-5.5] at 1.90
SUNDAY
WESTERN FORCE vs FIJIAN DRUA – Click here to bet
The Force are currently 8th on the log with 2 wins and 3 losses in their 5 matches. They were away to the Crusaders last week where they lost by 22 points. At home this season they lost by 4 points to the Reds and beat Pasifika by a point in an 89 point thriller.
The Drua currently sit 10th on the table with 1 win and 4 defeats in their 5 matches. Last week they lost by 17 points to the Brumbies on the road and they have lost all 3 away matches this season although against the Waratahs and Hurricanes they ended losing both by a point.
Head-to-Head
The Force beat the Drua 48-10 at home last season and the season before they had won by 20 points in Perth.
Betting and Verdict
Handicap: Western Force [-4.5]
Western force trade at 1.57 with Fijian Drua 2.70 and the draw 29.00
The points line is set high here at 61.5, but the way the Drua play their rugby I am not convinced it is going to be high enough.
BET: Over 61.5 points at 1.90
Click here for betting on all the weekend’s rugby action
Note: All prices correct at the time of writing but are subject to change
