Fresh off a famous win over Australia, Italy now face their biggest challenge of the Autumn Nations Series as they host South Africa on Saturday afternoon at the Allianz Stadium. We look at the match from a betting angle and round off with a few suggested plays.
Italy
In their first match of the Autum Nations Series, Italy pulled off a brilliant win over Australia at home with the match ending 26-19. This was their first match of this part of the season with their previous matches taking place July this year where they lost twice to South Africa away from home with a team missing a number of 1st choice players. They have won two of their last five matches over all competitions.
Italy Lineup
Starting XV: 15–Ange Capuozzo, 14–Louis Lynagh, 13–Juan Ignacio Brex, 12–Tommaso Menoncello, 11–Monty Ioane, 10–Paolo Garbisi, 9–Stephen Varney, 8–Lorenzo Cannone, 7–Manuel Zuliani, 6–Ross Vintcent, 5–Andrea Zambonin, 4–Niccolò Cannone, 3–Marco Riccioni, 2–Giacomo Nicotera, 1–Danilo Fischetti.
Replacements: 16–Tommaso Di Bartolomeo, 17–Mirco Spagnolo, 18–Simone Ferrari, 19–Federico Ruzza, 20–Riccardo Favretto, 21–David Odiase, 22–Martin Page-Relo, 23–Tommaso Allan.
South Africa
Last weekend South Africa proved yet again why they are the best side in the world as they beat France in their own back yard with 14 players for half the game. The end of the match saw South Africa run away with it as they scored 32 points to Frances 17. This was their fifth win in a row after coming off the back of winning the Rugby Championship back in October.
South Africa Lineup
Starting XV: 15–Damian Willemse, 14–Edwill van der Merwe, 13–Canan Moodie, 12–Ethan Hooker, 11–Kurt-Lee Arendse, 10–Handré Pollard, 9–Morne van den Berg, 8–Marco van Staden, 7–Ben-Jason Dixon, 6–Siya Kolisi, 5–Franco Mostert, 4–Jean Kleyn, 3–Zachary Porthen, 2–Johan Grobbelaar, 1–Boan Venter.
Replacements: 16–Gerhard Steenekamp, 17–Wilco Louw, 18–RG Snyman, 19–Ruan Nortje, 20–Andre Esterhuizen, 21–Kwagga Smith, 22–Grant Williams, 23–Manie Libbok.
Head-to-head
The two sides played a two-match series in July where South Africa hosted both of the matches. The first match was a bit of a tighter contest with South Africa winning the game 42-24 while the second match was a runaway with South Africa winning the game 45-0. The last time the two sides met in Italy, South Africa won that match 21-63.
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Betting and Verdict
South Africa are favourites going into this weekend and are trading at 1.10 for the win while Italy are trading at 8.50. The draw is currently at 41.00.
Although Italy did pull of a massive win last weekend against Australia, this South African side has proven week in and week out that they are one of the best teams to ever play the game and so no matter how another team is performing, I think there is always a strong chance of them beating the opposition comfortably.
Suggested Bet: Handicap, South Africa [-18.5] at 2.10
In two of the last three matches between the two sides, we have seen a large amount of points scored. The first test in South Africa earlier this year saw a total of 66 points scored between both sides while the last fixture in Italy saw a staggering 84 points scored between the two sides. For this reason, I think we will see yet another high scoring match this weekend.
Suggested Bet: Total Points over 55.5 at 1.93.
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Note: All prices correct at the time of writing but are subject to change
