The final round of the Super Rugby regular season takes place this weekend and we take a look at all 6 games from a betting angle.
Let’s start as we usually do with a look at the Super Rugby Pacific Outright Betting where the Chiefs are trading at 23/20 favourites ahead of the Crusaders at 21/10. You can get 7/2 the Blues and 10/1 the Brumbies with the Hurricanes 12/1 and 80/1 and better the balance.
Click here for the latest Super Rugby Pacific Outright Betting
FRIDAY
Blues v Highlanders – Click here to bet
The Blues are currently 3rd on the log with 9 wins and 4 losses in their 13 matches. A win here should be enough to ensure they finish 3rd on the log. The Blues were too strong for the Hurricanes at home last week winning 36-25 and the week before that they had beaten the Reds 45-26 on the road.
The Highlanders are currently in 8th spot which is the final playoff position, but they have 3 teams breathing down their neck. They got a much needed win at home to the Reds last week winning with a 35-30 victory and the week before that they had edged the Rebels 20-17 also at home. The Highlanders played the Blues in Week 1 of Super Rugby losing by 40 points at home.
Handicap: Blues +15.5
Both of these teams will be highly motivated to win this game and I actually think we could have quite a stalemate at times and I am going to go with under 60.5 points as my bet:
Suggested Bet: Under 60.5 points at 9/10
Brumbies v Rebels – Click here to bet
The Brumbies are 4th on the log and they could finish as high as 3rd if the Blues lose and they need 2 points in the game to guarantee 4th spot.
The Rebels are 11th on the log, but they are still in the playoff race although will need other results to go their way.
Last week the Brumbies went down by 10 points to the Chiefs at home and the Rebels were too strong for the Force winning Chiefs at home 52-14 in Melbourne.
The Rebels and the Brumbies met in Melbourne in Week 11 with the Brumbies coming out on top 33-26.
Handicap: Brumbies -10.5
Of the two sides I feel the Rebels have slightly more to play for and despite their lowly position on the table they have beaten plenty of handicaps this season.
Suggested Bet: Handicap, Rebels +10.5 at 19/20
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SATURDAY
Fijian Drua v Reds – Click here to bet
This is a critical match as far as playoff spots goes as the Drua currently sit 10th on 21 points, 3 points behind the Reds who sit 7th on 24 points.
The Drua beat Moana Pasifika 47-46 at home in a game in where defence was optional last week and the Reds put up a brave fight away to the Highlanders before going down to a last minute try to lose 35-30. The Reds hosted the Drua back in Week 4 winning 27-24.
Handicap: Fijian Drua +2.5
The weather doesn’t look for this one and the Reds will be quite happy if it is a tight game. I am going for 52 points or less in this one.
Suggested Bet: Under 52.5 points at 10/11
Hurricanes v Crusaders – Click here to bet
The Hurricanes are 5th on the log and while they can’t be caught, if other results go their way they could move up to 4th and even possibly 3rd. The Canes were away to the Blues last weekend going down by 11 points on the road. Their last home game was a 49 point victory over Moana Pasifika back in Week 12.
The Crusaders are 2nd on the log and they are virtually certain of finishing there. They hosted the Waratahs last week and were too strong, winning 42-14 while their last away game was a comfortable 34 point victory over Moana Pasifika.
Handicap: Hurricanes +4.5
This is a dangerous game to bet on and I am going to go for half-time/full-time play here with the Hurricanes to lead, but for the Crusaders to come back and win the match.
Suggested Bet: Half-time/Full-time, Hurricanes/Crusaders at 5/1
Waratahs v Moana Pasifika – Click here to bet
The Waratahs are 6th on the table and cannot move up or down in the final weekend. The Waratahs were well beaten last week when they travelled to Christchurch and went down 42-18 to the Crusaders. The week before that they had beaten the Drua 32-18 at home.
Moana Pasifika have lost all 13 matches and sit comfortably at the bottom of the table. They came very close to victory last week when they played the Drua away going down 47-46.
Handicap: Waratahs -14.5
The Total Points Line has been set high at 63.5, but I don’t think it is high enough in a game where I expect both teams to throw it around and the tries to flow.
Suggested Bet: Over 63.5 points at 17/20
Western Force v Chiefs – Click here to bet
The Force are currently 9th on the log, but if either the Highlanders or Reds lose their matches they could climb into the playoff spot with a victory. They were well beaten by the Rebels away last week going down 52-14, but they have been very strong at home and the week before that beat an admittedly understrength Brumbies side 34-19 in Perth.
The Chiefs are guaranteed to finish top of the log and they have understandably made a few changes to the team to keep players fresh for the playoff. Last week they were too strong for the Brumbies in Canberra winning 31-21 and their last home game was a 23-12 win over the Hurricanes.
The Force will know what is required of them going into this one and with the Chiefs not at full strength and the Force’s home record very impressive I am going for a home win.
Suggested Bet: Western Force win at 27/20
Note: All prices correct at the time of writing but are subject to change
