Ireland host Australia this Saturday in a fixture that will go a long way to shaping the narrative of both teams’ seasons. Below we take a look at the game from a betting perspective and round off with a couple of suggested plays.
Ireland
After a disappointing opening-round defeat to New Zealand in the Autumn Nations Series, Ireland bounced back with a convincing 41–10 win over Japan in Dublin last weekend. That puts them at four wins from their last five outings, with the All Blacks loss the only blemish.
Ireland Lineup
Starting XV: 15–Hugo Keenan, 14–Mack Hansen, 13–Robbie Henshaw, 12–Bundee Aki, 11–James Lowe, 10–Sam Prendergast, 9–Jamison Gibson-Park, 8–Caelan Doris (captain), 7–Josh van der Flier, 6–Tadhg Beirne, 5–James Ryan, 4–Joe McCarthy, 3–Finlay Bealham, 2–Ronan Kelleher, 1–Andrew Porter.
Replacements: 16–Gus McCarthy, 17–Cian Healy, 18–Tom O’Toole, 19–Iain Henderson, 20–Peter O’Mahony, 21–Craig Casey, 22–Jack Crowley, 23–Garry Ringrose.
Australia
After beating the British & Irish Lions in the third Test and following it up with a victory over South Africa in Johannesburg, it briefly looked like Australia were turning the corner. However, back-to-back losses to England (25–7) and Italy (26–19) have brought them back down to earth. They have now lost four of their last five matches and remain a long way from consistency required to challenge for the 2027 RWC on home soil.
Australia starting Lineup
Starting XV: 15–Tom Wright, 14–Andrew Kellaway, 13–Joseph-Akuso Suaalii, 12–Len Ikitau, 11–Max Jorgensen, 10–Noah Lolesio, 9–Jake Gordon, 8–Harry Wilson (captain), 7–Fraser McReight, 6–Rob Valetini, 5–Jeremy Williams, 4–Nick Frost, 3–Taniela Tupou, 2–Brandon Paenga-Amosa, 1–James Slipper.
Replacements: 16–Billy Pollard, 17–Angus Bell, 18–Allan Alaalatoa, 19–Lukhan Salakaia-Loto, 20–Langi Gleeson, 21–Tate McDermott, 22–Tane Edmed, 23–Harry Potter.
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Head-to-head
These sides met at this exact stage last year, with Ireland edging a tight contest 22–19. Ireland have now won four in a row against Australia, last losing to the Wallabies in 2018.
Betting and Verdict
Ireland are favourites to win the match and are trading at 1.22 while Australia are trading at 5.00. The draw is currently at 29.00.
Both sides have played Japan in the last few weeks and while Australia only managed to beat them by four points, Ireland hammered them by 31 points. I think this gives a good estimate of where both teams are however, even though I do think Ireland will win, in their last four wins against Australia, they have not won by more than 5 points on any occasion. For this reason, I do think we will have a tight match on our hands.
Suggested Bet: Handicap, Australia [+10.5] at 1.91.
Another notable trend is the consistently low total points when these sides meet. Across the last five clashes, the highest total has been 47 points and the lowest just 23. Neither team tends to cut loose in this fixture.
Suggested Bet: Total points under 47.5 at 1.87
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Note: All prices correct at the time of writing but are subject to change
