The Rugby Championship kicks of this weekend with the first match of round 1 taking place at Ellis Park in Johannesburg as South Africa host Australia. We look at the match from a betting angle and offer up a couple of play for your consideration.
South Africa
With the Lions touring Australia, South Africa faced a lighter-than-usual June/July test schedule. They met the Barbarians, Italy twice, and Georgia, winning all four matches comfortably. Their most recent outing was a dominant 55–10 victory over Georgia. Coach Rassie Erasmus has named a powerful starting XV for the opening fixture as the Springboks set out to defend their title.
South Africa Starting Lineup
15 Aphelele Fassi; 14 Edwill van der Merwe; 13 Jesse Kriel; 12 Andre Esterhuizen; 11 Kurt-Lee Arendse; 10 Manie Libbok; 9 Grant Williams; 8 Siya Kolisi (captain); 7 Pieter-Steph du Toit; 6 Marco van Staden; 5 Lood de Jager; 4 Eben Etzebeth; 3 Wilco Louw; 2 Malcolm Marx; 1 Ox Nche.
Replacements: 16 Bongi Mbonambi; 17 Jan-Hendrik Wessels; 18 Asenathi Ntlabakanye; 19 Franco Mostert; 20 Kwagga Smith; 21 Cobus Reinach; 22 Canan Moodie; 23 Damian Willemse.
Australia
Australia come into the Rugby Championship on the back of a disappointing Lions series defeat, losing 2–1. However, their performances in the final two tests suggested a turning point, as they produced their best rugby of the series. The momentum culminated in a decisive 22–12 victory in the final test, a result that could serve as a springboard as they shift focus to the Rugby Championship.
Australia starting Lineup
15 Tom Wright, 14 Max Jorgensen, 13 Joseph-Aukuso Suaalii, 12 Len Ikitau, 11 Dylan Pietsch, 10 James O’Connor, 9 Nic White, 8 Harry Wilson (captain), 7 Fraser McReight, 6 Tom Hooper, 5 Will Skelton, 4 Nick Frost, 3 Taniela Tupou, 2 Billy Pollard, 1 James Slipper.
Replacements: 16 Brandon Paenga-Amosa, 17 Angus Bell, 18 Zane Nonggorr, 19 Jeremy Williams, 20 Langi Gleeson, 21 Nick Champion de Crespigny, 22 Tate McDermott, 23 Andrew Kellaway
Head-to-head
South Africa have won four of the last five meetings between the sides, including a convincing 30–12 victory away from home last year. Australia’s last win over the Springboks came back in 2022.
Betting and Verdict – click here to bet
South Africa are favourites to win the match and are trading at 1.12 for the win while Australia are trading at 8.00. The draw is currently at 51.00.
Australia enter this match as underdogs, but I believe they may be the most prepared side in the tournament. Their loss in the Lions series gave them an ideal opportunity to test themselves against some of the best opposition in the world, while South Africa’s build-up was limited to comparatively weaker opponents. Although I expect South Africa to claim the win, I anticipate Australia will push them hard and keep the contest extremely tight.
Suggested Bet: Handicap, Australia [+18.5] at 1.85.
South Africa boast one of the most dominant forward packs in world rugby. Up against an Australian side with a well-organised defensive line, the Springboks are unlikely to look wide early on and will instead aim to go straight through the middle. For that reason, my pick for the first try scorer is a forward.
Suggested Bet: First try forward at 2.50.
Click here for all South Africa v Australia Markets
Note: All prices correct at the time of writing but are subject to change
