After a week’s break, the Six Nations returns for Round 4, which promises to be pivotal. Ireland will be able to put one hand on the trophy if they can beat France this weekend, but if things don’t go their way the door is wide open for France or England to win it. We look at this week’s match from a betting angle.
Ireland remains firm favourites to win their third Six Nations in a row and the bookies have them trading at 1.62. France has an opportunity to rock the boat this weekend and are trading at 2.70 to win the tournament while England are trading at 12.00.
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SATURDAY
Ireland v France – Click here to bet
Ireland continued their impressive run of form beating Wales in the last round 18-27 away from home to make it six wins in a row. They have won eight of their last ten matches with their only two defeats coming against New Zealand and South Africa.
After losing to England in round 2, France came out firing against Italy in round 3 scoring a staggering 73 points to Italy’s 24. They have now also won eight of their last ten matches in all competitions.
Head-to-Head
Ireland have won their last two matches against France with France winning the three matches before that. In recent years it has become one of the most highly contested rugby matches with the two best teams battling it out every year to decide the Six Nations. The match between the two sides last year in France ended 17-38 in favour of Ireland.
Betting and Verdict
Ireland are favourites to win the match and are trading at 1.91 while France are trading at 2.10. The draw is currently at 23.00.
The game is nearly too close to call and may come down to the bounce of the ball, however, with three Irish greats (Conor Murray, Peter O’Mahony and Cian Healy) all playing their last matches for Ireland at home, I can see this being the fire in the belly the Irish team needs to beat France.
Handicap: Ireland [-0.5]
Suggested bet: Ireland to win at 1.91.
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Scotland v Wales – Click here to bet
Scotland are coming off the back of a narrow loss to England in round 3 as they failed to defend the Calcutta Cup. In a match for the ages both teams went full tilt, but a late missed conversion from Scotland saw them lose the match by one point, the game ended 16-15.
Wales are still yet to win a match since 2023 after losing their last match to Ireland in round 3 with the game ending 18-27. It may have been a loss but it was an improved performance from Wales who had a chance of winning with 20 min to play.
Head-to-Head
Scotland have won their last two matches against Wales with Wales winning the two before that. The last time the two sides played, the match ended 26-27 in favour of Scotland in Wales in what was a game of 2 halves with Wales looking dead and buried at half time.
Betting and Verdict
Scotland are favourites to win the match and are trading at 1.10 while Wales are trading at 9.50. The draw is currently at 46.00.
Four of the last five matches between the two sides have been decided by four points or less. With Wales looking a different team since Gatlands departure, I can see Wales putting up a tough fight this weekend against Scotland.
Handicap: Wales [+16.5]
Suggested bet: Handicap, Wales [+16.5] at 1.90
SUNDAY
England v Italy – Click here to bet
England finally managed to secure back-to-back wins for the first time since last years Six Nations. They managed to pull off a narrow win against Scotland in round 3 at home, winning the match 16-15 and if France beat Ireland they still have a shot at winning the Six Nations.
Italy were hoping to put up a better fight against France, but unfortunately got the harsh end of French rugby and lost the match 24-73 at home. This came after a brilliant win against Wales in round 2 that saw them win the match 22-15 in Italy.
Head-to-Head
Italy have never beaten England in a rugby match since the two sides first played in 1991. The last match between the two sides ended 24-27 in favour of England in Rome last year.
Betting and Verdict
England are favourites to win the match and are trading at 1.05 while Italy are trading at 16.00. The draw is currently at 71.00.
England don’t win a lot of matches by big margins these days. They look to nail you down in your half and take points whenever they can, this often means when they win, they don’t win by much.
Excluding two matches against Japan, over the last 19 England matches, their highest winning margin has been 6 points. Italy will always put up a fight and after last rounds embarrassment they will have a point to prove and so I can see this match being closer than some might think.
Handicap: Italy [+22.5]
Suggested bet: Handicap, Italy [+22.5] at 1.85
Prices correct at time of posting but subject to change.
