Week 15 marks the penultimate round of the 2025 Super Rugby group stage, concluding with two matches on Saturday, 24 May. We’ll take a look at both fixtures from a betting angle and highlight a few picks for your consideration.
Starting with the outright betting, the Chiefs lead the market as narrow favourites at 2.30, followed closely by the Crusaders at 2.88. The Brumbies are available at 7.50, with odds of 9.50 and upwards available on the rest of the field.
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CHIEFS vs MOANA PASIFIKA – Click here to bet
The Chiefs have enjoyed an outstanding campaign in the 2025 Super Rugby season, but they now find themselves in second place on the log, trailing the Brumbies by two points but with a game in hand. After 12 matches, the Chiefs boast 9 wins and 3 losses.
They had a bye in Round 14, but in their previous outing, they delivered a commanding performance on the road, defeating the Crusaders 35-19 in what was a statement win.
Moana Pasifika, meanwhile, have shown remarkable improvement compared to previous seasons. They currently sit sixth on the table in the final playoff spot, having won and lost 6 matches apiece from their 12 fixtures.
Their most recent match was a tense affair against the Blues, where they held firm in the dying moments to secure a hard-fought 27-21 victory at home—turning the ball over on their own try line to seal the result.
Head-to-Head
These two sides have faced each other six times in their history, with the Chiefs emerging victorious on every occasion. Their most recent encounter came in March, where the Chiefs delivered a powerful performance to overcome a spirited Moana Pasifika outfit, winning 50-35 away from home.
Betting and Verdict
The Chiefs head into this game as heavy favourites priced at 1.11 with Moana Pasifika at 9.00 and the draw 51.00.
Handicap: Chiefs [-18.5]
The Chiefs will be targeting a bonus point win in their battle with the Crusaders and Reds to secure top spot and I think they will restrict Moana to 3 tries or less.
BET: Moana Pasifika Points under 22.5 at 1.90
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WESTERN FORCE vs WARATAHS – Click here to bet
The Western Force have struggled to execute in key moments throughout their 13 matches this season, leaving them in 9th place on the standings after Round 14. With just 4 wins, 8 losses, and 1 draw to their name, their inconsistency has cost them valuable points and they can no longer make the playoffs.
Last weekend, they travelled to Fiji (with a few players missing) where they were comprehensively beaten 38-7 by a fired-up Fijian Drua side in front of a passionate home crowd.
The NSW Waratahs head into Round 15 sitting 8th on the table, six points adrift of the Blues in 7th. They’ve managed 5 wins from their 12 matches, but their 7 defeats highlight the team’s inconsistency throughout the campaign. If they can win their last 2 games (next week they are in Auckland against the Blues) then they should make the playoffs.
Their most recent outing was a tough home fixture against the Crusaders, where they pushed hard but ultimately went down by 15 points.
Head-to-Head:
The Waratahs have dominated this fixture in recent years, winning 4 of their last 5 meetings with the Force. Their most recent clash came in March, when the Waratahs secured a convincing 34-10 victory on home soil.
Betting and Verdict
The Western Force trade at 1.72 to win with the Waratahs at 2.40 and the draw 26.00.
Handicap: Western Force [-2.5]
This looks like being a tight game and I think we will get 55 points or less in the game a bet that would have landed in 4 of the last 5 meetings between the sides.
BET: Under 55.5 points at 1.91
Note: All prices correct at the time of writing but are subject to change
