The most anticipated rugby match of the year is upon us as Ireland travel to Loftus Versfeld to take on South Africa in the first match of a two match series. We will look at the game from a betting angle and highlight a few bets.
SOUTH AFRICA
South Africa are coming in off the back of their fourth Rugby World Cup title and are currently ranked world number one. 2 weeks ago they travelled to Twickenham to play Wales. Coach Erasmus named a side that was missing a few star players due to injuries and club duties however they still managed to pull off an impressive 52-16 win. Only two South African URC sides managed to make the quarter-finals this year with the Bulls going on to make the final.
South Africa starting lineup
15 Willie le Roux, 14 Cheslin Kolbe, 13 Jesse Kriel, 12 Damian de Allende, 11 Kurt-Lee Arendse, 10 Handre Pollard, 9 Faf de Klerk; 1 Ox Nche, 2 Bongi Mbonambi, 3 Frans Malherbe, 4 Eben Etzebeth, 5 Franco Mostert, 6 Siya Kolisi (c), 7 Pieter-Steph du Toit, 8 Kwagga Smith.
Replacements: 16 Malcolm Marx, 17 Gerhard Steenekamp, 18 Vincent Koch, 19 Salmaan Moerat, 20 RG Snyman, 21 Marco van Staden, 22 Grant Williams, 23 Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu.
IRELAND
Ireland had a successful 6 Nations campaign where they won four of their five matches, winning the competition. Their only loss came against England away from home in the fourth round. The Irish club sides had a solid season with three of the four sides finishing in the top eight of the URC table. Munster had a successful tour to South Africa beating both the Lions and the Bulls, however, Leinster did not have the same luck, losing to the Bulls in the semi-finals at Loftus. Leinster also lost in the final of the Champions Cup.
Ireland starting lineup
15 Jamie Osborne, 14 Calvin Nash, 13. Robbie Henshaw,12. Bundee Aki, 11. James Lowe, 10. Jack Crowley, 9. Craig Casey, 1. Andrew Porter, 2. Dan Sheehan,3. Tadhg Furlong, 4. Joe McCarthy, 5. Tadhg Beirne, 6. Peter O’Mahony, 7. Josh van der Flier, 8. Caelan Doris,
Replacements: 16. Rónan Kelleher, 17. Cian Healy, 18. Finlay Bealham, 19. James Ryan, 20. Ryan Baird, 21. Conor Murray, 22. Ciaran Frawley, 23. Garry Ringrose
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HEAD-TO-HEAD
South Africa and Ireland have played each other twenty-eight times in history with South Africa winning eighteen matches, Ireland winning nine and one ending in a draw. The last three encounters between the two sides have ended in Irelands favour with the most recent result ending 13-8 in the group stages of the Rugby World Cup.
Ireland travelled out to South Africa in 2016 for a three-match series which ended 2-1 in favour of South Africa. They managed to win the opening match but went on to lose the next two. The two sides have played four series over the years with South Africa winning all four.
Betting
South Africa are favourites to win the match and are trading at 1.35 while Ireland are trading at 3.60 with the draw at 29.00 The handicap at the time of writing is Ireland [+7.5] at 1.95.
Prediction
If we look at the last ten results between South Africa and Ireland, going all the way back to 2006, Ireland have either won the match or lost by a margin of less than 7.5 points on nine of the ten occasions. We can also consider that Munster won the match against the Bulls at Loftus by five points and Leinster lost their match by only five points. I can see Ireland coming out with a bang as they look to shock the rugby world. They will either win the match or take it right to the very end and so I see the handicap as a good bet.
Suggested Bet: Handicap, Ireland [+7.5] at 1.95.
The total points in the last three matches between the two sides have been 42 or less on every occasion. With probably the best two defensive sides in the world and the enormity of the occasion, I can see the match being a low scoring one. The bet of under 48.5 total points may be one to capitalise on.
Suggested Bet: Total points under 48.5 at 2.10.
Click here for all South Africa v Ireland betting
Note: All prices correct at the time of writing but are subject to change
