Round 3 of the Rugby Championship brings us one of the fiercest rivalries in World Rugby and arguably, in all of world sport.
This weekend, New Zealand hosts South Africa at the iconic Eden Park, a ground where the home team have not tasted defeat in 50 matches. In this article, we’ll break down the matchup from a betting perspective and offer a few suggested wagers.
New Zealand
The All Blacks began their Rugby Championship campaign in emphatic fashion, defeating Argentina 41–24 on the road. However, they stumbled in their second outing, falling 29–23 to the same opposition and ending their five-match unbeaten streak. Despite that loss, New Zealand has still won eight of their last ten matches a solid run of form heading into this crucial encounter.
New Zealand Starting Lineup
- Ethan de Groot, 2. Codie Taylor, 3. Fletcher Newell, 4. Scott Barrett (c), 5. Tupou Vaa’i, 6. Simon Parker, 7. Ardie Savea (vc), 8. Wallace Sititi, 9. Finlay Christie 10. Beauden Barrett, 11. Rieko Ioane, 12. Jordie Barrett, 13. Billy Proctor, 14. Emoni Narawa, 15. Will Jordan
Replacements: 16. Samisoni Taukei’aho, 17. Tamaiti Williams, 18. Tyrel Lomax, 19. Fabian Holland, 20. Du’Plessis Kirifi, 21. Kyle Preston*, 22. Quinn Tupaea, 23. Damian McKenzie
South Africa
The Springboks didn’t get off to the start they wanted in this year’s Rugby Championship, suffering a 38–22 defeat at home to Australia in their opening match and that after racing to a 22-0 lead. However, they responded well in the return fixture, securing a 30–22 victory in Cape Town to keep their rugby championship hopes alive.
Overall, South Africa has won four of their last five matches in 2025, but they will need to be at their best to win at Eden Park.
South Africa starting Lineup
15 Willie Le Roux, 14 Cheslin Kolbe, 13 Jesse Kriel (c), 12 Damian de Allende, 11 Canan Moodie, 10 Handre Pollard, 9 Grant Williams, 8 Siya Kolisi, 7 Pieter-Steph du Toit, 6 Marco van Staden, 5 Ruan Nortje, 4 Eben Etzebeth, 3 Thomas du Toit, 2 Malcolm Marx, 1 Ox Nche
Replacements: 16 Jan-Hendrik Wessels, 17 Boan Venter, 18 Wilco Louw, 19 Lood de Jager, 20 Kwagga Smith, 21 Cobus Reinach, 22 Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu, 23 Ethan Hooker
Head-to-head
South Africa has enjoyed an impressive run against New Zealand over the past two years, winning the last four meetings between the two sides. Their most recent victory came in last year’s Rugby Championship, where they edged the All Blacks 18–12. The last time New Zealand defeated South Africa was back in 2023, with a commanding 35–20 win on home soil.
Betting and Verdict
New Zealand are favourites to win and are trading at 1.63 while South Africa are trading at 2.60 for the win. The draw is currently at 23.00.
Although South Africa have a brilliant record against New Zealand in recent years and are coming off the back of a win, I think New Zealand will be too strong for them this weekend. They will be hungry for revenge after losing to South Africa twice last year and of course they have that incredible Eden Park record to protect.
Suggested Bet: Handicap, New Zealand [-3.5] at 1.95
New Zealand have scored 23 points or more in all of their last ten matches showing how good they are when it comes to attack and converting opportunities into points. Even though South Africa have one of the best defensive sides in the world, we saw how easily Australia opened that defence in the first round and I think New Zealand will be able to do that again.
Suggested Bet: New Zealand total points over 25.5 at 1.83
Click here for all New Zealand v South Africa Markets
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