One final assignment remains in the Autumn Nations Series as Wales host South Africa at the Principality Stadium on Saturday evening. We’ll take a look at the match from a betting angle and offer up a couple of bets for consideration.
Wales
Wales beat Japan a couple of weeks ago a result that brought immense relief to players, coaches and fans alike. Things were always going to be tough against the All Blacks though and last weekend they were brought back down to earth by New Zealand, going down 26–52 at the Principality Stadium. While there were one or two encouraging moments with ball in hand, defensive frailties were once again brutally exposed.
Wales Lineup
15 Blair Murray, 14 Ellis Mee, 13 Joe Roberts, 12 Joe Hawkins, 11 Rio Dyer, 10 Dan Edwards, 9 Kieran Hardy, 8 Aaron Wainwright, 7 Alex Mann, 6 Taine Plumtree, 5 Rhys Davies, 4 Ben Carter, 3 Keiron Assiratti, 2 Dewi Lake, 1 Gareth Thomas.
Replacements: 16 Brodie Coghlan, 17 Danny Southworth, 18 Christian Coleman, 19 James Ratti, 20 Morgan Morse, 21 Reuben Morgan-Williams, 22 Callum Sheedy, 23 Ben Thomas.
South Africa
South Africa delivered yet another statement win last weekend as they physically dominated Ireland, especially at scrum time, which went a long way towards deciding the outcome. The final score was 24–13 to the Boks, and while Ireland showed tremendous guts to stay within two scores, there was no doubting who the better side was.
That result made it seven wins in a row for South Africa as they continue to underline why they are widely regarded as the best team in the world.
South Africa Lineup
15 Damian Willemse, 14 Ethan Hooker, 13 Damian de Allende, 12 Andre Esterhuizen, 11 Canan Moodie, 10 Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu, 9 Morne van den Berg, 8 Jasper Wiese, 7 Franco Mostert, 6 Siya Kolisi (captain), 5 Ruan Nortje, 4 Jean Kleyn, 3 Wilco Louw, 2 Johan Grobbelaar, 1 Gerhard Steenekamp.
Replacements: 16 Bongi Mbonambi, 17 Zachary Porthen, 18 Asenathi Ntlabakanye, 19 Eben Etzebeth, 20 Marco van Staden, 21 Ben-Jason Dixon, 22 Kwagga Smith, 23 Cobus Reinach.
Head-to-head
The two sides have met six times since 2022 with South Africa winning five of the six matches. The only match Wales managed to win was the second test of their tour to South Africa in 2022 where the match ended 12-13. Wales hosted South Africa last year in the Autum Nations Series but ended up losing that match 12-45. This was the last time the two sides played against each other.
Betting and Verdict
South Africa are heavy favourites to win this weekend and are trading at 1.002 for the win while Wales are trading at 23.00. The draw is currently at 91.00.
The current handicap is South Africa -39.5
Although Wales are not the side they used to be, in their last few matches against tough opponents they have still manged to score points. The handicap is currently Wales [+39.5] trading at 1.91 and South Africa have not beaten Wales by more than 35 points once in their last ten matches.
Suggested Bet: Handicap, Wales [+39.5] at 1.91
Both sides will know how important the start is and will be desperate to play in the right areas early. That usually means the team fielding the kick-off looks to clear their lines and find touch, gaining territory and relieving pressure. With that in mind, I’m expecting the first stoppage in play to be a lineout.
Suggested Bet: First stoppage in play, lineout at 2.30.
Click here for all Wales v South Africa Markets
Note: All prices correct at the time of writing but are subject to change
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