We’ve now reached the Qualifying Finals stage of the 2025 Super Rugby Tournament, where the top six teams go head-to-head this weekend for a place in the Semi-Finals. The three winners will secure their spots in the next round, while the fourth Semi-Final berth will be awarded to the highest-ranked losing team from this weekend’s clashes.
Below, we look at each matchup from a betting perspective, with a few suggested bets along the way.
Let’s start with the Outright Winner betting where Chiefs are slight favourites trading at 2.40 closely followed by the Crusaders at 3.00 with the Brumbies and Hurricanes both priced at 9.00. You can get 10.00 for the Blues and 19.00 for the Reds.
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FRIDAY
CRUSADERS vs REDS – Click here to bet
The Crusaders can be proud of their regular season, securing 11 wins from 14 matches and finishing 2nd on the log, just two points behind the Chiefs. Their final outing in Round 16 saw them edge the Brumbies in a thrilling contest, winning 33-31 away from home.
The Reds, on the other hand, have struggled for consistency. They finished 5th overall with 8 wins and 6 losses. They’ll need to be at their absolute best to pull off an upset this weekend. Their most recent match was a resounding 52-7 victory over Fijian Drua, delivering a strong statement in front of their home fans.
Head-to-Head
The Crusaders have dominated this matchup in recent years, winning 4 of the last 5 encounters. Their most recent meeting was in March, when the Crusaders thrashed the Reds 43-19 at home.
Betting and Verdict
- Crusaders: 1.18
- Reds: 6.00
- Draw: 41.00
- Handicap: Crusaders [-13.5]
I expect the Crusaders will be too strong at home but the Reds are a side capable of pushing the top New Zealand sides and I think they will force the Crusaders to dig deep for a narrow win.
BET: Winning Margin: Crusaders by under 12.5 points at 2.60
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SATURDAY
CHIEFS vs BLUES – Click here to bet
The Chiefs delivered a well-rounded campaign in 2025, winning 11 of their 14 matches and claiming 7 bonus points, which helped them finish top of the table. Their consistency and ability to execute under pressure earned them a commanding +231 points difference. In the final round of the group stage, they defeated the Highlanders 41-24 on the road.
The Blues, meanwhile, staged a strong comeback in the second half of the season to grab the 6th and final playoff spot. They ended with 6 wins and 8 losses, but it was their tournament-high 9 bonus points that proved crucial in keeping their campaign alive. They sent a strong message last weekend, hammering the Waratahs 46-6 at home.
Head-to-Head
This is a close rivalry. In their last five encounters, the Chiefs lead 3–2. The most recent meeting came in March, where the Chiefs edged a nail-biting 32-31 victory on home turf.
Betting and Verdict
- Chiefs: 1.36
- Blues: 3.75
- Draw: 29.00
Handicap: Chiefs [-8.5]
The Chiefs must feel hard done by that their reward for top spot was a playoff against a resurgent Blues team. They are at least guaranteed a home semi-final even if they lose.
They have been the standout side all season though and one again I am looking for a tight match edged by the home team.
BET: Winning Margin: Chiefs by under 12.5 points at around 14/10 – prices will be up closer to matchday.
BRUMBIES vs HURRICANES – Click here to bet
The Brumbies enter the playoffs having finished 3rd on the log, winning 9 and losing 5 matches. Their consistency, backed by 8 bonus points and a +87 points difference, helped them finish 5 points ahead of the Hurricanes. In their final group match, they narrowly lost 33-31 to the Crusaders at home.
The Hurricanes staged a strong comeback this season, rising to 4th place after a campaign that included 8 wins, 1 draw, and 5 losses. They finished just 1 point ahead of the Reds on the table. Their final group-stage fixture saw them crush Moana Pasifika 64-12 in Wellington.
Head-to-Head
These sides have met five times since 2022, with the Brumbies holding a 3–2 edge. Their most recent clash came in April, when the Hurricanes edged the Brumbies 35-29 away from home.
Betting and Verdict
Brumbies: 1.91
Hurricanes: 2.10
Draw: 26.00
Handicap: Brumbies [-0.5]
This game could well be as close as the betting suggests and I think that being so tight the under 54.5 total points is the play.
BET: Under 54.5 points at 1.90
Note: All prices correct at the time of writing but are subject to change
