New Zealand v South Africa, Rugby Championship Betting Preview, Saturday 13 September
We head into round 4 of the Rugby Championships this weekend as New Zealand host South Africa at the Sky Stadium in Wellington. We’ll look at the game from a betting perspective, touching on outright odds, team form, and some suggested plays.
Outright Betting
New Zealand remain firm favourites for the title, trading at 1.36. South Africa are priced at 5.50, Australia at 6.00, and Argentina are outsiders at 41.00.
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First Test Recap
New Zealand won last weekend’s clash 24–17. The All Blacks started strongly with early tries from Narawa and Will Jordan, while South Africa managed just a penalty in the first half. The Springboks improved after the break, scoring twice, but ultimately fell short against a disciplined Kiwi side.
New Zealand
The All Blacks sit top of the Rugby Championship table, having won two of their three games. Their only defeat came away to Argentina, but at home they’ve been near-unbeatable, winning their last six matches on New Zealand soil.
New Zealand Starting Lineup
New Zealand: 15 Damian McKenzie, 14 Will Jordan, 13 Billy Proctor, 12 Jordie Barrett, 11 Leroy Carter, 10 Beauden Barrett, 9 Noah Hotham, 8 Wallace Sititi, 7 Ardie Savea, 6 Simon Parker, 5 Tupou Vaa’i, 4 Scott Barrett (captain), 3 Tyrel Lomax, 2 Samisoni Taukei’aho, 1 Ethan de Groot.
Replacements: 16 Brodie McAlister, 17 Tamaiti Williams, 18 Fletcher Newell, 19 Fabian Holland, 20 Du’Plessis Kirifi, 21 Finlay Christie, 22 Quinn Tupaea, 23 Ruben Love
South Africa
South Africa will be looking to bounce back after their loss last weekend to keep their Rugby Championship hopes alive. The Boks have been inconsistent in this campaign, they opened with a heavy defeat to Australia at Ellis Park, bounced back with a solid win over the Wallabies in Cape Town, but came up short against New Zealand in Auckland. They remain dangerous, but need a big response if they are to stay in the hunt for the title.
South Africa starting Lineup
South Africa: 15 Aphelele Fassi, 14 Cheslin Kolbe, 13 Canan Moodie, 12 Damian Willemse, 11 Ethan Hooker, 10 Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu, 9 Cobus Reinach, 8 Jasper Wiese, 7 Pieter-Steph du Toit, 6 Siya Kolisi (captain), 5 Ruan Nortje, 4 Lood de Jager, 3 Thomas du Toit, 2 Malcolm Marx, 1 Ox Nche.
Replacements: 16 Marnus van der Merwe, 17 Jan-Hendrik Wessels, 18 Wilco Louw, 19 RG Snyman, 20 Kwagga Smith, 21 Grant Williams, 22 Manie Libbok, 23 Andre Esterhuizen
Head-to-Head
New Zealand managed to beat South Africa for the first time in five matches last weekend. South Africa had won the previous four matches over a span of two years.
Betting and Verdict
New Zealand are favourites to win and are trading at 1.57 while South Africa are trading at 2.75 for the win. The draw is currently at 23.00.
Handicap: New Zealand [-4.5] at 1.95
New Zealand are once again showing signs of being the most dominant side in world rugby. Playing at home, and with the chance to strengthen their grip on the Rugby Championship, I expect them to put in another commanding performance and win this match comfortably.
Suggested Bet: Handicap, New Zealand [-4.5] at 1.95
Last weekend’s clash produced 17 points in the first half before the game opened up with 24 more in the second. As is often the case at this level, both sides defended ferociously early on, but as the legs tired the space began to appear. I expect a similar pattern this week, with a cagey first forty giving way to a more open second half.
Suggested Bet: Highest scoring half – Second at 2.00
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Note: All prices correct at the time of writing but are subject to change
