Ireland and South Africa met twice in 2024 in South Africa, with each side winning once. They now reconvene at the Aviva Stadium in Dublin for what is one of the most anticipated clashes of the Autumn. Below, we break down the match from a betting perspective with a couple of suggested plays.
Ireland
After a disappointing loss to New Zealand in Chicago three weeks ago, Ireland bounced back and pulled off two very solid wins against Japan and Australia. They managed to beat Japan 41-10 and more impressively managed to beat Australia 46-19 in front of their home crowd. Although some are saying that Ireland are not the team they once were, in their 10 matches they have played this year, they have only lost twice.
Ireland Lineup:
15 Mack Hansen, 14 Tommy O’Brien, 13 Garry Ringrose, 12 Bundee Aki, 11 James Lowe, 10 Sam Prendergast, 9 Jamison Gibson-Park, 8 Caelan Doris (captain), 7 Josh van der Flier, 6 Ryan Baird, 5 Tadhg Beirne, 4 James Ryan, 3 Tadhg Furlong, 2 Dan Sheehan, 1 Andrew Porter.
Replacements: 16 Rónan Kelleher, 17 Paddy McCarthy, 18 Finlay Bealham, 19 Cian Prendergast, 20 Jack Conan, 21 Craig Casey, 22 Jack Crowley, 23 Tom Farrell.
South Africa
South Africa extended their outstanding run of form last weekend with a 12–32 win over Italy in Genoa, achieved despite playing more than half the match with 14 men. Although the scoreboard suggests dominance, the contest was tight for long stretches before the Boks pulled clear late.
The world champions have now won six matches in a row and 11 of their last 13. Their depth is once again evident, with several changes not impacting standards and the 2 changes from the starting XV that played the French are both enforced through injury or suspension.
South Africa lineup:
15 Damian Willemse, 14 Canan Moodie, 13 Jesse Kriel, 12 Damian de Allende, 11 Cheslin Kolbe, 10 Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu, 9 Cobus Reinach, 8 Jasper Wiese, 7 Pieter-Steph du Toit, 6 Siya Kolisi, 5 Ruan Nortje, 4 Eben Etzebeth, 3 Thomas du Toit, 2 Malcolm Marx, 1 Boan Venter.
Replacements: 16 Johan Grobbelaar, 17 Gerhard Steenekamp, 18 Wilco Louw, 19 RG Snyman, 20 Kwagga Smith, 21 Andre Esterhuizen, 22 Grant Williams, 23 Manie Libbok
Head-to-head
The two sides have developed a fierce rivalry over the last few years with each encounter being a tense spectacle. Although South Africa are currently the best team in the world and have a winning record again every other international side, Ireland seem to be their bogey team. In the last five matches between the two sides, Ireland have won four of the five matches with South Africa only win coming at home last year where the match ended 27-20 at Loftus. The last time the two sides met in Dublin, Ireland won 19-16 in 2022 and South Africa’s last win in Dublin was in 2012.
Betting and Verdict
Match Odds:
- South Africa 1.47
- Ireland 3.10
- Draw 26.00
Ireland have not lost to South Africa by more than seven points in over 20 years, the last time was in 2004 (26–17 in Cape Town). Fourteen clashes since then have all been tight.
South Africa deserve favouritism based on form, but history and style matchups suggest another tight Test.
Suggested Bet: Winning Margin South Africa by under 12.5 point at 2.50
Total Points Angle
When the sides met earlier this year in South Africa, both games went over 47 points. However, history in Europe tells a different story:
- The previous three Tests in Europe all produced 41 points or fewer.
- Both sides are excellent defensively.
- Dublin conditions often suppress scoring and it will be cold with rain at various points in the day.
Suggested Bet: Total points under 46.5 at 1.98
Click here for all Ireland v South Africa Markets
Note: All prices correct at the time of writing but are subject to change
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