South Africa open their end-of-year tour with a clash against Japan at Wembley Stadium in London on Saturday. We look at the match from a betting angle and highlight a couple of suggested bets.
South Africa
South Africa are coming off the back of defending their Rugby Championship title. They won four of their six matches beating Australia, New Zealand and Argentina twice. Their last match against Argentina, which was played in England, saw them win 29-27.
South Africa Lineup
Starting XV: 15 Cheslin Kolbe, 14 Ethan Hooker, 13 Jesse Kriel, 12 Damian de Allende, 11 Kurt-Lee Arendse, 10 Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu, 9 Cobus Reinach, 8 Jasper Wiese, 7 Franco Mostert, 6 Siya Kolisi (c), 5 Lood de Jager, 4 RG Snyman, 3 Zachary Porthen, 2 Malcolm Marx, 1 Ox Nche
Replacements: 16 Johan Grobbelaar, 17 Gerhard Steenekamp, 18 Wilco Louw, 19 Ruan Nortje, 20 Andre Esterhuizen, 21 Kwagga Smith, 22 Grant Williams, 23 Manie Libbok
Japan
Japan arrive in London following a mixed Pacific Nations Cup campaign that ended with a narrow 27–33 loss to Fiji. They also fell short against Australia last weekend, going down 15–19 in Tokyo. The Brave Blossoms have managed three wins in their last five matches and will look to test themselves against the reigning world champions in a country where they pulled off probably the greatest rugby upset of all time back in Brighton in the RWC 2015.
Japan starting Lineup
Starting XV: 15–Yoshitaka Yazaki, 14–Kippei Ishida, 13–Dylan Riley, 12–Charlie Lawrence, 11–Tomoki Osada, 10–Lee Seung-sin, 9–Shinobu Fujiwara, 8–Michael Leitch (captain), 7–Kanji Shimokawa, 6–Ben Gunter, 5–Warner Dearns, 4–Jack Cornelsen, 3–Shuhei Takeuchi, 2–Kenji Sato, 1–Kenta Kobayashi
Replacements: 16–Shodai Hirao, 17–Ryosuke Iwaihara, 18–Keijiro Tamefusa, 19–Tyler Paul, 20–Faulua Makisi, 21–Kenta Fukuda, 22–Sam Greene, 23–Tiennan Costley.
Head-to-head
The two sides last met back in 2019 in the Rugby World Cup where South Africa won the match 3-26. The most famous clash was in RWC 2015 in Brighton where Japan defied a 40 point handicap to beat the Boks 34-32.
Betting and Verdict
South Africa are an unbackable 1.001 for the win with Japan trading at 34.00 and the draw is currently at 51.00
The handicap is very close to where it started in Brighton with SA -37.5 at the time of writing.
Given the gulf in class, this should be a case of how big the winning margin will be rather than who wins. The Springboks’ power game should wear Japan down, though the Brave Blossoms’ tempo and discipline might keep things respectable for a period.
Suggested Bet: South Africa –37.5 handicap at 0.90
Arendse remains one of South Africa’s most lethal finishers and is always alert to turnover opportunities and broken play. With the Springboks expected to dominate possession and width against Japan, he’s well-positioned to strike early off quick ball or a counterattack.
Suggested Bet: Kurt-Lee Arendse to score the first South African try at 8.50
Click here for all South Africa v Japan Markets
Note: All prices correct at the time of writing but are subject to change
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