Saturday night’s showdown in Paris sees France welcome Australia in a fixture that has historically produced fast starts and plenty of physicality. Both sides enter the match searching for rhythm after inconsistent campaigns, but with the bookmakers heavily favouring the hosts, the betting lines offer a number of interesting talking points. Let’s take a look at the matchup and identify where the value might lie.
France
France opened their Autumn Nations series with a disappointing loss to South Africa where the match ended 17-32. This was their fourth loss in a row as they lost all three tests against New Zealand over the June/July Internationals, albeit while missing their regular starters. They did however bounce back and beat Fiji last weekend, however, the result was not extremely convincing with the score ending 34-21 in match where they started 24 point favourites.
France Lineup:
15 Thomas Ramos, 14 Damian Penaud, 13 Nicolas Depoortere, 12 Gael Fickou, 11 Louis Bielle-Biarrey, 10 Romain Ntamack, 9 Maxime Lucu, 8 Gregory Alldritt (captain), 7 Charles Ollivon, 6 Anthony Jelonch, 5 Emmanuel Meafou, 4 Thibaud Flament, 3 Regis Montagne, 2 Julien Marchand, 1 Jean-Baptiste Gros.
Replacements: 16 Maxime Lamothe, 17 Rodrigue Neti, 18 Thomas Laclayat, 19 Romain Taofifenua, 20 Hugo Auradou, 21 Oscar Jegou, 22 Baptiste Jauneau, 23 Kalvin Gourgues.
Australia
Australia arrive in Paris on a three-match losing streak and in arguably their worst form of the season. They were outplayed 25–7 by England, stunned 26–19 by Italy, and then blown away 46–19 by Ireland last weekend.
The Wallabies’ attack has lacked fluency and their defence has conceded 26+ points in four of their last five matches. Their physicality and breakdown accuracy have also fallen off compared to their earlier-season performances and it is no surprise that the squad has been freshened up a bit.
Australia Lineup:
15 Max Jorgensen, 14 Harry Potter, 13 Joseph-Aukuso Suaalii, 12 Len Ikitau, 11 Dylan Pietsch, 10 Carter Gordon, 9 Jake Gordon, 8 Harry Wilson (captain), 7 Fraser McReight, 6 Tom Hooper, 5 Nick Frost, 4 Jeremy Williams, 3 Taniela Tupou, 2 Billy Pollard, 1 Angus Bell.
Replacements: 16 Matt Feassler, 17 Aiden Ross, 18 Allan Alaalatoa, 19 Rob Valentini, 20 Carlo Tizzano, 21 Kalani Thomas, 22 Tane Edmed, 23 Filipo Daugunu.
Head-to-head
These sides have produced competitive fixtures in recent years, but France hold the upper hand with three wins from the last five. Crucially, the most recent matches in France have gone the way of Les Bleus, including a convincing 41–17 victory in 2023.
Betting and Verdict
Match Odds:
France 1.12
Draw 46.00
Australia 7.25
Handicap: France –15.5
Australia’s poor performances on this European tour make it difficult to make a case for them here. France, despite some inconsistency, look far more balanced and should have too much firepower in front of a home crowd.
Suggested Bet: Handicap, France [-15.5] at 1.91
Australia have scored 19 points or fewer in all five of their recent matches. With France fielding a strong defensive unit and the Wallabies lacking cohesion in attack, their scoring ceiling looks limited again.
Suggested Bet: Australia total points under 19.5 at 1.87
Click here for all France v Australia Markets
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